Futures betting is betting now on a result decided at the end of a season or tournament, such as the premiership, a medal or a top 8 finish, at a price fixed when your bet is accepted. The whole market usually carries more margin than a single game: the illustrative 10-team premiership market below adds up to 121.68%, against 105.34% for a head to head at $1.85 and $1.95.
Futures, also called outrights, sit beside match markets such as head to head and line in sports betting. Whether an early price is worth taking turns on that margin, and on what happens if your selection never takes part.
Futures markets: premiership, awards and ladder finishes
A futures market prices the contenders for one result and settles once, when that result is official:
| Market | Your selection wins if it | When it settles |
|---|---|---|
| Premiership | Wins the grand final | After the grand final |
| Minor premiership | Tops the ladder after the regular rounds | After the last regular round |
| Top 4 or top 8 | Finishes inside that band on the ladder | After the last regular round |
| Wooden spoon | Finishes last | After the last regular round |
| Award, such as the Brownlow Medal or the Dally M Medal | Wins the award as the governing body declares it | When the award is announced |
In a one-winner market the fair chances add up to 100%. A top 4 market has four winners and a top 8 market eight, so their fair chances add up to 400% and 800%. A top 4 market whose prices add up to 460% is a book of 460 / 400 = 115%.
Read the wording on any ladder bet. From 2026 the AFL sends its top six straight into the final eight, while seventh to tenth play a Wildcard Round for its last two places, according to the AFL's announcement of the Wildcard Round (checked October 2026). The AFL counts those games as finals, so ninth and tenth play finals without making the top 8, and seventh can be out after one game. A top 8 ladder market and a market on making the finals can therefore settle differently: check how your bookmaker defines the finals.
AFL premiership betting and NRL premiership betting cover each league's format, and election markets are futures too, as political betting in Australia explains.
Why futures margins are higher
Two features of a futures market leave a bookmaker more room than a single game does:
- Time. Every bet struck keeps its price for months while injuries, suspensions and form play out.
- Many long prices. Every selection carries part of the margin, and most futures selections are long shots, where a small cut is easy to miss. Shortening one from $41.00 to $34.00, for example, lifts its implied chance from 2.44% to 2.94%, adding half a percentage point to the market.
They push margins up as a tendency, not a rule, so measure the market you bet.
How to measure the margin on a whole futures market
- Turn every price into an implied chance: implied chance = 1 / price.
- Add them up for the whole market. The total is the book, and anything over 100% is the overround.
- Divide each implied chance by the book for its fair chance, spreading the margin in proportion. Fair price = 1 / fair chance.
With illustrative March prices for a 10-team competition:
| Team | Price | Implied chance | Fair chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team 1 | $3.50 | 28.57% | 23.48% | $4.26 |
| Team 2 | $4.50 | 22.22% | 18.26% | $5.48 |
| Team 3 | $5.50 | 18.18% | 14.94% | $6.69 |
| Team 4 | $7.00 | 14.29% | 11.74% | $8.52 |
| Team 5 | $9.00 | 11.11% | 9.13% | $10.95 |
| Team 6 | $11.00 | 9.09% | 7.47% | $13.38 |
| Team 7 | $15.00 | 6.67% | 5.48% | $18.25 |
| Team 8 | $19.00 | 5.26% | 4.33% | $23.12 |
| Team 9 | $26.00 | 3.85% | 3.16% | $31.64 |
| Team 10 | $41.00 | 2.44% | 2.00% | $49.89 |
| Total | 121.68% | 100.00% |
Each fair price is the price x 1.21678. With the margin spread in proportion, every $1 bet on this market returns 1 / 1.21678 = 82.2 cents on average. On an illustrative head to head at $1.85 and $1.95 (1 / 1.85 + 1 / 1.95 = 105.34%), $1 returns 1 / 1.05336 = 94.9 cents. Other ways of removing the margin load more of it onto the long prices, so treat Team 10's fair price as rough. The fair odds calculator runs these sums on a whole market.
Worked: $10 at $15.00 in March against a shorter price in August
Back Team 7 at $15.00 in March, before the first round: if it wins the premiership, $10 returns $10 x 15.00 = $150, a $140 profit. Say that by August, with three rounds left, Team 7 is second and $5.00 in a market adding up to 110.00% (illustrative).
| March | August | |
|---|---|---|
| Team 7's price | $15.00 | $5.00 |
| The whole market adds up to | 121.68% | 110.00% |
| Implied chance | 6.67% | 20.00% |
| Fair chance, margin taken out in proportion | 5.48% | 18.18% |
| Fair price | $18.25 | $5.50 |
| $10 returns if Team 7 wins | $150 | $50 |
| Average return per $1 at the fair chance | 82.2 cents | 90.9 cents |
The March ticket pays three times as much because it also carried the months in which Team 7 could have fallen away:
| By August, Team 7 is | Its price then | Your March $10 at $15.00 | $10 placed in August instead |
|---|---|---|---|
| A contender | $5.00 | $150 if it wins | $50 if it wins |
| Fading | $41.00 | $150 if it wins | $410 if it wins, or you keep your $10 |
Break-even at $15.00 is 1 / 15.00 = 6.67%. On the market's fair 5.48%, the March bet returns 0.05479 x 15.00 = 82.2 cents per $1 on average. If you rate Team 7 at 7%, it averages 0.07 x 15.00 = $1.05 per $1, but each ticket still pays $15.00 per $1 or nothing.
The August price costs less per dollar here, 90.9 cents back, because that market carries less margin. So the March price is worth it only if your estimate clears its 6.67% break-even, which is the market's fair 5.48% with the whole 21.68% margin added back (5.48% x 1.21678 = 6.67%). If the price shortens, a second bet can lock in part of the gain, which hedging a futures bet works through.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A futures bet ties your money up for months, most selections in any futures market lose, and a price above your own estimate can still lose. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
All-in rules when a team or player does not take part
Many futures bets are all in: the bet stands whether or not your selection takes part. NSW's Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules (checked October 2026) apply to bookmakers licensed in NSW and authorised to take bets on sport. Under clause 5.1.1, every bet is all in unless another basis is agreed when it is made or the bookmaker's own terms say otherwise.
Bets on an event postponed beyond three calendar days are refunded (5.1.6), except a bet on a selection that was scratched, withdrawn or disqualified: that one stands with no refund (5.1.12).
Example: Illustrative price. $10 on Player Y at $11.00 for a season award. He is injured before round 1 and misses the year: under an all-in rule you lose the $10, while a rule that refunds a selection that takes no part gives it back.
The same rule book refunds bets on an event cancelled before it starts, or abandoned (5.1.10). It settles on the governing body's official result and ignores later changes such as a disqualification (5.1.11), and it bars bets on an event scheduled to be decided more than four years ahead (3.1.4). A tie for an award with no tie price is a dead heat: face value divided by the number tied, times the places they fill (5.1.8). So $10 at $9.00 on one of two joint winners returns $90 / 2 = $45 (illustrative).
Bookmakers licensed elsewhere set their own futures rules, and racing futures run on rules of their own, as futures betting on horse racing explains.
When locking in a futures price makes sense
Take an early price when all of these hold:
- Your estimate of the chance clears the break-even, 1 / price, with room left for the months your money is locked away.
- Your selection is near certain to take part, or the market refunds one that does not.
- You have checked other bookmakers: each sets its own prices at its own discretion (NSW rule book, clause 3.1.7), so one can sit well above another.
- You have added up the market and know its margin.
Wait when team lists or a key player's fitness are unknown, or when you may need the money before the season ends. A fair price already allows for the news still to come, so an early bet has an edge only when you know something the price does not.
Risk: Betting involves risk. An early price that looks generous can drift, a selection can miss the season, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Three futures mistakes and their cost
| Mistake | What it costs, on this page's numbers | The fix |
|---|---|---|
| Reading the price as the chance | Team 7's $15.00 implies 6.67%, but its fair share of the 121.68% market is 5.48%, about 82 cents back per $1 | Add up the market first |
| Backing several teams to cover the top of the market | $10 each on Teams 1 to 3 costs $30 and loses it all when none wins, 100% - (23.48% + 18.26% + 14.94%) = 43.3% of the time on the fair chances; on average $30 / 1.21678 = $24.66 comes back | Back only a selection you rate above its price |
| Forgetting the all-in rule | A pre-season injury loses the whole stake, with no refund | Find the non-starter rule first |
Risk: Betting involves risk. Avoiding these mistakes lowers a futures bet's average cost, not the chance that it loses. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Following a futures bet with weekly match prices
A futures price moves with each round's results and team news. B337's Terminal sets out each game's head to head, line and total prices, and player props where bookmakers offer them, one bookmaker per column, so you can see how the market rates your team round by round. It shows prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports, and out of season there is little or nothing to compare.
The Terminal reads prices on a repeating cycle and shows them as at the time displayed, so confirm any price in your bookmaker account before you bet. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Match prices show how a team is rated, not how its season will end, and a futures bet can be lost to one injury or one finals loss. See responsible gambling for limits and support.