Over under betting, also called totals betting, is a bet on how much is scored in a game rather than on who wins it. The bookmaker sets a number, such as 46.5 points, and you bet that the two teams' combined score finishes over or under it. At 47 or more the over wins, and at 46 or fewer the under does, no matter which team scores them.
The same bet works on any count a game produces: goals in soccer, games in tennis, runs in cricket, legs or 180s in darts, or a single player's disposals or points. Each side is priced near even money, the number sits near where the bookmaker expects the total to land, and it moves with weather and team news until the game starts.
How an over under bet settles
With an illustrative rugby league total of 46.5, the over at $1.95 and the under at $1.87, and $25 on each side:
| Final score | Total | Over 46.5 at $1.95 | Under 46.5 at $1.87 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 to 18 | 44 | Loses | Returns $46.75 |
| 30 to 16 | 46 | Loses | Returns $46.75 |
| 28 to 20 | 48 | Returns $48.75 | Loses |
| 24 to 24 | 48 | Returns $48.75 | Loses |
| 6 to 42 | 48 | Returns $48.75 | Loses |
Return = stake x price, so $25 x 1.95 = $48.75, a $23.75 profit, and $25 x 1.87 = $46.75, a $21.75 profit. The last three rows show that the result does not matter: a draw and a 36-point thrashing settle the total the same way.
The two prices carry the bookmaker's margin. Their implied probabilities are 1 / 1.95 = 51.28% and 1 / 1.87 = 53.48%, which add up to 104.76%. They double as the strike rates each side needs to break even: 51.28% of over bets at $1.95, or 53.48% of under bets at $1.87.
Totals that can land exactly on the number
Scores are whole numbers, so a total with a .5 on the end can never be hit exactly. A whole-number total adds a third result. At a total of 46, the 30 to 16 game above lands exactly on the number, which is a push: under the usual rule type, each side simply gets its $25 back. Your bookmaker's terms decide that, so read them.
How often a game lands on one number depends on how it scores. AFL scores move in 1s and 6s and can finish on almost any total. Rugby league totals mostly finish on even numbers, so a whole-number total of 46 in an NRL game pushes far more often than one of 45 would. The half-point line is how bookmakers take pushes out altogether, and soccer's Asian totals, such as 2.25 goals, split your stake across two totals instead.
What counts towards the total, sport by sport
| Sport | What is counted | What to check | Guide |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFL | Points: 6 for a goal, 1 for a behind | Extra time in finals | AFL total points betting |
| NRL | Points: 4 for a try, 2 for a conversion or penalty goal, 1 for a field goal, or 2 from outside the 40-metre line | Golden point | NRL total points betting |
| Soccer | Goals | Under the NSW rule book, normal time only: 90 minutes plus whatever stoppage time is added (clause 5.2.7.3) | over under goals |
| Basketball | Points | Overtime | NBA total points betting |
| Tennis | Games, with a tiebreak counted as one game, so 7-5 7-6 is 25 games | A player retiring mid-match | tennis total games |
| Cricket | Runs in an innings or a match | A rain-shortened innings | cricket total runs |
| Darts | Legs, sets or 180s, depending on the market | The match format | darts betting |
The NRL point values are from its Laws of the Game with Telstra Premiership interpretations (2023 edition). Whatever the sport, the bet settles on the official result under your bookmaker's terms, and sports betting explained covers the head to head, line and other markets that sit beside the total.
Team totals and player totals
A team total is an over under on one side's score. The game total and the line together give each team's expected score:
- favourite's expected score = (total + points start) / 2
- outsider's expected score = (total - points start) / 2
With the illustrative total of 46.5 and Team A at -7.5, Team A projects to (46.5 + 7.5) / 2 = 27 points and Team B to (46.5 - 7.5) / 2 = 19.5. The two add back to the total, 27 + 19.5 = 46.5, and differ by the line, 27 - 19.5 = 7.5. A team total well away from those numbers means one of the three markets disagrees with the other two, so look again before you bet it.
A player total is the same bet on one player's count, such as disposals, points or shots, settled on the official statistics. Player totals usually carry a wider margin than game totals, and a player who never takes the field raises a rule question of its own; player props betting covers both.
Why totals move with weather, injuries and team news
A total is the market's estimate of how much both teams will score, so anything that changes how many scoring chances there will be, or how many get finished, moves it:
| What changes | Why it moves the total | Usual direction |
|---|---|---|
| Rain, or strong wind | Handling, kicking and shooting all get harder | Down |
| A key scorer or playmaker ruled out | Fewer chances made or finished by that side | Down |
| A key defender ruled out | The other side scores more easily | Up |
| Rested players or late changes | A side's usual style and combinations change | Either way |
| Money from punters who disagree with the number | The bookmaker moves the number to manage its risk | Towards the money |
Once you have a bet, its number is fixed. Say a total opens at 46.5 and heavy rain is forecast, and by the start the market sits at 42.5 (illustrative numbers). An over taken early still needs 47 points, where a new over needs only 43; an under taken early wins on anything up to 46, where a new under at 42.5 wins only up to 42. Comparing the number you took with where the market closed is the idea behind closing line value.
Team lists and late changes land in the days and hours before the start, and that is the only window you have. Once the game begins, the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (s 10B and s 8A(3)) rules out an online bet on it with an Australian provider. News that breaks after the start cannot change a bet you hold.
Extra time, shortened games and retirements
One public rule book, the NSW Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules, covers the sports bookmakers NSW authorises, and it settles these cases as below. A bookmaker licensed in another state or territory writes its own rules.
- Extra time counts unless agreed otherwise (clause 5.1.2). It can only add to a total. An illustrative rugby league game at 22-all after 80 minutes, 44 points, that ends 26 to 22 with a golden point try finishes on 48, so an under 46.5 bet loses if golden point counts.
- Soccer totals stop at the final whistle of normal time (clause 5.2.7.3): goals in extra time and in a shootout are not counted.
- A soccer match called off with no official result voids every bet not yet decided, so an over 2.5 goals bet already won at 3 goals stands (clause 5.2.7.1). If an official result is declared instead, every goals-based bet is void (clause 5.2.7.2).
- In one-day and T20 cricket, a team's innings total stands even if rain shortens the innings, unless the match is abandoned with no official result (clause 5.2.2.3(g)).
- In tennis, single bets are void when a player retires or withdraws once the match is under way (clause 5.2.8.3). Other rule types let a total stand if it was already decided when the player retired.
Where totals bets go wrong
| Mistake | Cost (illustrative numbers) | Fix |
|---|---|---|
| Assuming extra time counts in soccer | A game 1-1 after 90 minutes and 2-1 after extra time has 2 goals in normal time, so over 2.5 loses under the NSW rule book | Check what period the market settles on |
| Treating the opening number as the current one | An over taken at 46.5 needs 47 points even after the market falls to 42.5 | Check the number you hold against the current one |
| Forgetting that extra time only adds points | The golden point try above turns an under winner into a loser | Read the extra time rule before betting an under |
| Thinking a whole-number total protects a near miss | A total of 46 refunds only an exact 46; 45 still loses the over | Know which single total pushes |
| Judging two overs on price alone | Over 44.5 at $1.80 and over 46.5 at $1.95 split on a total of 45 or 46, which wins the first and loses the second | Line up the numbers before the prices |
When to skip the total
- Your view is about the result. A total pays the same whoever wins, so the head to head or the line is the market for that view.
- Your view is about one side. A team total settles on that team's score alone, while a game total also needs the other side to score what you expect.
- The period does not fit your view. Under the NSW rule book a soccer total stops at the end of normal time, so goals you expect in extra time do not count.
Totals at different bookmakers
Bookmakers can set different numbers for the same game, and which one is better depends on your side. With illustrative markets, Bookmaker A has the total at 46.5, Bookmaker B at 45.5 and Bookmaker C at 47.5. For the over, the lowest number is the friendliest, so a total of 46 wins at B and loses at A and C; for the under, the highest number is, so 47 wins at C only. Price comes second: compare it only between bets on the same number.
B337's Terminal shows each game's totals next to its head to head and line markets, each bookmaker in its own column, and it picks out the best available price on each selection. The Terminal draws on 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports, plus Betfair back and lay, although not every bookmaker prices every game. Its prices update on a repeating cycle and can lag the bookmaker's site, so confirm the number and the price in your account before you bet. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds. Bookmaker names are trade marks of their owners. B337 is not affiliated with them.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Getting a better number makes a total easier to win, not certain, and the number or price can move before your bet is accepted. See responsible gambling for limits and support.