A same game multi strategy is a set of rules for building same game multis (SGMs) with the costs in view. Use the fewest legs your view of the game needs, combine legs that move together for a reason you can name, and compare the identical ticket across bookmakers before you bet. Every leg brings its own margin into the ticket, and in an SGM the legs are priced together, so a big price can still be a poor one.
No SGM strategy turns a same game multi into a winning bet on its own. The aim is to know what each ticket costs and to stop paying for legs that add nothing. The market types behind every leg are set out in sports betting explained.
What each extra leg costs: two legs against five
Start with the plainest case, using illustrative numbers: legs that do not affect each other, each a 50% chance priced at $1.88. A dollar on one leg returns 0.50 x 1.88 = 94c on average, a cost of 6c. Joined into one ticket, the costs compound: every leg multiplies the average return by another 0.94. Multis vs singles does the same sum for multis across games.
| Legs | Average return per $100 (100 x 0.94, once per leg) | Average cost per $100 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 x 0.94 = $94.00 | $6.00 |
| 2 | 100 x 0.94 x 0.94 = $88.36 | $11.64 |
| 3 | $83.06 | $16.94 |
| 4 | $78.07 | $21.93 |
| 5 | $73.39 | $26.61 |
The chance of landing falls faster than the cost rises. With $10 on each ticket:
| Two-leg ticket | Five-leg ticket | |
|---|---|---|
| Price, legs multiplied | 1.88 x 1.88 = 3.5344 | 1.88 multiplied five times = 23.4849 |
| Chance every leg lands | 0.50 x 0.50 = 25% | 0.50 multiplied five times = 3.1% |
| $10 returns on a win | $10 x 3.5344 = $35.34 | $10 x 23.4849 = $234.85 |
| Average back per $10 | 0.25 x $35.34 = $8.84 | 0.03125 x $234.85 = $7.34 |
| Chance of 20 losing tickets in a row | 0.75 multiplied 20 times = 0.3% | 0.96875 multiplied 20 times = 53% |
On these numbers, a five-leg ticket lands once in 32 tries on average (1 / 0.03125 = 32), and a run of 20 straight losses is more likely than not.
Real SGM legs are linked, so their chances do not multiply like this, and the bookmaker prices the link in. That moves the landing chance and the price together without taking out the margin each leg brings, so a long ticket still tends to cost more than a short one. How SGM odds are calculated takes the pricing apart.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Fewer legs lower a ticket's average cost and let it land more often, but the two-leg ticket here still loses three times in four.
Legs that belong together, and legs that only add cost
Two legs belong on one ticket when one helps the other happen, for a reason you could explain before you see the price. With Team A as the favourite in an illustrative game:
| Pair | Why they move together or apart | How to treat it |
|---|---|---|
| Team A to win, and its leading scorer over his points line | His points are part of Team A's score | Linked: the price is cut for it, so back it only if your view of him beats that price |
| Team A to win, and Team B's best player to have a big game | His big game makes Team A's win less likely | Pulling apart: the ticket needs an unusual game |
| Player X 25 or more disposals, and Player X 20 or more | The second leg sits inside the first | Redundant: it adds nothing to your view, and any margin on it is pure cost |
The links differ by sport: AFL same game multis covers goal kickers, disposals and margins.
The rule for adding a leg
A leg that lands with probability p, given that the rest of the ticket lands, has to multiply the SGM price by at least 1 / p to keep the ticket's average return where it was.
Example: Illustrative numbers. A two-leg SGM is $3.10, and adding a short leg you think lands 96% of the time with the other two lifts it to $3.17, a rise of 3.17 / 3.10 = 1.023. To pay its way the leg needed 1 / 0.96 = 1.042, a price of 3.10 x 1.042 = $3.23. At $3.17 the ticket's average return falls by 1 - 0.96 x 3.17 / 3.10 = 1.8%.
Short legs, such as one at $1.05 added to reach an offer's minimum price, are where this bites: they barely move the ticket, yet when one fails the ticket goes with it.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Legs that belong together also lose together.
Compare the same SGM across bookmakers
Each bookmaker prices the link between legs its own way, so one ticket can vary more between bookmakers than its single legs do. With illustrative prices for the same three legs, and your own estimate that the ticket lands 22% of the time (a fair price of 1 / 0.22 = $4.55):
| Bookmaker | SGM price | $25 returns on a win | Average return per $1 (0.22 x price) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker A | $4.40 | $110.00 | 0.968, a cost of about 3.2c |
| Bookmaker B | $4.75 | $118.75 | 1.045, about 4.5c above the stake |
| Bookmaker C | $4.10 | $102.50 | 0.902, a cost of about 9.8c |
Bookmaker B pays $16.25 more than Bookmaker C on the same win ($118.75 - $102.50), and on your estimate the ticket goes from a cost to a small edge by where you place it. The estimate is the weak point: a linked ticket's true chance is harder to judge than a single bet's, and correlated bets sets out a step-by-step way to estimate one from each leg's fair chance.
Before you compare, check the tickets are the same:
- Thresholds: 20 or more is not the same leg as over 20.5, which needs 21.
- Periods: a leg that counts extra time differs from one settled at the end of normal time.
- Rules: void and dead heat terms can differ, and same game multi rules shows what a late out does to a ticket.
- Availability: a bookmaker may not allow one of your legs, or the combination.
For single bets, the same habit is line shopping.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A higher SGM price pays more only when every leg wins, and an edge built on your own estimate is only as good as the estimate.
When a saver or stake-back offer changes the value
A saver or stake-back offer pays something back when a ticket loses in a set way, for example when exactly one leg fails, often as a bonus bet with a cap. It can change a ticket's value by paying on outcomes that would otherwise return nothing.
Example: Illustrative numbers, not a current offer. A $20 three-leg SGM at $6.00, where you estimate all three legs land 15% of the time and exactly one fails 35% of the time. If exactly one leg fails, the offer returns your stake as a bonus bet, up to a cap, and you value a bonus bet at 70% of its face value once used.
| No offer | Offer with a $20 cap | Offer with a $10 cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ticket's average return | 0.15 x 6.00 x $20 = $18.00 | $18.00 | $18.00 |
| Refund's average value | $0.00 | 0.35 x $20 x 0.70 = $4.90 | 0.35 x $10 x 0.70 = $2.45 |
| Total per $20 staked | $18.00 | $22.90 | $20.45 |
| Average result | -$2.00 | +$2.90 | +$0.45 |
On these numbers the offer turns a ticket costing 10% into one returning about 14.5% above the stake, and a smaller cap takes most of that away. Same game multis lists the common offer shapes, and the bonus bet converter shows what a stake-not-returned bonus bet can be turned into if you hedge it at an exchange.
The 35% is the hard number, because linked legs change how often a ticket misses by exactly one: same game multi promotions works it out from the leg pairs and values the refund.
A saver offer does not stop a same game multi from losing. On these estimates half the tickets get nothing back, neither a win nor a refund (1 - 0.15 - 0.35 = 0.50), and a bonus bet that loses pays nothing.
Risk: Betting involves risk. An offer's value rests on your estimates and on terms the bookmaker sets, and it never turns a losing ticket into a winner.
Building a ticket, step by step
- Write your view of the game in one sentence before you open the bet slip.
- Pick the one or two legs that state that view most directly, and add another only if it follows from that view.
- Check each leg's single price. A leg you would not back on its own needs a clear link to the others to earn its place.
- Read the void, dead heat and extra-time rules for each leg, and check the team news.
- Build the identical ticket at two or three bookmakers, and pass if none beats your own fair price.
- Place it before the game starts: online sports bets close then under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (s 8A(3) and s 10B), so nothing can be swapped later.
- Set the stake before you look at the payout, and keep it to what you planned to bet.
Mistakes that make SGMs cost more
| Mistake | What it costs, on this page's numbers | Fix |
|---|---|---|
| Adding legs for a bigger payout | Going from two legs to five cuts the average return per $100 from $88.36 to $73.39 | Stop at the legs your view needs |
| Padding with a short leg | A 96% leg that lifts the price 2.3% cuts the average return by about 1.8% | Add a leg only if it multiplies the price by more than 1 / its chance of landing with the rest |
| Taking the first SGM price | $25 at $4.10 instead of $4.75 returns $16.25 less on a win | Build the same ticket at more than one bookmaker |
| Chasing a near miss with a bigger ticket | More legs and a bigger stake raise the average cost twice over | Keep to the stake and leg limits you set beforehand |
Risk: Betting involves risk. Cutting these costs lowers what SGMs take from you on average; it does nothing to stop the next ticket losing.
When to skip the SGM
- Your legs have nothing to do with each other. Separate singles, or a standard multi across games, price each leg on its own.
- Your view is one leg. Back it as a single instead of wrapping it in legs you have no view on.
- The team news is not in, and a player leg could become a re-priced ticket you did not choose.
- You are adding legs to win back what an earlier ticket lost. That is a reason to stop, and the support line below is free and confidential.
Where SGM Saver fits
B337's SGM Saver strategy only places same game multis for saver or stake-back offers a bookmaker has already put on your own account. It does not make a ticket more likely to win.
You set its limits: the games it may bet on, the most legs one multi can have, the minimum and maximum combined odds, and the player markets it may use in each sport. It builds within them, or places legs you choose, once the bookmaker confirms the offer applies.
It covers AFL, NRL, NBA and soccer at seven bookmakers, bets only before the game starts, and runs from the bot on your computer, placing nothing while the computer is off, asleep or offline. SGM Saver comes with Full Automation, set up with the team; the price, and any charges on top, is confirmed before you pay, and each bet placed through B337 uses credits. Same game multi automation walks through a session.
Automation can bet far more, far faster, than by hand, so a deposit limit at each bookmaker is the firmer cap. Many bookmakers restrict or prohibit automated betting in their terms. A bookmaker can also limit your stakes, void your bets or close your account, and that risk is yours.
For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A saver offer does not stop a same game multi from losing, an offer's value depends on its terms, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.