Pick'em betting is a player-stat bet: you choose more or less on several projections, such as a midfielder's disposals, and the entry pays a posted multiplier of your stake if every pick lands. A partial-payout entry also pays a smaller multiplier when one or two picks miss. If each pick were an independent 50/50, three picks would all land one time in eight, so a fair three-pick multiplier is 8x; any posted multiplier below that is the operator's margin.
The name is also written pick em or pick 'em. On a game, pick'em has a second meaning, a line of zero where neither side is favoured, which PK in betting explains. The more-or-less product is built on player props, one of the market types the sports betting explained hub maps.
More or less picks: how an entry works
An entry is built in four steps:
- Choose two or more projections, each a number for one player's statistic in one game, such as 24.5 disposals, 0.5 tries or 21.5 points.
- Pick more or less on each: more than 24.5 disposals needs 25 or more, less needs 24 or fewer.
- Choose the entry type: all picks must land, or a partial-payout entry that also pays something when one or two miss.
- Set your stake. The multiplier for that number of picks and that entry type gives the return, stake included.
With illustrative projections and an illustrative 6x multiplier for three picks that must all land:
| Pick | Projection | Your pick | Result | Landed? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A, AFL disposals | 24.5 | More | 27 | Yes |
| Player B, NRL tries | 0.5 | Less | 0 | Yes |
| Player C, NBA points | 21.5 | More | 19 | No |
One miss sinks an all-picks entry, so this $10 entry returns nothing. Had Player C scored 22, it would have returned $10 x 6 = $60. The shape is close to a multi of player over/unders, except that the price is a fixed multiplier for the number of picks rather than the picks' own prices multiplied together.
The multiplier maths: why three picks should pay 8x
Treat every pick as an independent 50/50 for a moment. One pick lands half the time, two land together a quarter of the time (0.5 x 0.5), and n picks land together one time in 2 to the power n. A fair multiplier pays back exactly that chance, so it is 2 to the power n: 4x for two picks, 8x for three, 16x for four.
Any posted multiplier below the fair one is the margin. With illustrative multipliers, not any product's current table:
| Picks | All land, at 50/50 each | Fair multiplier | Illustrative multiplier | Return per $1 at 50/50 | Break-even chance per pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 in 4 | 4x | 3.25x | 3.25 / 4 = 81.3 cents | 55.5% |
| 3 | 1 in 8 | 8x | 6x | 6 / 8 = 75.0 cents | 55.0% |
| 4 | 1 in 16 | 16x | 10.5x | 10.5 / 16 = 65.6 cents | 55.6% |
| 5 | 1 in 32 | 32x | 19x | 19 / 32 = 59.4 cents | 55.5% |
| 6 | 1 in 64 | 64x | 34x | 34 / 64 = 53.1 cents | 55.6% |
A $10 three-pick entry at 6x returns $60 one time in eight, which averages $60 / 8 = $7.50, a cost of $2.50 per entry. The margin also grows with every pick added, from about 19 cents in the dollar on two picks to about 47 on six in this table.
The last column is the chance each pick needs for the entry to break even: break-even chance = (1 / multiplier) to the power 1 / number of picks. For three picks at 6x, 0.550 x 0.550 x 0.550 = 0.166, and 0.166 x 6 is about 1, the stake back.
Every row lands near 55%, not the 50% a coin flip would give. Compare that with a multi: three player over/unders at $1.86 each, from different games, multiply to 1.86 x 1.86 x 1.86 = 6.43 where your bookmaker lets you combine them. Multi bets explained covers how multis compound their legs' margins, and bookmaker margin shows how to measure one.
Why picks are not coin flips
A projection is the operator's estimate of the middle of a player's range, and calling more and less a 50/50 holds only if that estimate is right and the statistic is spread evenly around it. Neither can be taken for granted. The operator chooses which projections to post and where to set them, and a projection can be out of date the moment team news changes a player's role.
Low counts break the 50/50 idea outright. On a projection of 0.5 tries, more means scoring a try and less means not scoring one: if the player scores in 35% of games like this one (illustrative), more is a 35% chance and less is 65%. Most picks sit somewhere between, and a strong pick does not rescue a weak one. With illustrative chances of 60%, 52% and 45% on three picks at 6x:
| Step | Working | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Chance all three land | 0.60 x 0.52 x 0.45 | 0.1404, about 14.0% |
| Average return per $1 at 6x | 0.1404 x 6 | 84.2 cents |
That is still below the stake on average, and your own estimate of each chance is uncertain too. The player props guide explains how prop lines are set, which is where a projection's number comes from.
Risk: Betting involves risk. The 55% break-even in the table is a hurdle every pick has to clear, picks you rate above it can still lose, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Picks from the same game move together
Picks from one game are often linked. If a team dominates possession, more on two of its midfielders' disposals tends to land together; in a blowout, the losing side's scorers can all fall short at once. A fixed multiplier ignores those links, because it pays the same for any two picks.
With two illustrative picks that are each a fair 50/50, at 3.25x for two picks:
| How the two picks are linked | Chance both land | Return per $1 at 3.25x |
|---|---|---|
| Not at all | 0.50 x 0.50 = 25% | 0.25 x 3.25 = 81.3 cents |
| They tend to land together | 30% (illustrative) | 0.30 x 3.25 = 97.5 cents |
| They tend to work against each other | 20% (illustrative) | 0.20 x 3.25 = 65.0 cents |
Linked picks change the chance in either direction, and an operator can write terms that limit how picks are combined. A same game multi deals with the same problem the other way, by pricing the combination as one bet, which same game multi odds works through.
Partial payouts and void picks
A partial-payout entry pays on fewer than all picks, for a lower top multiplier. Take an illustrative five-pick entry paying 10x for 5 of 5, 2x for 4 of 5 and 0.4x for 3 of 5. Five independent 50/50 picks can land in 32 equally likely ways: 1 way to get all five, 5 ways to get four and 10 ways to get three.
The average return per $1 is (1 x 10 + 5 x 2 + 10 x 0.4) / 32 = 24 / 32 = 75 cents. On a $10 entry, half of all outcomes return something, but 3 of 5 returns $4, still a $6 loss.
When a player does not take the field, the product's terms decide what happens to that pick. The common rule types:
| Rule type | What happens to a $10 three-pick entry at 6x when one player is out |
|---|---|
| The pick drops out | The entry becomes two picks at the two-pick multiplier: $10 x 3.25 = $32.50 if both land |
| The entry is refunded | $10 comes back |
| The pick counts as a loss | An all-picks entry is lost before the game starts |
Two more rule types to look for: an entry left with fewer picks than the product's minimum may be refunded, and a result that lands exactly on a whole-number projection may be treated like a void. A game postponed or abandoned raises the same question for every pick on it. Player did not play rules sets out the participation rule types across sports. Check your bookmaker's terms for each case before you enter, because the rule is theirs.
Pick'em in Australia
Under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001, an online bet on a sporting event has to be placed before the event begins (s 10B and s 8A(3)), with a provider that holds a state or territory licence (s 15AA). Those rules apply to a pick'em entry on a game as they do to any other sports bet, so an entry can only include games that have not yet started. To check a provider, search for it by trading name on ACMA's register of licensed wagering providers. This is general information, and B337 does not give legal advice.
A pick'em app that is not on that register is not licensed to offer betting in Australia. ACMA warns that an illegal operator may never pay out, may vanish with its customers' money, and leaves them with no Australian regulator to turn to.
As at October 2026, Dabble's pick'em is one bookmaker's own version of this kind of product. Check the provider on the register like any other, and read its multipliers, entry types and void rules in its own terms: the multipliers in the worked tables are illustrative, not Dabble's. Bookmaker names are trade marks of their owners. B337 is not affiliated with them.
Mistakes with pick'em entries
| Mistake | What it costs (illustrative numbers) | The fix |
|---|---|---|
| Treating each pick as an even call | Three independent 50/50 picks at 6x return 75 cents per $1 on average | Rate each pick against the 55% break-even, not 50% |
| Adding picks for a bigger multiplier | The table's margin grows from about 19 cents in the dollar on two picks to about 47 on six | Use the fewest picks that express your view |
| Assuming a late out refunds the entry | Under a counts-as-a-loss rule, a $10 all-picks entry is gone before the start | Read the void rule before you enter |
| Stacking picks from one game | Linked picks can cut the chance both land from 25% to 20% | Know how your picks move together |
| Reading a partial payout as a win | 3 of 5 at 0.4x returns $4 on a $10 entry | Count the return against the stake |
| Entering again after a miss with more picks | The six-pick row returns 53.1 cents per $1 at 50/50, the worst in the table | Keep to the stake you planned, and stop if you are chasing a loss |