An anytime goalscorer bet wins if the player you back scores at least one goal in the match, at any point up to the end of normal time. First and last goalscorer bets need the match's first or last goal. Anytime is the easiest of the three to land, so its fair price is the shortest. In the illustrative model below, a striker expected to score 0.48 goals has a 38.1% chance to score at any time, a fair $2.62, against 16.1% to score first, a fair $6.21.
Bookmakers authorised under NSW law work to the NSW Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules. These decide soccer at the end of normal time, 90 minutes plus stoppage time (clause 5.2.7.3), and apply an all-in basis unless something else was agreed (clause 5.1.1). Other bookmakers set their own terms, so check yours.
Anytime, first and last goalscorer: what each one needs
Player X is a striker in the model below, playing the whole match:
| Market | Your bet wins if | Fair price for Player X |
|---|---|---|
| Anytime goalscorer | He scores at least once | $2.62 |
| First goalscorer | His goal is the first of the match, by either team | $6.21 |
| Last goalscorer | He scores the match's last goal | $6.21 |
| No goalscorer, in first and last markets | Nobody scores in normal time | $16.44 |
First and last cost the same here for a player on the field all match, because the model treats every minute alike; late substitutes are where they part. A team market, such as one side's first goalscorer, counts only that side's goals, and soccer betting maps the other match markets.
Anytime goal scorer odds: working out a fair price
A player's chance of scoring comes from his expected goals, m: his share of his side's goals x his side's expected goals x the share of the match he is expected to play. In a Poisson model, where e is the constant 2.718:
- chance of at least one goal = 1 - e^-m
- chance of the first goal = (m / expected goals in the match) x (1 - e^-match expected goals)
With illustrative expected goals of 1.60 for Team A and 1.20 for Team B, a total of 2.80, and Player X taking 30% of Team A's goals, m = 0.30 x 1.60 = 0.48:
| Market | Working | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime | 1 - e^-0.48 = 1 - 0.6188 | 38.12% | $2.62 |
| First goalscorer | 0.48 / 2.80 x (1 - e^-2.80) = 0.1714 x 0.9392 | 16.10% | $6.21 |
| No goalscorer | e^-2.80 | 6.081% | $16.44 |
To test a price you are offered, expected value per $1 = chance x price - 1. At an illustrative $2.85, Player X anytime is 0.3812 x 2.85 - 1 = +8.6%, and at $2.40 it is -8.5%. To score first, $7.00 is 0.1610 x 7.00 - 1 = +12.7%, and $5.60 is -9.8%.
The model is only as good as its team figures, which expected goals and Poisson distribution betting cover, and one line-up change moves m.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A fair price is an estimate, and even at a 38% chance your player fails to score in about six matches in ten. There is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Goalscorer betting rules for own goals
Under the common rule an own goal is credited to no player, not even the one who put it in his own net, so it wins no anytime bet. For first goalscorer, terms follow one of two approaches:
- Skip the own goal. The market ignores it and settles on the next goal a player scores for his own side. Clause 5.2.7.3 makes this the NSW default unless own goal was priced in the market: the bet is decided "on the basis of the goal following".
- Own goal as a selection. The market prices own goal like a player, so an opening own goal wins for that selection and every player bet loses.
The NSW clause covers first and next goalscorer only, so check how your terms treat an own goal that is the last goal.
Example: Illustrative prices and events. Team B's centre-back turns a cross into his own net after 9 minutes, Player X scores for Team A after 63 minutes, and Team A wins 2-0.
| $10 bet | Skip the own goal | Own goal as a selection |
|---|---|---|
| Player X anytime at $2.70 | Wins: $10 x 2.70 = $27.00 | Wins: $27.00 |
| Player X first goalscorer at $6.50 | Wins: $10 x 6.50 = $65.00 | Loses |
| Own goal as first goalscorer at $17.00 | Not offered | Wins: $10 x 17.00 = $170.00 |
| Player X last goalscorer at $6.50 | Wins: $65.00 | Wins: $65.00 |
A 1-0 settled by an own goal leaves a skip-the-own-goal market with nothing to settle on, and own goal covers how that case is handled.
Penalties and goal credits
A penalty converted during the match counts for the player who took it, since Law 14 of the Laws of the Game (2026/27) says "a goal may be scored directly from a penalty kick". A rebound after a save belongs to whoever scores it. Shootout kicks are another matter: Law 10 places the shootout after the match has ended, so no kick in it is a goal in the match, and extra time and penalties sets out what a shootout decides.
Penalty duty moves a price. Say 0.156 of Player X's 0.48 expected goals come from penalties, from an illustrative 0.20 penalties a match for Team A with 78% scored. If a teammate takes them, his m falls to 0.48 - 0.156 = 0.324 and his chance to 1 - e^-0.324 = 27.67%, a fair $3.61 instead of $2.62.
A called-off match has its own rule. With no official result, the NSW rules refund undecided bets and keep decided ones, naming first goalscorer (clause 5.2.7.1). On that reading, an anytime bet on a player who had already scored stands, and one on a player yet to score is refunded.
Substitutes and players who do not start
Under Law 3, competition rules allow between three and 15 named substitutes, and usually at most five can be used (competitions may add concussion substitutes, and one more in extra time), so some named substitutes may never get on. A bet on one follows the market's participation rule, which player did not play rules compares:
- Takes no part: refunded if he never takes the field. Once he comes on, even in stoppage time, the bet stands.
- All-in, the NSW default: the bet stands whether or not he plays.
- First goalscorer: some terms refund a bet on a player who comes on after the first goal, while others let it stand as a loss.
Timing moves a substitute's prices far more than a starter's. Take Player Y, illustrative, expected on after 60 minutes and scoring 25% of Team A's goals while on the field. His rate is 0.25 x 1.60 = 0.40 goals a match, for a third of a match, so m = 0.1333:
| Market for Player Y | Working | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime | 1 - e^-0.1333 | 12.48% | $8.01 |
| First goalscorer | (0.40 / 2.80) x (e^-1.8667 - e^-2.80) | 1.34% | about $75 |
| Last goalscorer | (0.40 / 2.80) x (1 - e^-0.9333) | 8.668% | $11.54 |
He can score first only if the first hour passes without a goal, which happens e^-1.8667 = 15.5% of the time here. So a rule that refunds a player who comes on after the first goal would hand his stake back the other 84.5% of the time. A starter who is substituted, injured or sent off has taken part, and his bet settles on what he did on the field.
Age matters too. The Victorian Gambling and Casino Control Commission directed in August 2023 that bets on an individual player under 18, a first goal included, must not be offered in Victoria. That is why a player under 18 can be missing from a goalscorer list there.
Goalscorers in same game multis
A goalscorer leg is tied to the result, because a side whose striker scores is a side that has scored. The model treats Player X's goals and Team A's other goals as separate Poisson counts, with means 0.48 and 1.12, beside Team B's 1.20. Adding up every scoreline each side wins gives Team A 46.66%, a fair $2.14, and Team B 28.63%, a fair $3.49. Keeping only the scorelines where Player X scores gives the joint chances:
| Pair of legs | Chance of both | Fair SGM price | The fair singles multiplied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player X to score, Team A to win | 25.66% | $3.90 | 1 / (0.3812 x 0.4666) = $5.62 |
| Player X to score, Team B to win | 5.198% | $19.24 | 1 / (0.3812 x 0.2863) = $9.16 |
Player X scoring and Team A winning land together far more often than independent legs would, so their fair same game multi price sits well below the singles multiplied; with a Team B win it is the reverse. A scorer leg can also split from both teams to score on one own goal, which wins that market and no goalscorer bet. A first goalscorer leg paired with the exact score is a scorecast, and the void-leg rules for a player who never plays are in same game multi rules.
Mistakes that cost money on goalscorer bets
| Mistake | The cost, using this page's figures |
|---|---|
| Judging a first goal price against the anytime price | An illustrative $4.60 to score first looks long beside $2.62 anytime, but 0.1610 x 4.60 - 1 = -25.9% per $1 |
| Backing a likely substitute to score first | At an illustrative $40 to score first: 0.0134 x 40 - 1 = -46.4% per $1, so look at anytime or last goalscorer instead |
| Assuming the usual penalty taker is on duty | At an illustrative $3.00 anytime: 0.3812 x 3.00 - 1 = +14.4% with penalties, 0.2767 x 3.00 - 1 = -17.0% without |
Before you back a goalscorer
- Find which minutes the market covers: normal time, unless it says it includes extra time.
- Find the own goal rule for first and last goalscorer bets.
- Find the participation rule, and in an all-in market wait for the team sheet, because a player left out costs the whole stake.
- Price the player yourself, then compare bookmakers, since one player can carry a different price at each.
Goalscorer bets are player props, and on B337's Terminal player props appear where bookmakers offer them, each bookmaker in its own column. Hold your own fair price, such as Player X's $2.62, against those columns, and confirm any price in your bookmaker account before you bet, since the board reads prices on a repeating cycle. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Finding a longer price lifts the payout on a winning bet, not the chance your player scores, and a fair price is only an estimate. There is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.