1X2 betting is a bet on the result of a soccer match with three outcomes to choose from: 1 is a home win, X is a draw and 2 is an away win. The bet settles on the score when normal time ends, so a match that is level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time is an X, even if a cup tie then goes to extra time.
Because the draw is a result you can back, all three prices share the bookmaker's margin. With illustrative prices of $1.62 for the home side, $4.00 for the draw and $5.50 for the away side, 1 / price across the three adds up to 104.9%. The 4.9% above 100% is the margin built into the market.
What 1, X and 2 mean
| Label | You are backing | Wins when, after normal time | Example scores |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The home side, named first | The home side has scored more | 1-0, 3-2 |
| X | The draw | The scores are level | 0-0, 2-2 |
| 2 | The away side, named second | The away side has scored more | 0-2, 1-3 |
The same market can appear as head to head, match result or win-draw-win. Calling it three way betting sets it apart from a two-way head to head, such as an AFL market with only two team prices. There, a draw is settled by the bookmaker's rule rather than backed at a price, and head to head betting compares how each sport handles a level score.
The 1 is the team named first, which is normally the home side. At a neutral ground, such as a final played at a venue that belongs to neither club, read the 1 as the first-named team and do not assume it has home advantage.
Each outcome pays the stake times its price. With the illustrative prices and $50 on each:
| Outcome | Price | $50 returns | Profit if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (home) | $1.62 | $50 x 1.62 = $81.00 | $31.00 |
| X (draw) | $4.00 | $50 x 4.00 = $200.00 | $150.00 |
| 2 (away) | $5.50 | $50 x 5.50 = $275.00 | $225.00 |
Implied chances and the margin across three outcomes
Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds. Work it out for all three prices and add them up: the sum is the market percentage, and the part over 100% is the overround. To estimate fair chances, divide each implied chance by the sum, which takes the margin out in proportion.
| Outcome | Price | Implied chance | Fair chance (implied / 1.0491) | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1.62 | 1 / 1.62 = 61.73% | 58.84% | 1 / 0.5884 = $1.70 |
| X | $4.00 | 1 / 4.00 = 25.00% | 23.83% | 1 / 0.2383 = $4.20 |
| 2 | $5.50 | 1 / 5.50 = 18.18% | 17.33% | 1 / 0.1733 = $5.77 |
| Total | 104.91% | 100.00% |
If those fair chances are right, every $1 staked returns 1 / 1.0491 = 95.3 cents on average, whichever outcome you back. So a 104.9% book is a 4.9% overround but an average cost of about 4.7 cents in the dollar: one margin, measured against different bases.
Proportional removal is the simplest method, not the only one. Methods that assume more of the margin sits on the longer prices give the draw and the away side slightly longer fair prices, and the favourite a slightly shorter one. Bookmaker margin sets out the methods, and the fair odds calculator lets you switch between four of them on your own three prices.
Why the draw is often the hardest price to judge
Most views about a match are about which team is better. The draw barely depends on that. It depends on how many goals the match is expected to produce and how evenly they are likely to be shared.
A simple goals model shows the effect. Treat each side's goals as independent Poisson counts with the illustrative expected goals below. The chance of a side scoring k goals is e^-xG x xG^k / k!, where xG is its expected goals and e is the constant 2.718. A draw adds up both sides scoring the same number: for 1.0 v 1.0 that is 0.13534 + 0.13534 + 0.03383 + 0.00376 + 0.00023 + 0.00001 = 0.30851, or 30.9%, and each side wins (1 - 0.30851) / 2 = 34.6%. Chances are rounded to one decimal place, so a row can add to 100.1%:
| Expected goals, home v away | Expected total | Home win | Draw | Away win | Fair draw price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 v 1.0 | 2.0 | 34.6% | 30.9% | 34.6% | 1 / 0.309 = $3.24 |
| 1.3 v 1.3 | 2.6 | 36.8% | 26.4% | 36.8% | 1 / 0.264 = $3.79 |
| 1.6 v 1.6 | 3.2 | 38.3% | 23.4% | 38.3% | 1 / 0.234 = $4.27 |
| 1.6 v 1.0 | 2.6 | 51.3% | 25.0% | 23.7% | 1 / 0.250 = $4.00 |
Two evenly matched sides can justify a draw anywhere from about $3.24 to $4.27, depending only on the goals you expect. The last row has the same 2.6-goal total as the second but a clear favourite, and the draw falls from 26.4% to 25.0%. Poisson distribution betting builds the model and explains where real matches depart from it.
Two more things make the draw hard to price:
- It soaks up your errors. Rate the home side at 50% and the away side at 25%, and the draw is the 25% left over, a fair $4.00. Overrate both sides by two points each and the draw falls to 21%, a fair 1 / 0.21 = $4.76, without any view on the draw itself.
- One goal ends it. A draw needs the scores to match at the final whistle, so a single goal in stoppage time turns a winning X into a losing one.
The working rule: judge a draw price against the goals markets before the teams. If the over/under goals market prices a low-scoring match, a long draw price deserves a second look; if it prices a high-scoring one, a short draw price does.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A goals model is an estimate, real matches depart from it, and a draw that looks long against the goals market can still lose. There is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
How a 1X2 bet settles: 90 minutes, not extra time
Bookmakers authorised in NSW work to the Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules. These fix a soccer result at the end of normal time, "in most circumstances, ninety minutes plus injury time", unless agreed otherwise (clause 5.2.7.3). Normal time counts the minutes added for stoppages and none of the time played to break a tie. Clause 5.1.7 adds that when the draw has its own price, extra time is ignored and a draw beats every other selection.
Law 10 of the Laws of the Game (2026/27) treats a match as drawn when the goals are equal, and a shootout is taken after the match has ended. So:
| What happens | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home side wins 2-1 with a goal in stoppage time | Wins | Loses | Loses |
| 1-1 after 90 minutes, home side wins in extra time | Loses | Wins | Loses |
| 0-0 after extra time, away side wins the shootout | Loses | Wins | Loses |
Three edge cases sit outside that table, all from the same rule book:
- Called off, with an official result declared by the governing body: result bets follow that result (clause 5.2.7.2).
- Called off, with no official result: a bet still undecided when play stopped is refunded (clause 5.2.7.1).
- Moved to another venue: the bet is void unless agreed otherwise (clause 5.1.14).
Online bookmakers write their own versions of these rules, so read your bookmaker's terms. Markets that do run into extra time are covered in extra time and penalties.
1X2 vs draw no bet vs double chance
All three are cut from the same three results, and they trade price for cover. With illustrative prices on the same match, here is $100 on the home side three ways:
| Result | 1X2 home at $1.62 | Draw no bet home at $1.24 | Double chance 1X at $1.16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | $162 back, +$62 | $124 back, +$24 | $116 back, +$16 |
| Draw | $0, -$100 | $100 back, $0 | $116 back, +$16 |
| Away win | $0, -$100 | $0, -$100 | $0, -$100 |
The 1X2 pays most when your side wins and nothing on a draw. Draw no bet gives up some of the price to hand your stake back on a draw, and double chance gives up more to pay out on one. Only the 1X2 lets you back the draw itself, here at $4.00.
Choose by what a draw should do to your bet: lose it (1X2), refund it (draw no bet) or win it (double chance). The Asian handicap offers the same three positions as the -0.5, 0 and +0.5 lines, so check those prices as well.
Mistakes that cost money on 1X2 bets
| Mistake | What it costs, on the illustrative prices |
|---|---|
| Adding up only the two team prices | 61.73% + 18.18% = 79.91% hides a 104.91% book, and the 4.9% margin goes unseen |
| Expecting extra time to count in a cup tie | A $100 home bet loses the full $100 when the home side wins only in extra time |
| Taking the first price you see | $100 at $1.62 returns $162 on a home win; the same bet at $1.68 elsewhere returns $168 |
| Pricing the draw from the teams alone | Between two even sides expected to score 3.2 goals, the model's draw is a fair $4.27, so a $4.00 draw returns 0.2343 x 4.00 = 93.7 cents per $1 on average |
Risk: Betting involves risk. A higher price raises what a winning bet returns, but it does not change the result, and a favourite at $1.62 still loses about four times in ten at its fair chance. There is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
When the 1X2 is the wrong market
- Your view is about the margin of victory. A handicap line prices a two-goal win directly, where the 1X2 pays the same for 1-0 and 5-0.
- You expect a win but a draw is a real worry. Draw no bet or the level Asian line refunds the stake on a draw.
- You think one side will not lose. Double chance or the +0.5 line pays on a draw as well as a win.
- Your view is about goals, not the result. Totals and both teams to score do not care who wins, and soccer betting maps the rest of the markets.
Comparing 1X2 prices on the Terminal
The highest price on each outcome can sit with a different bookmaker, and taking the best available price on each one lowers the market percentage you face. If the implied chances of the three best prices ever add up to less than 100%, that is an arbitrage, which arbitrage betting explains along with the ways it fails.
On B337's Terminal, soccer head to head prices sit bookmaker by bookmaker next to the line and total markets, and the best available price on each selection is picked out. The board reads prices on a repeating cycle rather than tick by tick, so check the price in your bookmaker account before you bet. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A price on screen can trail the bookmaker's own, an arbitrage only works if every bet is accepted at the price shown, and bookmakers can limit stakes, void bets or close accounts under their terms. There is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.