Double chance betting is one bet on two of the three results of a soccer match: home or draw (1X), draw or away (X2), or home or away (12). It wins if either of your two results happens and loses only on the third, so it pays a shorter price than either result on its own.
Its price comes from the 1X2 market on home, draw and away. With illustrative prices of $2.10 home, $3.50 draw and $3.60 away, a fair home-or-draw price is about $1.36, or about $1.31 with that market's margin kept.
The three double chance bets
| Bet | Wins if | Loses if |
|---|---|---|
| 1X | the home side wins or the match is drawn | the away side wins |
| X2 | the away side wins or the match is drawn | the home side wins |
| 12 | either side wins | the match is drawn |
1 stands for the home side, X for the draw and 2 for the away side. 12 is the one people misread: it is a bet against the draw, so a 1-1 loses it.
For bets with bookmakers authorised in NSW, the Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules settle soccer, double chance included, at the end of normal time, "in most circumstances, ninety minutes plus injury time", unless agreed otherwise (clause 5.2.7.3). A cup tie level after 90 minutes wins 1X and X2 and loses 12, whoever then goes through. Other bookmakers set their own terms; soccer betting lists the markets on the same rule.
How double chance is priced from 1X2 odds
Turn each 1X2 price into an implied chance (1 / price), then divide each by the book total to take the margin out. These illustrative prices add to 103.97%:
| Result | Price | Implied chance | Fair chance (implied / 1.0397) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | $2.10 | 47.62% | 45.80% |
| Draw | $3.50 | 28.57% | 27.48% |
| Away | $3.60 | 27.78% | 26.72% |
A double chance adds two fair chances, and its fair price is 1 / that sum. To keep the margin, add the two implied chances instead:
| Bet | Fair chance | Fair price | Price with the margin kept |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X | 45.80% + 27.48% = 73.28% | 1 / 0.7328 = $1.36 | 1 / (0.4762 + 0.2857) = $1.31 |
| X2 | 27.48% + 26.72% = 54.20% | 1 / 0.5420 = $1.85 | 1 / (0.2857 + 0.2778) = $1.77 |
| 12 | 45.80% + 26.72% = 72.52% | 1 / 0.7252 = $1.38 | 1 / (0.4762 + 0.2778) = $1.33 |
Bookmaker margin explains the de-vig step, and the fair odds calculator runs it on up to 30 prices.
Double chance vs draw no bet
Double chance 1X pays out on a draw at a short price, while draw no bet on the home side hands your stake back on a draw at a longer one. From the same market with its margin kept, home draw no bet is 2.10 x (3.50 - 1) / 3.50 = $1.50. With $50 on each (illustrative):
| Result | Double chance 1X at $1.31 | Home draw no bet at $1.50 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | $65.50 back, $15.50 profit | $75.00 back, $25.00 profit |
| Draw | $65.50 back, $15.50 profit | $50.00 back, no profit |
| Away win | $50 lost | $50 lost |
Draw no bet returns more on average only if you rate the home win at more than 1.63 times the draw's chance. Per $1 staked it is 19c ahead on a home win and 31c behind on a draw: 0.31 / 0.19 = 1.63. On the Asian handicap, 1X is the same bet as the home side at +0.5, and draw no bet is the same bet as a 0 line.
Getting the better double chance price
The margin-kept price is what splitting one stake across the two results pays. The two stakes go on in proportion to each result's implied chance, which on these prices puts them in the ratio 3.50 to 2.10. For an illustrative $100 on home or draw, that is $62.50 on home and $37.50 on the draw: a home win returns 62.50 x 2.10 = $131.25 and a draw 37.50 x 3.50 = $131.25, $1.3125 per $1 either way.
If a bookmaker's own 1X price is lower, the split pays more for the same two results; the dutching calculator works out the stakes, and the Asian handicap +0.5 is a third price to check.
On the Terminal, each bookmaker's soccer head to head prices sit in a column of their own, with the best available price picked out. The board reads prices on a cycle rather than tick by tick, so check each one in your bookmaker account before betting. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A split stake still loses everything on the third result, either price can move before the second bet goes on, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.