Scorecast betting is a single bet on two outcomes: the player who scores the first goal of the match, and the final correct score. NSW's betting glossary of terms defines it as selecting "a competitor to score the first goal in a soccer match and the correct final score of the game", and both halves must be right.
The halves are linked, so the fair price is not the two singles multiplied: in the illustrative model below, the pair is about a fifth more likely than that product says.
How a scorecast settles
Say you have $10 on Player A, a home striker, to score first in a 2-1 home win, at an illustrative $41.00:
| What happens | Result |
|---|---|
| Player A scores first and it ends 2-1 | Wins: $10 x 41.00 = $410 back |
| Player A scores first and it ends 2-2 | Loses: wrong score |
| The away side scores first, Player A scores later, 2-1 | Loses: wrong first goalscorer |
For NSW-authorised bookmakers, the Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules read the score when normal time ends unless agreed otherwise, so an extra-time goal changes nothing (clause 5.2.7.3). The same clause passes the goalscorer half to the goal after an opening own goal, unless own goal was a priced selection. The own goal page covers both rule types, and soccer betting the wider set of markets.
Why the first goalscorer and correct score are linked
Take illustrative expected goals of 1.5 home and 1.0 away in a simple Poisson model (e is the constant 2.718), with Player A scoring 30% of the home side's goals:
- First goalscorer: a goal happens (1 - e^-2.5 = 0.9179), the home side scores it (1.5 / 2.5 = 0.6) and Player A scores it (0.30), so 0.9179 x 0.6 x 0.30 = 0.16522, a fair $6.05.
- Correct score 2-1: (e^-1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 / 2) x (e^-1 x 1) = 0.25102 x 0.36788 = 0.09235, a fair $10.83.
- Multiplied as if independent: 0.09235 x 0.16522 = 0.015258, a fair $65.54.
In a 2-1, two of the three goals are the home side's, and in this model each order is equally likely, so the home side scores first two times in three, against 0.6 x 0.9179 = 55.1% across all matches. The real chance is 0.09235 x 2/3 x 0.30 = 0.01847, a fair $54.14.
| Final score | Correct score chance | Home side scores first | Scorecast chance | The singles multiplied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.23% | 2 in 3 | 1.85% | 1.53% |
| 1-2 | 6.16% | 1 in 3 | 0.62% | 1.02% |
| 0-1 | 8.21% | never | 0 | 1.36% |
The 1-2 is 0.3347 x 0.1839 = 0.0616 and the 0-1 is 0.2231 x 0.3679 = 0.0821. The link shortens a scorecast where the player's side scores more of the goals and lengthens it where it scores fewer, the same reason same game multi odds are not the product of their legs.
If the first goalscorer does not play
Terms can take one of three approaches when your player takes no part:
- All-in: the bet stands and loses. The NSW rules make bets all-in unless agreed otherwise (clause 5.1.1).
- Void: the whole scorecast is refunded.
- Correct score only: the goalscorer half drops out and the bet settles on the score at that score's price.
Your bookmaker's terms say which approach applies, and anytime goalscorer betting covers substitutes.
Checking a scorecast price against fair
The settlement example's $41.00 sits 24.3% below the model's fair $54.14: 41.00 / 54.14 - 1 = -24.3%. A scoreline's chance rests on the result and the expected total, and a model reads both from the head to head and total markets, which the Terminal compares across bookmakers. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A scorecast needs two unlikely things at once and usually loses, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.