Win to nil means a team wins the match without conceding a goal. Under the NSW rule book, the bet needs both at the end of normal time: a 1-0 or a 4-0 wins it, while a 3-1, a 0-0 or a goal against in stoppage time loses it.
It sits inside both the head to head and the clean sheet. In the illustrative match below, the home side wins 58.6% of the time and keeps a clean sheet 40.7% of the time, but wins to nil only 33.9% of the time, a fair price of $2.95.
How a win to nil bet settles
For a bet on the home side to win to nil:
| What happens | Home win to nil |
|---|---|
| 1-0 or 4-0 at the end of normal time | Wins |
| 0-0 | Loses: nobody won |
| 3-1 | Loses: a goal conceded |
| 2-0 at 90 minutes, 2-1 after a goal at 90+3 | Loses: stoppage time counts |
| 0-0 at 90 minutes, 1-0 in extra time | Loses: the bet settles at 0-0 |
| 2-0, then a home defender's own goal for 2-1 | Loses: an own goal is a goal against |
The rule book for bookmakers authorised in NSW, the Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules, decides soccer when normal time ends, in most circumstances 90 minutes plus injury time, unless agreed otherwise (clause 5.2.7.3). Check your own bookmaker's wording; soccer betting has the wider list of match markets.
Win to nil, clean sheet and the head to head
Win to nil is a head to head win and a clean sheet at the same time. Two identities follow:
- Win to nil = clean sheet - 0-0. A clean sheet covers every score where the other side has 0, and the only one of those that is not a win is the 0-0.
- Home win to nil is the same bet as home win with both teams to score No. If the home side wins it has scored, so both teams to score No can only mean the away side did not.
A worked price comparison
With illustrative expected goals of 1.8 for the home side and 0.9 for the away side, in a simple Poisson model (e is the constant 2.718):
| Bet | Working | Fair chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | home scores 1, 2, 3 or 4+ goals, away fewer: 0.12097 + 0.20686 + 0.15057 + 0.10767 = 0.5861 | 58.6% | $1.71 |
| Home clean sheet | e^-0.9 = 0.4066 | 40.7% | $2.46 |
| Home win to nil | 0.4066 - 0.0672 (the 0-0, e^-2.7) = 0.3394 | 33.9% | $2.95 |
| Home win x clean sheet (a mistake) | 0.5861 x 0.4066 = 0.2383 | 23.8% | $4.20 |
The home win figure is the home result in the 1X2 market, summed over 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and every other home-winning score. Multiplying it by the clean sheet treats the two as independent, and they are not: once the away side has scored nothing, the home side wins whenever it scores, 0.3394 / 0.4066 = 83.5% of the time. Here 0.3394 / 0.5861 = 57.9% of the home side's wins come to nil.
Finding the longer price for the same result
Because home win to nil and home win with both teams to score No are the same bet, one result can carry two prices, one in each market, and the longer one pays more for exactly the same outcome. The Terminal compares soccer head to head and total prices across bookmakers, the two markets that supply the expected goals behind a model like the one above. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A win to nil bet needs two things to go right and one late goal undoes it, a fair price is an estimate, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.