AFL goal kicker betting is betting on the goals one player kicks in a match: at least one (anytime), two or more, three or more, or the first goal of the game. Only goals count, at 6 points each, and the bet settles on the player's official tally in the AFL's match statistics, under your bookmaker's terms.
How often a player gets there depends mostly on how many he usually kicks. Across the 2025 and 2026 home-and-away seasons, players averaging 2 to under 2.5 goals a game kicked at least one in 87.4% of their games and three or more in 37.4%. A first goal bet is a different question, with one winner among the 46 players named, and it sits beside the other player markets in AFL betting.
How anytime and 2 or more goals bets settle
An anytime bet wins if the player kicks one goal or more. The ladder steps up from there: 2+ needs two goals, 3+ needs three, and each rung wins on fewer results than the one below it, so its price is longer. A behind is worth 1 point and settles nothing in a goal market, and neither does a goal assist.
Extra time in a final is the edge case. The NSW Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules count extra time when settling a match result unless a draw price was offered, in which case the result is taken before extra time (clauses 5.1.2 and 5.1.7). They bind only bookmakers authorised in NSW, and a player market can be worded to settle on normal time, so check before you bet on a final.
Goal rates by player average, 2025 and 2026
From the AFL's player statistics, here is every player season of 15 or more home-and-away games, grouped by that player's average:
| Season average (goals a game) | Player seasons | Games | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 to under 1 | 121 | 2,470 | 49.6% | 15.5% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 to under 1.5 | 85 | 1,725 | 69.6% | 35.2% | 12.6% | 2.6% |
| 1.5 to under 2 | 46 | 950 | 81.9% | 50.9% | 25.6% | 9.8% |
| 2 to under 2.5 | 19 | 404 | 87.4% | 63.6% | 37.4% | 14.9% |
| 2.5 or more | 13 | 271 | 91.9% | 74.9% | 54.6% | 32.5% |
Example: Illustrative prices, not a real player or market. A forward averages 2.2 goals a game, and you take his group's rates as his chances. Fair price = 1 / rate, and return per $1 = rate x price, both worked from the rounded rates in the table.
| Bet | Rate | Fair price | Illustrative price | Return per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime | 87.4% | $1.14 | $1.10 | 96.1c |
| 2+ goals | 63.6% | $1.57 | $1.55 | 98.6c |
| 3+ goals | 37.4% | $2.67 | $2.80 | 104.7c |
| 4+ goals | 14.9% | $6.71 | $6.00 | 89.4c |
Only the 3+ row sits above fair: 1 / 0.374 = $2.67, and 0.374 x 2.80 = 1.047. That holds only if the group rate is his real chance, and his role, opponent, ground and game time all shift it. The groups are also sorted on the same games they measure, which flatters the higher groups' rates, so read the table as a range check, not as his price.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A group rate describes past games, not the next one, and a goal bet priced above it can still lose, and often does. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
First goal kicker bets: why they pay long
The first goal of a match is kicked by one player, so the market has a single winner from a list of 46. A rough estimate of one player's chance multiplies the chance his team kicks the first goal by his share of his team's goals.
The shares are measurable. In 2025 and 2026, players averaging 2.5 goals or more kicked 20.2% of their team's goals in the games they played. Those averaging 2 to under 2.5 kicked 16.3%, and those averaging 1.5 to under 2 kicked 12.8%.
Example: Illustrative chances. A forward averaging 2.7 goals plays in an even game, where his team is a 50% chance to kick the first goal. His estimate = 0.50 x 0.202 = 10.1%, a fair price of 1 / 0.101 = $9.90. If his team is a 60% chance to kick first, the estimate is 0.60 x 0.202 = 12.1%, or about $8.25.
The estimate assumes the first goal is shared out the way all goals are, a simplification, since who starts forward can tilt it. It still shows how far a long list can be shaded: at an illustrative $8.00, the even-game estimate returns 0.101 x 8.00 = 80.8c per $1.
Bench and did-not-start rules for first goal bets
Your bookmaker writes the participation test for first goal bets into its own terms. Three common rule types:
| Rule type | The bet is void if | The bet stands if |
|---|---|---|
| Takes no part | The player never takes the field | He plays any part of the match, even after the first goal |
| Named in the team | He is not among the 23 in the final team | He is in the final 23, on the ground or on the interchange bench |
| All-in | Never: no refund | Always |
Each club lodges an official team sheet 60 minutes before the scheduled start, with 23 players (five on the interchange bench) and three emergencies (AFL Regulations 12.1 and 12.2, 11 February 2026 version). Until play starts, a listed player who is injured, ill or unavailable for personal reasons can be replaced only by one of those emergencies. The emergency can go straight into the starting 18 or onto the bench (Regulation 12.3).
Example: Illustrative price. You have $10 on Player Z at $11.00 to kick the first goal, and he is withdrawn after the team sheet, with an emergency taking his place. Under a takes-no-part or named-in-the-team rule the bet is void and your $10 comes back; under an all-in rule it loses. Had he started on the bench and come on after the first goal, it would lose under all three.
The NSW rule book starts from all-in: unless a bookmaker authorised in NSW agrees or states another basis, the bet stands even if he never takes the field (clause 5.1.1). Player did not play rules compares the rule types across sports.
Can a first goal bet end in a dead heat?
No. One player kicks the first goal, so the bet wins or loses outright and a dead heat clause has nothing to split. Ties come in the neighbouring markets, where players can share the answer: most goals in the match, a team's leading goal kicker and the Coleman Medal.
Dead heats in most goals markets, worked
A most goals bet pays on the player who kicks the most goals in the match, and the top tally is often shared. In the AFL's 2025 and 2026 home-and-away statistics, two or more players shared the highest tally in 157 of 414 games (37.9%): 82 two-way ties, 38 three-way ties and 37 ties of four or more. Most came where the best tally was three goals, 101 of the 157.
Where a rule book covers a tie, the payout is split. For bookmakers authorised in NSW, the NSW Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules divide the ticket's face value by the number of players tied, then multiply by the number of placings they fill (clause 5.1.8). That applies when no tie price was offered; if one was, every other bet loses (clause 5.1.7).
Example: Illustrative price. You put $25 on Player A at $7.20 to kick the most goals, a face value of $25 x 7.20 = $180.
| Result | Payout | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Player A kicks the most on his own | $180.00 | $155.00 |
| Two-way tie | $180 / 2 = $90.00 | $65.00 |
| Three-way tie | $180 / 3 = $60.00 | $35.00 |
| Four-way tie | $180 / 4 = $45.00 | $20.00 |
A tied bet makes a profit only while the price is above the number of players tied. Inside a multi, the same rules cut a tied leg to its share (clause 5.1.9), so this leg would count at $7.20 / 2 = $3.60 in a two-way tie. Online bookmakers write their own tie rules into their terms, so check yours; dead heat rules works through ties across racing and sport.
Forwards' roles, team selection and late changes
Goal markets follow a player's job: key forwards are the marking targets near goal, small forwards feed off ground balls, and midfielders or ruckmen resting forward kick less. Forwards averaging two or more goals spent a median 85% of the game on the ground in 2025 and 2026.
His team's night matters as much as his own: teams averaged 15.19 goals in their wins and 9.98 in their losses across those two seasons. Accuracy adds noise. The same forwards were goalless in 73 of their 675 games (10.8%), in 49 of those 73 they kicked at least one behind, and in 7 they had four or more shots at goal. Their 2,944 shots produced 1,657 goals, 56.3%.
Team news decides who is in the market. The AFL dropped the substitute for 2026, so a late out is replaced only by a listed emergency, and a key forward's absence moves his share of the goals to his teammates. AFL team selections and betting follows the week of team news.
One state rule removes some markets altogether. In Victoria, the gambling regulator (the VGCCC) announced on 3 August 2023 a direction that bars bets on individual player outcomes, first goal among them, for players under 18.
Goal kickers in same game multis
A goal leg and the team's result are linked. Players averaging 1.5 to under 2 goals in 2025 and 2026 kicked two or more in 57.1% of their team's wins (545 games) and 42.5% of its losses (395 games). A bet on a team to win and its forward to kick two therefore lands more often than the two chances multiplied, and a same game multi (SGM) price allows for that.
AFL same game multis shows how these links are priced, including two rungs for one player, and player props betting covers how prop lines are set.
Costly goal kicker mistakes
| Mistake | What it costs |
|---|---|
| Treating an anytime bet as certain | At $1.10, a forward in the 2 to under 2.5 group returns 96.1c per $1 at the group rate, and that group missed in 100% - 87.4% = 12.6% of games |
| Taking a short first goal price | $8.00 on an estimated 10.1% chance returns 80.8c per $1 |
| Ignoring the bench on a first goal bet | A bench player who comes on after the first goal loses the whole stake under all three rule types |
| Counting behinds | Four behinds and no goals loses every goal bet on the player |
| Expecting a tie to pay in full | Under a dead heat rule, a two-way tie for most goals at an illustrative $1.80 returns $1.80 / 2 = $0.90 per $1, a 10c loss |
When to leave a goal kicker market alone
- Before the team sheet, if your terms make first goal bets all-in: a player left out loses the whole stake, and the team sheet is not due until an hour before the start.
- When a player's role is in doubt, such as a forward sent into the ruck or one back from injury on limited minutes.
- In a most goals market at a short price, where a shared top tally (37.9% of games in 2025 and 2026) can turn a winning bet into a loss.
Checking a goal price across bookmakers
On an illustrative $25 bet, 3+ goals at $2.80 returns $25 x 2.80 = $70.00 if it wins, while $3.10 at another bookmaker returns $25 x 3.10 = $77.50 for the same three goals.
B337's Terminal shows prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports side by side. Its sports board covers AFL head to head, line and total markets, with player props where bookmakers offer them, though not every bookmaker prices every game. Prices are read on a repeating cycle, not tick by tick, so confirm the price in your bookmaker account before you bet. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A better price changes what a winning goal bet returns, not whether the player kicks the goal, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.