To hedge a futures bet, you bet against your own selection once its price has shortened, sized so the result suits you whichever way the season ends. With several contenders left, one exchange lay covers them all: lay stake = potential return / (lay odds - commission rate), and it wins whichever other team takes the flag. With illustrative prices and an illustrative 6% commission, a $20 premiership bet at $15.00 laid at $2.56 locks in $92.80 whichever team wins, if the whole lay is matched before the game starts.
The hedge costs its commission or margin, and a futures hedge also ties up its liability or stakes until the season is decided. All the hedges below go on before the game starts: online bets on a sporting event have to be placed and accepted before it begins under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (ss 8A(3) and 10B). Hedging bets covers the method on any market.
How to hedge a futures bet: a $20 premiership ticket now at $2.50
Example: illustrative prices, not a real team, season or market. Before the season you backed Team A to win the premiership for $20 at $15.00 with Bookmaker A, a potential return of 20 x 15.00 = $300. Four teams are left. Bookmaker B now has Team A at $2.50, and the exchange's premiership market shows $2.54 to back and $2.56 to lay.
Unhedged, the ticket finishes +$280 if Team A wins the flag and -$20 if it does not. To make both results the same, lay Team A, here at an illustrative 6% commission:
lay stake = 300 / (2.56 - 0.06) = 300 / 2.50 = $120.00
liability = lay stake x (lay odds - 1) = $120 x (2.56 - 1) = $187.20
| Result | $20 at $15.00 | Lay $120 at $2.56 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team A wins the premiership | +$280.00 | -$187.20 | +$92.80 |
| Any other team wins | -$20.00 | 120 x 0.94 = +$112.80 | +$92.80 |
The exchange holds the $187.20 liability until the premiership is decided. Lay betting explained covers the lay itself, and futures betting explained how season-long markets are priced.
Laying all or part of the $120
Laying less than $120 keeps a Team A win as the bigger result. With the same illustrative prices:
| Lay of Team A at $2.56 | Liability | If Team A wins | If another team wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | $0 | +$280.00 | -$20.00 |
| $21.28, stake back | $33.20 | +$246.80 | $0.00 |
| $60, half | $93.60 | +$186.40 | +$36.40 |
| $120, full | $187.20 | +$92.80 | +$92.80 |
| $150, over-hedged | $234.00 | +$46.00 | +$121.00 |
The stake-back lay is 20 / (1 - 0.06) = $21.28, whose winnings after commission repay the $20. In every row, the Team A figure is 280 - liability and the other is -20 + lay stake x 0.94. A futures bet also suits a staged hedge: lay part now and more after the next round of finals. The hedge calculator sizes each part.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A lay locks in the result shown only if it is matched in full before the game starts, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Backing the other contenders vs one exchange lay
Without an exchange, the hedge is a bet on every other contender, each sized to return the same $300. With Bookmaker B's illustrative prices, that is 300 / 3.00 = $100 on Team B, 300 / 5.00 = $60 on Team C and 300 / 6.00 = $50 on Team D, $210 in all.
Whichever team wins, one ticket returns $300 against 20 + 210 = $230 staked, so the result is +$70.00 every way: $22.80 less than the exchange lay. The gap is the bookmaker's margin, paid three times, less the lay's commission and spread: priced against fair below, the three bets give up $27.65 and the lay $4.85, and 27.65 - 4.85 = $22.80. Bookmaker B's four prices add up to 1/2.50 + 1/3.00 + 1/5.00 + 1/6.00 = 110.0%, and each hedge bet carries its share of the extra 10%.
| Other contenders at a bookmaker | Lay on the exchange | |
|---|---|---|
| Cost | The margin in every price you take | Commission, plus the back-lay gap |
| Bets needed | One per other contender | One lay |
| Money tied up | The stakes, $210 | The liability, $187.20 |
The more contenders are left, the more margins the bookmaker route pays; the exchange costs more when its market is thin or its spread wide.
One opponent left: hedging in grand final week
In grand final week the bookmaker route needs one bet, on the opponent, so it pays one margin. Settlement is the catch. Under the NSW Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules, a result includes extra time for bets with NSW-authorised events bookmakers, unless the market offered a draw price (clause 5.1.2). Where it did, a draw at the end of normal time settles the market, and only the draw bets win (clause 5.1.7). So a three-way head to head bet on the opponent can lose on a normal-time draw while your premiership bet loses in extra time. Online bookmakers set their own rules; AFL draw rules and NRL Grand Final betting cover each code, and AFL premiership odds how that market is built.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A bookmaker can refuse or cut a hedge bet, a lay can sit partly unmatched, and two bets that settle a draw differently can both lose. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
All-in rules and what they do to a hedge
An all-in bet stands even if your selection never takes part. The same NSW rules make events bets all in unless agreed otherwise (clause 5.1.1). They define all in as bets that stand "regardless of whether or not a particular competitor or team or member of a team starts or completes" the event, with no refunds. Racing NSW's policy treats futures race betting with NSW bookmakers as all in between nominations closing and final acceptances, so a non-starter costs the whole stake. Each online bookmaker's futures terms say how it treats one.
A premiership club plays the season out, so the rule rarely bites there; on player awards and feature-race futures it does, so both halves of a hedge must treat a non-starter the same way.
Example: illustrative. Suppose the $20 at $15.00 were an all-in bet on a horse, hedged with the same $120 lay. If the horse is scratched and the exchange's rules void bets on a scratched runner, the lay is void and the futures bet still loses: -$20, not +$92.80. Bets on the other runners would hold, because one of them wins, though under Racing NSW's policy refunds and deductions may apply to bets struck after final acceptances.
Search both sides' terms for "all in" and "void" first; futures betting on horse racing covers the racing rules.
Deciding whether to hedge at all
At fair prices the ticket is worth its potential return times the team's chance, less the stake. Take the chance from the middle of the exchange's back and lay prices:
chance = (1 / 2.54 + 1 / 2.56) / 2 = (0.393701 + 0.390625) / 2 = 0.392163, a fair price of 1 / 0.392163 = $2.55
value of keeping the bet = 300 x 0.392163 - 20 = +$97.65 on average
| Choice | If Team A wins | If not | Worth at fair prices | Given up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keep the bet | +$280.00 | -$20.00 | +$97.65 | Nothing |
| Full lay on the exchange | +$92.80 | +$92.80 | +$92.80 | $4.85 |
| Back the other three at Bookmaker B | +$70.00 | +$70.00 | +$70.00 | $27.65 |
The full lay gives up $4.85, about 5% of the bet's value, to turn a 39.2% chance of +$280 and a 60.8% chance of -$20 into +$92.80 either way. A half hedge gives up half as much. Three tests decide it:
- Hedge when one result matters to you far more than the other, such as when $280 is a large share of your betting bank.
- Hold when you rate Team A's chance above the exchange's 39.2%: a full lay swaps a bet worth $97.65 at fair prices for a fixed $92.80.
- Skip the bookmaker route when a narrow exchange lay is on offer: here it gives up 27.65 / 4.85 = about 5.7 times as much.
Set any cash out offer against the $92.80 too; is cash out worth it shows how one is priced.
Risk: Betting involves risk. The 39.2% is the exchange's estimate, not the team's true chance, so a hedge can cost more or less than the table shows, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Mistakes that cost money on a futures hedge
| Mistake | What it does in the example | The fix |
|---|---|---|
| Hedging the grand final with a three-way head to head | A normal-time draw, then Team A losing in extra time, loses both bets | Hedge with a market that settles the way the premiership does |
| Hedging an all-in bet with a lay that is void for a scratched runner | A scratching leaves -$20 instead of +$92.80 | Match both bets' non-starter rules before you hedge |
| Hedging early into a wide, thin market | In March, at an illustrative $7.60 to back and $9.60 to lay, a full lay locks in about $9.55 on a bet worth $15.36 | Wait for money and a narrow spread, or hedge part |
The sizing errors in hedging bets, using the back price or leaving out commission, apply here too.
The March row: the midpoint chance is (1 / 7.60 + 1 / 9.60) / 2 = 0.117873, so the bet is worth 300 x 0.117873 - 20 = $15.36. The full lay of 300 / (9.60 - 0.06) = $31.45 carries 31.45 x 8.60 = $270.47 of liability, leaving +$9.53 if Team A wins and -20 + 31.45 x 0.94 = +$9.56 if not. It gives up about $5.80, close to 38% of the bet's value, against about 5% with four teams left.
Where B337 fits
The Terminal shows prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports beside Betfair back and lay. Its sports board includes head to head markets where bookmakers offer them, so once a futures bet comes down to one game, both sides of a hedge sit on one screen.
B337 places no back or lay bets on the exchange, so a lay hedge is yours to place in your own exchange account, and a bookmaker hedge is a bet you choose, in an account you hold. Prices are read on a repeating cycle, so confirm them before you bet. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds. Bookmaker names are trade marks of their owners. B337 is not affiliated with them.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A price on the Terminal can trail the bookmaker's or the exchange's own, a futures hedge ties up money for weeks, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.