An AFL same game multi (SGM) stacks two or more bets from one AFL match into a single ticket, and it pays only if every leg wins. AFL legs are closely linked: one side's big win tends to bring more goals for its forwards, more of the ball for its midfielders and a higher total. So the bookmaker sets a price for the whole ticket rather than multiplying the legs.
In the AFL's 2025 and 2026 home-and-away statistics, forwards averaging two or more goals a game kicked three or more in 57.6% of the games their team won by 20 points or more. In games their team lost by that much, the figure was 29.1%. A link only helps you if the price has not already allowed for it; the same markets priced singly are in AFL betting.
AFL legs that move together
A team that wins big has scored heavily, and its scorers and ball-winners have usually had plenty of the ball. The AFL's player statistics for the 2025 and 2026 home-and-away seasons show how strongly, by the team's result (draws left out):
| Team result | Key forward kicks 3+ goals | Midfielder gets 30+ disposals |
|---|---|---|
| Won by 20 or more | 57.6% | 46.6% |
| Won by 1 to 19 | 44.6% | 39.2% |
| Lost by 1 to 19 | 37.6% | 38.4% |
| Lost by 20 or more | 29.1% | 22.6% |
Key forwards here are players averaging two or more goals a game (668 games), and midfielders are players averaging 25 or more disposals (1,436 games), each over seasons of 15 or more games. In both columns the rate roughly doubles from a heavy loss to a big win: from 29.1% to 57.6% for the forwards, and from 22.6% to 46.6% for the midfielders.
Margins and totals move together as well. In the AFL's home-and-away results from 2022 to 2026 (1,026 games), a game decided by 40 points or more reached 170 total points 62.7% of the time. Margins of 20 to 39 got there 48.2% of the time, and margins of 1 to 19 did so in 42.9% of games. A side usually builds a big margin by scoring heavily, which lifts the total with it, and AFL total points betting looks at the scores behind that.
Two ball-winners on the same team are the exception: their disposal counts moved together only slightly in 2026, as AFL disposals betting measures, so a pair of midfielder legs gains little from the link.
AFL legs that pull against each other
Some pairs need opposite games, so they land together less often than their chances multiplied:
- A low total with a key forward's 3+ goals. Forwards averaging two or more goals kicked three or more in 31.9% of games that finished below that season's median total, against 53.3% of games at or above it (2025 and 2026, with medians of 168 points and 181 points).
- An underdog's win with a big winning margin. In the illustrative model below, about five in six underdog wins come by less than 40 points: (28.9% - 4.8%) / 28.9% = 0.83.
Example: An illustrative model, not a measured rate. The favourite is expected to win by 20 points, and results spread around that on a normal curve with a standard deviation of 36 points. The underdog wins when the margin falls below 0, a z-score of (0 - 20) / 36 = -0.556, which happens 28.9% of the time. A margin of 40 or more either way happens 33.7% of the time: 28.9% for the favourite (z = 0.556) plus 4.8% for the underdog (z = -1.667).
If those two legs were unrelated, they would land together 0.289 x 0.337 = 9.7% of the time. In this model they land together only when the underdog wins by 40 or more, which is 4.8%, about half as often. A pair that cannot both happen, such as one team to win and the other team's 40+ margin band, can never win at all.
Worked: a favourite's line and the total over as one SGM
Illustrative prices and chances, not a real game. Team A, the favourite, is -19.5 at $1.90, and over 169.5 total points is $1.90. Say each leg is a 50% chance, a fair price of $2.00. Say too that this game follows the league-wide pattern: from 2022 to 2026, games decided by 20 points or more reached 170 points 56.1% of the time, against 42.8% for games with a margin under 20 points, draws included.
If Team A covers -19.5, it has won by 20 or more, so the over becomes a 56.1% chance. Both legs then land 0.50 x 0.561 = 28.05% of the time, a fair price of 1 / 0.2805 = $3.57. Here is each way of pricing the pair, with the return per $1 at that 28.05% chance (chance x price):
| How the pair is priced | Price | Return per $1 |
|---|---|---|
| Fair, treating the legs as unrelated (0.50 x 0.50 = 25%) | $4.00 | 112.2c |
| Legs multiplied at the offered prices (1.90 x 1.90) | $3.61 | 101.3c |
| Fair, allowing for the link | $3.57 (1 / 0.2805 = 3.565) | 100.0c |
| Illustrative SGM price | $3.35 | 94.0c |
Multiplying the legs would put the pair above its fair price, which is why the bookmaker sets its own. The multi bet calculator gives the multiplied price for any set of legs, and the gap between that and the SGM price is the bookmaker's adjustment, which it does not itemise.
How the bookmaker builds an AFL SGM price
In outline, a bookmaker works in three steps:
- It estimates each leg's chance from its own single prices.
- It estimates how often the legs land together, given how they are linked.
- It adds its margin to that joint chance and offers the result.
Dividing the SGM price by the legs multiplied shows steps 2 and 3 together: 3.35 / 3.61 = 0.928. That one figure mixes the link and the margin, so you cannot split it without your own estimate of the chances. How SGM odds are calculated takes the method further.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A measurable link may already be in the SGM price, the estimate behind any fair price can be wrong, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Disposal and goal ladders as SGM legs
A ladder is one player's rungs on one statistic: 20+ and 25+ disposals, or 2+ and 3+ goals. Two rungs on one ladder are nested, the tightest link there is, because every three-goal game is also a two-goal game.
Forwards averaging two or more goals reached 2+ in 68.1% of their games and 3+ in 44.3% (2025 and 2026). Treated as unrelated, the pair would land 0.681 x 0.443 = 30.2% of the time, a fair price of 1 / 0.302 = $3.31.
It really lands whenever 3+ lands, 44.3% of the time, so its fair price is the 3+ price alone, 1 / 0.443 = $2.26. A builder may refuse the second rung or price the pair as the higher rung; either way, the lower rung adds nothing.
Higher rungs also lean harder on the team result. For the same forwards:
| Rung | In wins | In losses | Wins / losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ goals | 92.2% | 86.1% | 1.1 |
| 2+ goals | 75.7% | 58.7% | 1.3 |
| 3+ goals | 53.2% | 33.1% | 1.6 |
| 4+ goals | 30.2% | 11.0% | 2.7 |
Disposal ladders behave the same way. For midfielders averaging 25 or more, 30+ came up about twice as often in wins by 20 or more as in losses by 20 or more (46.6 / 22.6 = 2.1), while 25+ moved far less, 77.3% against 63.9%. A team leg therefore does more work beside a high rung than beside a low one.
Void legs: late outs, emergencies and players who never take the field
There has been no substitute in AFL men's matches since the start of 2026. A team sheet lists 23 players, five of them on the interchange bench, plus three emergencies, and is due 60 minutes before the start. After that, only a listed emergency can replace a player, and only before play starts (AFL Regulations 12.1 to 12.3, 11 February 2026 version). SGM terms written before 2026 can still mention a substitute.
When a player in your SGM does not take the field, your bookmaker's terms decide the ticket. The common rule types:
| Rule type | What happens to the ticket |
|---|---|
| Leg removed | His leg drops out and the other legs are re-priced as a smaller SGM |
| Ticket void | The whole SGM is refunded |
| All-in | His leg stands and loses, and the ticket loses with it |
For bookmakers authorised in NSW, the NSW Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules treat every bet as all-in by default, unless the bookmaker agrees or states otherwise (clause 5.1.1).
Example: Illustrative prices. A $20 three-leg SGM at $6.80 has Team A to win, Forward X to kick 2+ goals and Midfielder Y to get 25+ disposals. Forward X is withdrawn after the team sheet and an emergency comes in. If his leg is removed and the other two are re-priced at $2.30, the ticket returns $20 x 2.30 = $46 if both win; if the ticket is void, your $20 comes back; under an all-in rule, it loses.
A bench player who comes on, however late, has taken part, so under a takes-no-part test his leg settles on what he did. Same game multi rules works through re-pricing, and AFL team selections and betting covers when teams and late changes land.
Mistakes in AFL same game multis
| Mistake | What it costs |
|---|---|
| Judging an SGM by its legs multiplied | $20 at the $3.35 SGM returns $67.00 if it wins, not the $72.20 the multiplied $3.61 suggests |
| Adding a rung you already hold | A 2+ leg beside a 3+ leg for the same player wins only when the 3+ wins, so it adds nothing |
| Pairing legs that pull apart | In the model, the underdog's win with a 40-point margin landed 4.8% of the time, not 9.7% |
| Adding legs for a bigger price | Each leg brings margin: three legs from two-way markets at $1.90 a side (1 / 1.90 + 1 / 1.90 = 105.26%) compound to 1.0526 x 1.0526 x 1.0526 = 116.6% in a standard multi |
| Building before teams are final | An all-in leg on a player who is left out loses the whole ticket |
Skip the SGM when only one leg is your view: bet that leg as a single, because every leg you add brings its own margin, and a link the bookmaker has already priced gives nothing back.
SGM Saver on AFL games
B337's SGM Saver builds and places same game multis for the saver or stake-back offers already on your own bookmaker accounts, on the games you pick, at seven bookmakers and on AFL, NRL, NBA and soccer. A multi goes on only after the bookmaker confirms the offer applies to it; otherwise that game is skipped.
Its limits are yours to set: which games, the lowest and highest combined odds, the most legs on one ticket and which player markets it may use. You can also edit the legs yourself, and hand-picked legs are re-priced when the bet goes on.
SGM Saver needs Full Automation, which is set up with the team, with the price, including any charges on top of the plan price, confirmed before you pay. The multis it places through B337 use credits, a per-bet usage charge. The bot runs on your own computer, which has to be on, awake, online and running B337, and bets go on before the game starts.
Many bookmakers restrict or prohibit automated betting, third-party access and multiple accounts in their terms, and a bookmaker can limit stakes, void bets or close an account; that risk is yours.
For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A saver offer does not stop a same game multi from losing, and automation can bet far more, far faster, than by hand, so set deposit limits with your bookmakers. See responsible gambling for limits and support.