AFL premiership odds are the fixed decimal prices a bookmaker offers on each club to win the Grand Final, and a winning bet returns stake x price: $20 at $9.00 returns $180. The market prices every club in the competition, 18 of them in 2026, so its implied chances add to well over 100%, and the excess is the bookmaker's margin.
AFL premiership betting is one of the season markets, or futures, in AFL betting, alongside the ladder markets, the Brownlow and the Coleman. Each depends on how the competition is built, and that changed in 2026.
How the AFL's format shapes premiership odds
The AFL Regulations (11 February 2026 version) and the AFL's fixture set the shape:
- 18 clubs, each playing 23 home-and-away matches in 2026, ranked on premiership points (4 for a win, 2 for a draw) and then percentage (Regulation 2.5).
- The first ten clubs on the ladder play the finals under the Final Ten System, first used in 2026 (Regulation 2.6).
- The Grand Final is played at the MCG unless the AFL Commission decides otherwise (Regulation 2.7(g)); the 2026 Grand Final was played there on 26 September.
- The Tasmania Devils are due to enter the competition in 2028 as its 19th club, according to the AFL (checked October 2026).
What a ladder finish leads to under the final ten:
| Ladder finish | Finals path from 2026 |
|---|---|
| 1st to 4th | A week off during the Wildcard Round, then a qualifying final (1 v 4, 2 v 3), with a second chance after a loss |
| 5th and 6th | A week off, then an elimination final against a Wildcard winner |
| 7th to 10th | A Wildcard Final (7 v 10, 8 v 9), with the winners joining the top six |
| 11th to 18th | No finals |
The AFL says fifth plays the lower-ranked Wildcard winner and sixth the higher-ranked one. For the premiership market, the change means ten clubs can still win the flag after the home-and-away rounds instead of eight. Seventh and eighth now have to win an extra knockout game to reach the elimination finals, while ninth and tenth have a path they did not have at all. If the Devils enter in 2028 as the AFL plans, a premiership market from then will add up 19 chances instead of 18.
Top 4, top 8 and minor premiership markets
Ladder markets settle on where a club finishes after the home-and-away matches, whatever happens in the finals:
| Market | Wins if the club finishes | What the 2026 format adds |
|---|---|---|
| Minor premiership | 1st | Settles before the finals start |
| Top 4 | 1st to 4th | A week off and a second chance in the finals |
| Top 8 | 1st to 8th | Ninth and tenth lose this bet, although both play a Wildcard Final |
| Making the finals | 1st to 10th | Matches the ten-club cut |
| Wooden spoon | 18th | Unchanged |
Ladder positions cannot tie, so a ladder bet has no dead heat to settle. When clubs finish level on premiership points, the AFL separates them on percentage, then on the points and percentage from their matches against each other, and finally by lot (Regulation 2.5(c)).
A ladder market's fair chances add up to 100% for each club it pays: 400% for the top 4, 800% for the top 8 and, since 2026, 1,000% for making the finals. With illustrative prices, a making-the-finals market that adds up to 1,120% is a book of 1,120 / 1,000 = 112%. Under the proportional method, a club at $1.25 then has a fair chance of (1 / 1.25) x 1,000 / 1,120 = 71.43%, a fair price of 1 / 0.7143 = $1.40.
Worked: removing the margin from an 18-club premiership market
With illustrative prices for 18 clubs, not a real market: add 1 / price across every club, then divide each club's share by the total. Every figure is worked at full precision and rounded only for display.
| Club | Offered price | Implied chance | Fair chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club A | $5.00 | 20.00% | 16.40% | $6.10 |
| Club B | $6.00 | 16.67% | 13.67% | $7.32 |
| Club C | $7.00 | 14.29% | 11.71% | $8.54 |
| Club D | $8.00 | 12.50% | 10.25% | $9.76 |
| Club E | $9.00 | 11.11% | 9.11% | $10.98 |
| Club F | $11.00 | 9.09% | 7.45% | $13.42 |
| Club G | $13.00 | 7.69% | 6.31% | $15.85 |
| Club H | $15.00 | 6.67% | 5.47% | $18.29 |
| Club I | $19.00 | 5.26% | 4.32% | $23.17 |
| Club J | $23.00 | 4.35% | 3.57% | $28.05 |
| Club K | $29.00 | 3.45% | 2.83% | $35.37 |
| Club L | $34.00 | 2.94% | 2.41% | $41.47 |
| Club M | $41.00 | 2.44% | 2.00% | $50.00 |
| Club N | $51.00 | 1.96% | 1.61% | $62.20 |
| Club O | $67.00 | 1.49% | 1.22% | $81.71 |
| Club P | $101.00 | 0.99% | 0.81% | $123.18 |
| Club Q | $151.00 | 0.66% | 0.54% | $184.15 |
| Club R | $251.00 | 0.40% | 0.33% | $306.11 |
The 18 implied chances (1 / price) add to 1.219569, or 121.96%. Under the proportional method, each fair chance = implied chance / 1.219569, so each fair price = offered price x 1.219569: Club A's $5.00 becomes 5.00 x 1.219569 = $6.10. A book balanced at that percentage would keep 1 - 1 / 1.219569 = 18.0% of everything staked on it.
The fair prices give you a yardstick for other offers. If another bookmaker has Club A at $6.50, its edge against this estimate is 6.50 / 6.10 - 1 = 6.6%.
Treat that as a first check only: the proportional method spreads the margin evenly, while other methods, such as power, take more of it off the longshots. A longshot that looks close to fair here can look further from it under another method. How to remove the bookmaker margin compares the methods, and the fair odds calculator runs them on a market you type in.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A fair price worked from one bookmaker's market is an estimate, an edge against it can still lose, and a futures stake is tied up for months. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
The off-season: trade, free agency and next season's market
A premiership market for next season can move before a game is played, because the clubs themselves change. The AFL's 2026 player movement calendar (checked October 2026):
| Period | 2026 dates |
|---|---|
| Free agency | 2 to 9 October |
| Trade Period | 5 to 14 October |
| National draft | 19 and 20 November |
| Rookie draft | 23 November |
A club that lands a key player can shorten, and the club that loses him can drift. A price taken before a move carries that risk in both directions, and a bet struck in October runs until the next Grand Final, almost a year away. Futures betting explained sets out what that lock-up costs across sports.
The Coleman Medal and the Brownlow
The Coleman Medal goes to the player who kicks the most goals in the home-and-away matches, as determined by the AFL Official Statistician, so finals goals do not count. Two or more players on equal goals are joint winners (Regulation 23 of the AFL Regulations, 11 February 2026 version).
Example: Illustrative price. $10 on Player H for the Coleman at $17.00 has a face value of $170. If he finishes as one of two joint winners, the NSW Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules, for bookmakers authorised in NSW, pay $170 / 2 = $85, a $75 profit (clause 5.1.8).
Player futures carry a risk club futures do not. Where the NSW rule book applies, a bet is all-in unless the bookmaker has agreed or stated otherwise (clause 5.1.1). A bet on an injured or suspended player then stands, with no refund, and pays only if he still wins. The Brownlow adds its own eligibility rule, set out in Brownlow Medal betting.
Hedging late in the season: one bet on the Grand Final opponent
When your club makes the Grand Final, the hedge is a single bet on its opponent. For the same return whichever club wins, hedge stake = premiership return / opponent's price.
Example: Illustrative prices. You hold $10 on a club at $26.00 for the premiership, a face value of $260, and it makes the Grand Final. The head to head has your club at $2.40 and the opponent at $1.60, a book of 1 / 2.40 + 1 / 1.60 = 104.17%. Backing the opponent for $260 / 1.60 = $162.50 makes the return $260 whichever club wins. If both bets are accepted at those prices and settle on the same result, you finish $260 - ($10 + $162.50) = $87.50 ahead.
Extra time decides whether the two bets settle on the same result. A drawn Grand Final is played on in pairs of three-minute periods plus stoppages until one side is ahead at the end of a pair (Regulation 2.8). The premiership goes to that winner, while a head to head can be written to settle on normal time. Hedging futures bets works through the choices, AFL Grand Final betting covers how the day's markets settle, and the hedge calculator sizes the stake.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A hedge only fixes the result if both bets are accepted at the prices you used and settle the same way, and it gives up part of the bet's expected return. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Mistakes with AFL futures
| Mistake | What it costs |
|---|---|
| Reading the offered price as the chance | Club A at $5.00 implies 20%, but its fair chance in the example is 16.40% |
| Treating a top 8 bet as a finals bet | Ninth place loses it, although the club plays a Wildcard Final |
| Hedging with a market that settles differently | A drawn Grand Final can split the two bets' results |
| Counting finals goals in a Coleman bet | Only home-and-away goals count towards the medal |
| Forgetting all-in on a player future | No refund if he is injured or suspended: the bet stands and loses the whole stake unless he still wins |
Leave a futures market alone if you may need the stake back before it settles, or if your own estimate of a club's chance is no higher than its fair chance. A match bet ties up money for days, not months.
Where B337's Terminal fits
The hedge above runs through a Grand Final head to head, which is a match market. On B337's Terminal, prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports sit in their own columns, and AFL games show head to head, line and total markets, with player props where bookmakers offer them.
Between seasons there is little or nothing to compare. Prices are collected on a repeating cycle, so one on screen can lag the bookmaker's; confirm it in your account before you place a hedge. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A Grand Final price can move between your two bets, a futures bet ties up your stake for months, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.