AFL Grand Final betting offers the same match markets as any AFL game, plus the Norm Smith Medal for the best player on the ground and a premiership market that this one game settles. Under Regulation 2.8 of the AFL Regulations (11 February 2026 version), a Grand Final level at the final siren goes to extra time in pairs of three-minute periods, so check whether each bet's terms count it.
Online betting on the match closes when it starts (Interactive Gambling Act 2001, s 8A(3) and s 10B). AFL betting covers the markets; on Grand Final day the differences are extra time, one medal, one venue and one week of team news.
AFL Grand Final markets and how each one settles
| Market | What changes in a Grand Final |
|---|---|
| Head to head | The official result always has a winner; under the NSW rule book, a market that prices the draw uses the score at the siren |
| Line | The terms say whether extra time counts |
| Total points | Extra time can only add points |
| Margin bands, such as 1 to 39 and 40 or more | A level score at the siren fits no team's band unless extra time counts |
| First goal, goal kickers, most disposals | A late out follows the rule for a player who never takes the field; a tie follows your terms' dead heat rule |
| Norm Smith Medal | Best on ground, on the judges' votes after the final siren |
| Premiership | The club that wins the flag, decided by this game, extra time included |
Once the two Grand Finalists are known, the premiership market and the head to head ask the same question.
Example: Illustrative prices, not a real game or a current market. Team A is $1.68 to win the premiership at Bookmaker A and $1.62 in the Grand Final head to head at Bookmaker B. On $50 the premiership bet returns $50 x 1.68 = $84.00 and the head to head $50 x 1.62 = $81.00: $3 more for the same team winning the flag.
Check that the two settle the same way; AFL premiership betting prices the flag across the whole season.
Risk: Betting involves risk. The two prices settle under two sets of terms, and a bet at the longer price still loses if the team does. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
A drawn Grand Final: extra time and your bets
Regulation 2.8 covers every final. After a rest of 6 minutes 30 seconds, the teams play two periods of three minutes plus stoppages, changing ends before each, and more pairs are played until a pair ends with one side in front.
The AFL counts three drawn Grand Finals, in 1948, 1977 and 2010, each replayed the following week. Extra time has since replaced replays, and in December 2019 repeated three-minute periods took over from its "golden score" rule.
Your bet may not use the official result. The rule types:
- Extra time counts. Unless agreed otherwise, the NSW Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules settle on the result after extra time, line bets included (clauses 5.1.2 and 5.1.3).
- The draw was priced. Where a draw price was on offer, the NSW rule book settles on the normal-time score, so only the draw can win (clause 5.1.7).
- The bookmaker's own terms. These can settle a two-way market on the normal-time score, with a dead heat or a void.
Example: Illustrative scores and prices. The Grand Final is 11.13 (79) each at the siren. In extra time Team A kicks 2.0 (12) and Team B 0.3 (3), so Team A wins 13.13 (91) to 11.16 (82): a 9-point margin and 173 points, against 0 and 158 at the siren.
| $20 bet | Settled after extra time | Settled at the end of normal time |
|---|---|---|
| Team A head to head at $1.62 | Wins, returns $32.40 | Level: $16.20 under a dead heat rule, $20 back under a void |
| Team A -7.5 at $1.90 | Wins, returns $38 | Loses: the margin is 0 |
| Over 168.5 at $1.90 | Wins: 173 points | Loses: 158 points |
| Team A by 1 to 39 at $2.25 | Wins, returns $45 | No team won, so the terms decide: a loss or a refund |
| The draw at $41, in a market that priced it | Not applicable | Wins, returns $820 |
A Grand Final that cannot be finished is not declared a draw: Regulation 33.3 has it resume from where it stopped, unless the AFL enforces the score at the interruption because playing on would not change the result. Under the NSW rule book, an event not scheduled to finish within three calendar days of its original date counts as abandoned and bets are refunded (clause 5.1.6). AFL draw rules covers these rule types for drawn home-and-away games.
Norm Smith Medal betting: the votes and how to price them
Under Regulation 24, a panel appointed by the AFL gives 3, 2 and 1 votes to the three best players straight after the Grand Final. The AFL's 2026 report lists five judges, so 15 votes is the most a player can get. A tie goes to the player with more 3-vote rankings, then more 2-vote rankings, then more votes from the chair, then from the deputy chair, which makes a joint medal, and so a dead heat, very unlikely.
Winners from the losing team are rare: the AFL reported that the 2026 medallist was only the fifth in the medal's history, and the first in 21 years, to win it in a losing team. So a player's chance rests mostly on his team winning:
chance = team's win chance x his chance of being best on ground if it wins + team's loss chance x his chance if it loses
Example: Illustrative numbers, not a real player or a current market. Team A is a 58% chance, and its midfielder is best on ground in 20% of the games Team A wins and 4% of those it loses. His chance is 0.58 x 0.20 + 0.42 x 0.04 = 13.28%, a fair price of 1 / 0.1328 = $7.53, so an illustrative $6.50 returns 0.1328 x 6.50 = 86c per $1 on average.
Read the market's rule for a named player who does not take the field, void or all-in, before you bet early in Grand Final week.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A medal vote is a panel's opinion of one game, and a medal bet priced above your own estimate still loses most of the time. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Venue, start time and weather
Regulation 2.7(g) puts the Grand Final at the MCG unless the AFL Commission determines otherwise, and 13 of the last 15 were there, the exceptions being 2020 at the Gabba and 2021 at Perth Stadium. The AFL's results:
| Year | Winning margin | Total points | Weather in the AFL's match record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 10 | 172 | Rain |
| 2013 | 15 | 139 | Windy |
| 2014 | 63 | 211 | Mostly sunny |
| 2015 | 46 | 168 | Mostly sunny |
| 2016 | 22 | 156 | Mostly sunny |
| 2017 | 48 | 168 | Mostly sunny |
| 2018 | 5 | 153 | Mostly sunny |
| 2019 | 89 | 139 | Mostly sunny |
| 2020 | 31 | 131 | Mostly sunny |
| 2021 | 74 | 206 | Mostly sunny |
| 2022 | 81 | 185 | Rain |
| 2023 | 4 | 176 | Sunny |
| 2024 | 60 | 180 | Sunny |
| 2025 | 47 | 197 | Mostly sunny |
| 2026 | 7 | 185 | Rain |
All 15 were Saturday games, the 13 at the MCG starting at 2:30 pm Melbourne time, and 2020's quarters were cut from 20 to 16 minutes. Eight were won by 40 points or more, against 34.4% of home-and-away games from 2012 to 2026 (965 of 2,807, 2020 left out). But 15 games are too few to call Grand Finals lopsided: the line on the day is the better guide.
The weather notes read like a forecast ("Morning shower or two" in 2022), and the three games marked Rain, at 172, 185 and 185 points, are far too few to show a rain effect. The MCG has no roof, and AFL total points betting found open-air games marked rain averaged 165.7 points against 171.0 for other open-air games, 2022 to 2026.
If a match moves ground after you bet, the NSW rule book voids the bet unless agreed otherwise (clause 5.1.14).
Grand Final same game multis
A same game multi (SGM) settles leg by leg, so the extra-time question applies to each leg: a total leg can follow one score while the head to head follows another. Player legs hang on the Thursday team lists and the team sheet an hour before the start.
Legs about one team also move together. Where a bookmaker lets you combine a medal leg with the result, Team A to win and its midfielder to win the medal land together 0.58 x 0.20 = 11.6% of the time in the Norm Smith example. That is a fair price of 1 / 0.116 = $8.62.
Multiplying the two fair prices gives (1 / 0.58) x (1 / 0.1328) = $12.98, about half as much again, because 87% of his medals come in Team A wins (0.116 / 0.1328). AFL same game multis covers how linked legs are priced.
How to bet on the AFL Grand Final
- Bet only with a provider licensed in Australia: ACMA's register lists their trading names.
- Leave player bets until the Thursday teams, and recheck the team sheet an hour before the start.
- Read the extra-time clause, and whether the draw is priced, for every market you use.
- Compare the premiership price with the head to head for the same team.
- Check the bet slip, then place every bet before the game starts.
Mistakes that cost money on Grand Final day
| Mistake | What it costs, on the examples above |
|---|---|
| Expecting extra time to count when the terms use normal time | $20 on Team A at $1.62 returns $16.20 under a dead heat rule, not $32.40 |
| Taking the head to head when the premiership market pays more and settles the same way | $81.00 instead of $84.00 on $50 when Team A wins |
| Multiplying a medal leg by the team's price | $12.98 for a pair worth a fair $8.62 |
Risk: Betting involves risk. Avoiding these mistakes adds value on average; each bet can still lose. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Where B337 fits on Grand Final day
On B337's Terminal, which compares prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports, the sports board sets out each bookmaker's head to head, line and total in its own column, plus player props where bookmakers offer them. The board reads prices on a repeating cycle, so check the price in your own account before you bet, and expect some bookmakers not to price some games. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A Grand Final is one game, every market on it can turn on a single kick, and a well-priced bet still loses when the result goes the other way. See responsible gambling for limits and support.