Same game multi promotions are offers that pay something back on a same game multi (SGM) that loses in a way the terms set, most often your stake back as a bonus bet when exactly one leg fails. Every leg comes from one game, so the legs are linked. Treating them as independent gives the wrong chance of missing by exactly one leg: in the illustrative three-leg example below it is 32%, not 40%.
An offer like this changes what an SGM is worth, not how often it wins. In the example, a $25 SGM at $4.00 is worth -$3.00 on average by itself and a one-leg refund paid as a bonus bet adds about $5.20, but the multi still loses on 78% of games.
The common shapes of SGM promotions
Each of the three main shapes pays on a different trigger, so each needs a different chance to value it:
| Shape | What triggers the payout | What it usually pays | The chance that values it |
|---|---|---|---|
| One-leg-fails refund, often called SGM bonus back or SGM insurance | Every leg wins but one | The stake back as a bonus bet, up to a cap | Exactly one leg failing |
| Stake-back saver, as a token on your account or on a named game | The SGM loses, however it loses | Some or all of the stake back, usually as a bonus bet, up to a cap | The SGM losing |
| SGM boost | Applied before you bet | A higher price or extra winnings on the whole SGM | The SGM winning |
Bonus back means the refund arrives as a bonus bet, which usually pays its winnings only and so is worth less than its face value. Under the national consumer protection framework, bonus bet winnings must be withdrawable with no turnover requirement, while each bookmaker's terms set how the bonus bet itself is used, including its expiry.
Boosts are valued against a fair price instead, which odds boosts explained covers. In NSW, Liquor & Gaming NSW's guideline GL4015 lists refund offers, paid as a bonus bet or as cash, among the inducements that may not be advertised to the world at large (checked October 2026). Certain offers can still go directly to account holders who have agreed to receive them. Same game multis explains the bet itself, and betting promotions in Australia maps the other promotion types and the Commonwealth's 2026 inducement rules.
Why linked legs change the chance of losing by one leg
The legs of an SGM come from one game, so they are linked, and legs like these rise and fall together: a side that wins comfortably usually has its key forward kicking goals and plenty of points on the board. Bookmakers price that link in, which is why an SGM with legs like these pays less than its legs multiplied (how SGM odds are calculated shows the pricing), and the same link changes how often a multi misses by exactly one leg.
Example: Illustrative chances, not a real game or a current offer. A three-leg AFL SGM: the home side to win (60%), its key forward to kick two or more goals (50%) and the match to go over the total points line (50%). Taken in pairs, the win and the goals both land 36% of the time, the win and the total 31%, and the goals and the total 31%. All three land together 22% of the time.
| How the three legs finish | Linked legs (this example) | Legs treated as independent |
|---|---|---|
| All three win | 22% | 60% x 50% x 50% = 15% |
| Exactly one leg fails | 36% + 31% + 31% - 3 x 22% = 32% | 40% x 50% x 50% + 2 x (60% x 50% x 50%) = 40% |
| Exactly two legs fail | 100% - 22% - 32% - 16% = 30% | 60% x 50% x 50% + 2 x (40% x 50% x 50%) = 35% |
| All three fail | 100% - 84% = 16% | 40% x 50% x 50% = 10% |
At least one leg wins 60% + 50% + 50% - 36% - 31% - 31% + 22% = 84% of the time, which leaves 16% for all three failing.
The shortcut in the second row works for any SGM: the chance that exactly one leg fails = the sum of the chances of each combination that leaves one leg out - the number of legs x the chance that every leg wins. The subtraction is needed because each of those combinations also counts the games where the left-out leg wins. For four legs, add the four three-leg chances and take off 4 x the all-four chance.
Linked legs push results towards the ends, where all three win or all three fail: here those rise from 15% to 22% and from 10% to 16%, while the one-leg trigger drops from 40% to 32%. Legs that pull against each other, such as a home win with the away side's key forward kicking four or more goals, tend to do the reverse.
The pair chances are the hard part. The bookmaker's SGM builder will price each two-leg combination, and 1 / that price is an implied chance with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the answer is a rough estimate rather than a fair one.
Worked value: a refund paid as a bonus bet
With illustrative prices, the bookmaker offers the three legs at $1.60, $1.90 and $1.90, which multiply to 1.60 x 1.90 x 1.90 = $5.78. It prices the SGM at $4.00: an implied chance of 1 / 4.00 = 25%, against the 22% the example gives. You stake $25, and the account holds a one-leg-fails refund paid as a bonus bet, capped above $25. A bonus bet is not cash: valued at an assumed 65 cents in the dollar, roughly what you might keep by hedging it, a $25 bonus bet is worth $25 x 0.65 = $16.25.
| Piece of the bet | Working | Expected value |
|---|---|---|
| The SGM by itself | 22% x $25 x 4.00 - $25 = $22.00 - $25 | -$3.00 |
| The one-leg-fails refund, as a bonus bet | 32% x $16.25 | +$5.20 |
| The SGM with the refund | -$3.00 + $5.20 | +$2.20 |
| The same refund paid in cash | -$3.00 + 32% x $25 = -$3.00 + $8.00 | +$5.00 |
| A saver that refunds any loss as a bonus bet | -$3.00 + 78% x $16.25 | +$9.68 |
What the table shows:
- The offer lifts the bet from -$3.00 to about +$2.20, but the multi still loses its $25 on 100% - 22% = 78% of games. On 32% of all games (32 / 78 = about 41% of the losing ones) you get a $25 bonus bet back, which pays nothing if it loses.
- Treating the legs as independent overstates this refund. At 40% it looks worth 40% x $16.25 = $6.50, which is $1.30 more than the linked chance supports.
- Cash beats a bonus bet of the same size: $8.00 against $5.20.
The 65% is an assumption: the bonus bet converter works out what a refund would keep at the prices you can get, after exchange commission.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A saver offer does not stop a same game multi from losing, and a refund paid as a bonus bet pays nothing if that bonus bet loses. Expected value is an average over many bets, not what one game pays. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Terms that decide whether an SGM qualifies
These terms change the value most, and the bookmaker decides whether a multi qualifies:
- Minimum legs: a refund may need three or more legs, and every leg you add lowers the chance that all of them win. A short-priced leg added only to reach the minimum can still be the one that fails.
- Minimum odds, for each leg or for the whole multi.
- Eligible games and markets: some player markets or games can sit outside the offer.
- The cap: the most the refund covers. Above it you are betting a plain SGM, worth 22% x 4.00 - 1 = -0.12 per dollar here, a loss of 12 cents.
- How you stake: some offers exclude an SGM placed with a bonus bet.
- The refund's form and expiry: cash or a bonus bet, and how long the bonus bet lasts. An expired bonus bet is worth nothing, here the whole $16.25.
- Void legs: if a player does not take the field, the bookmaker's rules may remove the leg and re-price the ticket, void the ticket, or let the leg stand and lose. A re-priced ticket can fall below the minimum legs or odds. Same game multi rules covers how void legs settle.
If a term that matters is unclear, ask the bookmaker in writing before you bet.
Mistakes that cost money with SGM savers
Costed on the $25 example:
| Mistake | What it costs |
|---|---|
| Treating the legs as independent to find the refund chance | Overstates the refund by $6.50 - $5.20 = $1.30 |
| Counting a bonus bet refund as cash | Overstates it by $8.00 - $5.20 = $2.80 |
| Staking above the cap | Each extra dollar is a plain SGM, worth -12 cents |
| Letting the refund bonus bet expire | $16.25 of expected value, the whole bonus bet |
| Building the multi before reading the terms, or a second SGM once the offer is used | No refund behind it, so the bet is worth -$3.00 per $25 |
Risk: Betting involves risk. Avoiding these mistakes protects an offer's average value, not any single multi, and a refund bonus bet that is used and loses pays nothing. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
When an SGM saver is not worth using
Use a saver when the multi you would build anyway is worth more than zero with the offer, on your own estimate of the chances. Skip it when:
- The SGM price is too short for the refund to cover. At $3.40 instead of $4.00, the same SGM is worth 22% x $25 x 3.40 - $25 = -$6.30, and the refund's $5.20 leaves it at about -$1.10.
- You cannot estimate the pair chances, because the combinations will not price or the markets are thin.
- The eligible markets force legs you would not otherwise choose.
- You would be betting more, or more often, than you planned. Offers are designed to get you betting, and how to stop betting promotions covers opting out.
A refund on a multi across separate games is a different calculation, because legs from different games can be treated as independent: multi insurance works through that version.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A saver that makes a multi worth more than zero on average still leaves it losing its stake on most games. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
SGM Saver: placing SGMs for offers already on your accounts
SGM Saver, B337's same game multi strategy, starts from offers a bookmaker has already put on your own accounts. On each game you pick, it builds and places a multi for the saver or stake-back offer the account holds, but places nothing until the bookmaker confirms the offer applies, and skips the game if the bookmaker does not. It never creates or claims an offer, so an account with no offer gets no SGM.
It runs at seven bookmakers, for AFL, NRL, NBA and soccer games. Your limits set the games, a floor and ceiling on combined odds, the most legs per multi and the player markets for each sport. It can choose the legs or place yours, with hand-picked legs re-priced live as the bet goes on. Bets go on before the game starts, and each multi stays inside one game.
To run it you need Full Automation and your own computer, which has to be on, awake and online. You set Full Automation up with the team, and the team confirms what it costs, along with any charges on top of the plan price, before you pay; the bets themselves use credits, B337's per-bet usage charge. Same game multi automation covers the settings.
For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A saver offer does not stop a same game multi from losing. Many bookmakers restrict automated betting in their terms, and any of them can cut your stakes, void bets or close your account, a risk that sits with you. Automation can bet far more, far faster, than by hand, so set a deposit limit with each bookmaker first. See responsible gambling for limits and support.