How money back racing promotions work
A money back offer refunds your stake, typically as a bonus bet, when your runner finishes in a placing it names, most often 2nd or 3rd. Here is how these offers work, what a refund is really worth, and how to value one from Betfair prices.
By the B337 team. Last updated .
The short answer
- A money back racing promotion refunds your stake if your runner finishes in a placing the offer names, most often 2nd or 3rd.
- The refund is typically a bonus bet, not cash, and has a maximum. A bonus bet is worth less than its face value.
- Its value is the chance of that placing, from the Betfair place and win markets, times what the refund is worth to you.
- A refund does not fix a poor price, and a bet with one can still lose outright.
What is a money back racing promotion?
It is a bookmaker offer that refunds your stake when your runner finishes in a placing the offer names, instead of the bet simply losing. It goes by money back, bonus back or refund offer; in B337 it is a money-back saver. The refund is typically a bonus bet rather than cash, up to a maximum. The common shapes:
- The stake back if the runner finishes 2nd; or 2nd or 3rd; or 2nd, 3rd or 4th.
- Part of the stake back, such as half, sometimes in cash.
- Paid as a winner if the runner finishes 2nd.
- The stake back if the runner does not win at all.
Each is valued the same way: the chance the offer pays, times what it pays, set against the price. This guide covers how the offers work in general. It does not list current offers or recommend a bookmaker.
How the refund works
The details differ between bookmakers and offers, but the sequence is the same.
The offer is on your account
Bookmakers choose which accounts get an offer, on which races, and set its terms. Some need you to opt in first, and a bookmaker can stop offering them to an account.
You place a qualifying bet
Usually a fixed-odds win bet on an eligible race, up to the maximum refund. A bet outside the terms gets no refund.
The race is run
A winner is paid as normal, with no refund. A runner in a placing the offer names still loses, but the stake comes back as the offer says. Anywhere else, the bet simply loses.
The refund is credited
Typically as a bonus bet once the race settles, with its own terms and expiry.
What to check in the terms
- The maximum refund. Any stake above it is an ordinary bet.
- Which bets qualify, often only fixed-odds win bets on named races, and whether you must opt in.
- Whether the refund is a bonus bet or cash, and when it expires.
- Whether a winning bonus bet returns its stake. Usually it does not.
- Any minimum price or minimum number of starters.
- How dead heats, protests and late scratchings are treated.
Promotions carry bookmaker terms, and the terms decide what pays. Where a term and this guide differ, the term applies.
How to value a money back offer
Any money back strategy comes down to three numbers: the chance the refund pays, what the refund is worth to you, and the price you are getting.
The chance the refund pays
This guide uses Betfair exchange prices as the fair reference, as B337's racing strategy does: they have no bookmaker margin built in. A price becomes a chance when you divide 1 by it, so $5.00 is 20.0%.
For a refund on 2nd or 3rd, take the place market that pays three places. Its price gives the chance of finishing in the first three, and subtracting the win chance leaves the chance of a 2nd or 3rd. For 2nd alone, use the 2-place market. Use the midpoint of back and lay, close to the jump.
What the refund is worth: a bonus bet is not cash
A winning bonus bet usually pays the winnings only, so a $50.00 bonus bet is worth less than $50.00 in cash, and less again at short prices. Bonus bet automation shows the share kept at different prices, and the bonus bet converter works it out for one bonus bet. The examples here assume a bonus bet is worth 75% of its face value to you: an assumption for the arithmetic, not a figure to count on.
The price you are getting
An offer does not change the bookmaker's price. If that price is well below Betfair's, the gap eats into what the refund is worth, so compare the two win prices first. Together, the three numbers give the expected value:
The sum, per $1 staked
Expected value = win chance × bookmaker price + refund chance × refund value − 1
- Win chance
- 1 ÷ the Betfair win price
- Refund chance
- 1 ÷ the Betfair place price, minus the win chance
- Refund value
- What you can turn the refund into, per $1 staked
Above zero, the offer more than covers the bookmaker's margin at that price. Below zero, it does not.
Why price and field size matter
| Runner | Betfair win | Betfair 3-place | Chance of 2nd or 3rd | Refund adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short-priced | $3.00 | $1.50 | 33.3% | $12.50 |
| Mid-priced (the example) | $5.00 | $2.00 | 30.0% | $11.25 |
| Long shot | $20.00 | $5.00 | 15.0% | $5.63 |
The refund adds the most on runners that often finish 2nd or 3rd without winning, and little on long shots. That is not a reason to back the short-priced runner: what the refund adds still has to be set against its price.
Field size works the same way. With fewer rivals for the placings, a runner at a given win price is more likely to finish 2nd or 3rd in a small field. The place market prices that in, which is why the refund chance should come from it rather than from the win price alone.
A worked example
Hypothetical prices, chosen to show the arithmetic. Not a real race, a current offer or a forecast.
- A $50.00 fixed-odds win bet at a bookmaker price of $4.20.
- An offer that refunds the stake as a bonus bet if the runner finishes 2nd or 3rd.
- Betfair midpoints of $5.00 to win and $2.00 in the 3-place market.
- A bonus bet worth 75% of face value to you, so the $50.00 refund is worth $37.50.
Step 1: the chances
$5.00 to win is a 20.0% chance, and $2.00 to finish in the first three is 50.0%. That leaves 30.0% for a 2nd or 3rd, the refund chance, and 50.0% for everything else.
Step 2: what each outcome pays
| Outcome | Chance | Net result |
|---|---|---|
| The runner wins | 20.0% | +$160.00 |
| It runs 2nd or 3rd | 30.0% | -$12.50 |
| It runs worse | 50.0% | -$50.00 |
| Expected value | 6.5% of stake | +$3.25 |
Step 3: the expected value
Weighted by their chances, the outcomes average +$3.25 a bet, or 6.5% of the stake. The refund adds $11.25: a 30.0% chance of $37.50. Without it the bet is worth -$8.00, because $4.20 is well short of Betfair's $5.00. The refund covers that gap with $3.25 to spare.
In breakeven terms: with the refund, the bet breaks even at a bookmaker price of about $3.88; without it, at $5.00, Betfair's own price.
What changes the answer
| What changes | Expected value |
|---|---|
| The example: the refund is a bonus bet worth 75% to you | +$3.25 |
| The refund is paid in cash | +$7.00 |
| The bonus bet is worth only 50% to you | -$0.50 |
| The bookmaker's price is $3.80, not $4.20 | -$0.75 |
| No refund offer at all | -$8.00 |
Value the bonus bet at 50%, or take $3.80 instead of $4.20, and the same bet is worth less than nothing. Even at +$3.25, it loses the whole stake 50.0% of the time. Expected value is an average over many bets: one race, or a week of them, can land a long way either side.
Betting involves risk. Bookmakers can restrict or close accounts and void bets, automation can fail, prices move, and a positive expected value (+EV) bet can still lose. Promotions carry each bookmaker's own terms. There is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
To run your own numbers, the free racing promo calculator takes the offer, your stake, the bookmaker price and the Betfair win and place prices, and returns the expected value and breakeven price. No account needed.
Mistakes that cost value
Most of the value in a refund offer is lost in the same few ways.
Counting the refund as cash
A $50.00 bonus bet refund is not $50.00. Value it at what you expect to turn it into.
Ignoring the price
The offer does not change the bookmaker's price. In the worked example, $3.80 instead of $4.20 turns the bet negative even with the refund.
Reading the wrong place market
A refund on 2nd or 3rd needs the market that pays three places. The 2-place market answers a different question.
Staking above the maximum refund
Any stake above the cap is an ordinary bet with no refund behind it, at the bookmaker's full margin.
Letting the refund expire
A bonus bet refund is only worth something if it is used before it expires.
Judging an offer on one result
A bet with positive expected value can lose several times in a row, and a poor bet can win.
Where B337 fits
B337 is software you run on your own computer, not a bookmaker: it does not take bets or hold betting funds, and your money stays in your own accounts. Its racing strategy, Classic Racing, can use the promotions already on your bookmaker accounts, money-back savers and bonus bets included, within each bookmaker's rules. It never creates, unlocks or claims an offer: with no offer on the account, no promo bet is placed.
Close to the jump, a session compares each bookmaker's win price with the Betfair price, counts an offer the account holds towards the value, and bets only where the edge you set is met, across thoroughbred, harness and greyhound racing. Your computer has to stay on, with the bot running. The horse racing betting bot page covers the strategy and its controls, and bonus bet automation covers how sessions use bonus bets.
Use your refund offers in a racing session
Racing sessions are part of B337's paid plans. A free account shows a limited view of the Terminal.
- Only offers already on your own accounts, within each bookmaker's rules
- Auto Scan Promos reads the offers on your accounts during the day
- Edge and bonus-conversion thresholds, promo and bonus max stakes and a custom promo list
- Several run windows a day, and optional profit and loss stops
- Every bet recorded, and settled from official racing results
Betting involves risk. Bookmakers can restrict or close accounts and void bets, automation can fail, prices move, and a positive expected value (+EV) bet can still lose. Promotions carry each bookmaker's own terms. There is no guarantee of profit. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Common questions
Are money back racing promotions worth it?
They can be, when the bookmaker's price is close enough to Betfair's and you value the refund as the bonus bet it is. In the worked example the refund is worth $11.25 on a $50.00 bet, and the price takes most of it back.
Why is the refund usually a bonus bet?
The bookmaker's terms decide, and bonus bets are the typical choice. It matters because a winning bonus bet usually pays the winnings only, not the stake, so a $50.00 bonus bet is worth less than $50.00 in cash.
Do each-way, multi or tote bets qualify?
Only if the terms say so. Many refund offers apply to fixed-odds win bets alone, and a bet placed with a bonus bet may not qualify either.
What about dead heats, protests and scratchings?
The terms cover them, and they can change what a bet pays or whether a refund applies. A late scratching also changes the field, so check the Betfair prices again close to the jump.
Does B337 give me refund offers?
No. Bookmakers issue promotions under their own terms. A B337 racing session only uses offers already on your own account, and with no offer there, no promo bet is placed.
Keep reading
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