Clean sheet betting is a bet that a named team concedes no goals in the match, whatever it scores itself, so a 0-0 and a 3-0 both count.
The price follows the goals the opposition is expected to score. If that is 1.2 goals, a simple Poisson model gives a clean sheet e^-1.2 = 30.1% (e is the constant 2.718), a fair price of 1 / 0.301 = $3.32 (illustrative).
How a clean sheet bet settles
Bets with bookmakers authorised in NSW fall under clause 5.2.7.3 of the Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules, which decides soccer on the score when normal time ends, unless agreed otherwise. The rules define normal time to include time match officials add for stoppages, but not extra time. That gives three edge cases:
- A goal against in stoppage time ends the clean sheet, even at 90+7.
- A goal against in extra time does not: a cup tie that is 0-0 after 90 minutes has already won a clean sheet bet on either side.
- A goal the referee rules out, after a review or not, never counts against it.
A team can keep a clean sheet without winning, which is the gap between this bet and win to nil. Other bookmakers write their own soccer rules, so check yours; the soccer betting hub explains the 90-minute rule across markets.
Clean sheet vs both teams to score
Both teams to score No wins whenever at least one side keeps a clean sheet. With illustrative expected goals of 1.6 for the home side and 1.2 for the away side:
| Bet | Wins when | Fair chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home clean sheet | the away side scores 0 | e^-1.2 = 30.1% | $3.32 |
| Away clean sheet | the home side scores 0 | e^-1.6 = 20.2% | $4.95 |
| Both teams to score: No | either side scores 0 | 30.1% + 20.2% - 6.1% = 44.2% | $2.26 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | both sides score | 100% - 44.2% = 55.8% | $1.79 |
The 6.1% is the 0-0 (e^-2.8), a clean sheet for both sides that must only be counted once. Both teams to score No is the broader bet, so its fair price is shorter than either clean sheet's.
Own goals and the clean sheet
An own goal counts for the other side, so it ends the clean sheet of the team whose net it went into. The NSW rules' own goal clause changes first and next goalscorer bets only (5.2.7.3), so a market settled on the score counts an own goal like any other goal.
Example: Illustrative, not a real match. The home side leads 2-0 when one of its defenders turns a cross into his own net at 88 minutes, and it ends 2-1. A home clean sheet bet loses, and so does home win to nil. On the score, both teams to score Yes wins, while no away player is credited with the goal.
The own goal page sets out how each market treats one.
Where the clean sheet price comes from
A model can read the opposition's expected goals from the over/under goals market and the head to head. On the Terminal those soccer markets sit bookmaker by bookmaker. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A clean sheet can go in the last seconds of stoppage time, a model's chance is only an estimate, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.