Pick your own line betting means taking a line or total other than the bookmaker's main one, at the price that goes with it. Ask your team to give fewer points and the price shortens; ask it to give more and the price lengthens. The market also goes by alternate or alternative lines, and its totals version by pick your own total.
Every alternate price is built off the main line, and the further you move from it, the more margin the price tends to carry. Buying points is the US name for the same trade, and whether a move is worth its price depends on how often games finish on the numbers you cross.
How a pick your own line market works
One game is listed at many starts, each settled like a main line bet: apply the start to the final score and see who is ahead. With illustrative prices for an AFL game, the main line is Team A -18.5 at $1.90. Here is $50 at four numbers on offer, settled on a Team A win by 16:
| Line on Team A | Price | Needs Team A to win by | Team A by 16: $50 returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | $1.51 | 7 or more | $75.50 |
| -12.5 | $1.68 | 13 or more | $84.00 |
| -18.5 (main line) | $1.90 | 19 or more | $0 |
| -24.5 | $2.15 | 25 or more | $0 |
Return = stake x price, so $50 x 1.51 = $75.50 and $50 x 1.68 = $84.00. Team B at the same number with a plus sign wins whenever Team A's side loses.
Pick your own total works the same way on the combined score. With an illustrative main AFL total of 168.5 at $1.90 each way, near the 168.2-point average of AFL home-and-away games in 2021 to 2026, over 158.5 might be $1.50 and over 178.5 $2.55.
How prices step away from the main line
To price an alternate line, a bookmaker needs a view of how widely margins spread, then a margin on top. This ladder assumes, for illustration only, that Team A's margin follows a bell curve centred on 18.5 points with a standard deviation of 39, and steps the line 6 points at a time. Each line's chance is the share of that curve above it, and the prices are illustrative:
| Team A line | Model chance Team A covers | Team A price | Team B price, same number | Book (1 / A + 1 / B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | 62.1% | $1.51 | $2.47 | 106.7% |
| -12.5 | 56.1% | $1.68 | $2.15 | 106.0% |
| -18.5 | 50.0% | $1.90 | $1.90 | 105.3% |
| -24.5 | 43.9% | $2.15 | $1.68 | 106.0% |
| -30.5 | 37.9% | $2.47 | $1.51 | 106.7% |
| -36.5 | 32.2% | $2.88 | $1.37 | 107.7% |
| -42.5 | 26.9% | $3.43 | $1.26 | 108.5% |
Eighteen points out, the book is 1 / 2.88 + 1 / 1.37 = 34.7% + 73.0% = 107.7%. On the model's rounded chances, $100 on the main line returns 100 x 1.90 x 0.500 = $95.00 on average, and $100 on -36.5 returns 100 x 2.88 x 0.322 = $92.74.
One reason for the wider margin: a bookmaker can be fairly sure of the middle of a margin curve and far less sure of its edges, so prices far from the main line carry a bigger cushion. Bookmaker margin shows how to measure the margin on any two-way market.
Buying points: the US name for the same trade
In the US, paying a lower price to move a line in your favour, a half point or more at a time, is called buying points. In American odds, -110 is 1 + 100 / 110 = $1.91 in decimal and -120 is 1 + 100 / 120 = $1.83. In Australia the same trade is a different line on the pick your own line list.
Take an NFL game at -3.5 for $1.91 and the bought line, -3, at $1.83, with $100 on either (illustrative prices):
| Final margin for Team A | -3.5 at $1.91 | -3 at $1.83 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins by 4 or more | Returns $191 | Returns $183 |
| Wins by exactly 3 | Loses $100 | Push: $100 back |
| Wins by 1 or 2, ties or loses | Loses $100 | Loses $100 |
The half point costs $191 - $183 = $8 on every win and saves $100 on every 3-point win, so it pays only if the chance of exactly 3 is at least 8 / 100 of the chance of winning. If Team A covers -3.5 half the time, that is 0.08 x 50% = 4.0%.
Example: Illustrative chances: Team A covers -3.5 half the time and wins by exactly 3 in 7.3% of games. Per $100, -3.5 at $1.91 averages 0.500 x 191 - 100 = -$4.50, and -3 at $1.83 averages 0.500 x 183 + 0.073 x 100 - 100 = -$1.20. The same $8 cut from -5.5 to -5, where the push chance is 4.3% / 2 = 2.2% on the counts below, averages 0.500 x 183 + 0.022 x 100 - 100 = -$6.30: worse than not buying.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A bought half point only changes which result pushes: the bet still loses on every smaller margin, the chances here are rough estimates drawn from past seasons, and past results are no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
What a half point is worth: NFL margins against AFL margins
A half point is worth the chance of the exact margin it crosses. In the 1,359 NFL regular-season games of 2021 to 2025, 3 points separated the teams in 199 (14.6%), 7 points in 105 (7.7%) and 5 points in 59 (4.3%), counts that NFL key numbers tabulates in full, with the worth of a half point at each.
AFL scoring, 6 points for a goal and 1 for a behind, spreads margins far more evenly. In the AFL's published results for the 1,224 home-and-away games of 2021 to 2026, the most common margin was 1 point, in 36 games (2.9%). No margin from 1 to 20 reached 3%, and 15 points came up in 17 games (1.4%).
For a rough one-sided figure, halve each share, since either team can win by that margin. From a fair $2.00 line that covers half the time, the half point keeps that 50% chance of a win and adds a push that returns the stake, so fair price = (1 - push chance) / 0.5.
| Half point (one side, rough model) | Chance it turns a loss into a push | Fair price before and after |
|---|---|---|
| NFL, -3.5 to -3 | 14.6% / 2 = 7.3% | $2.00 to $1.85 |
| AFL, -15.5 to -15 | 1.4% / 2 = 0.7% | $2.00 to $1.99 |
So a ladder priced from real margins steps furthest across 3 or 7 in the NFL, and barely at all for any single AFL point. Halving the all-games share understates a game priced near the number, so treat the NFL figure as a floor. In the AFL, the same $8 cut that bought the NFL half point turns -$4.50 into 0.500 x 183 + 0.007 x 100 - 100 = -$7.80 per $100.
Whole-number lines, pushes and half points
A line set on a whole number can finish exactly on the margin, and the usual rule type then hands the stake back: a push. A line ending in .5 cannot, the reason a half-point line exists.
The NSW Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules, for bookmakers NSW authorises to take sports bets, set a points start at half a point and count extra time on a line, unless the bookmaker and customer agree otherwise (clause 5.1.3). Bookmakers that do not bet under those rules set their own terms, so find how yours settles a whole number before you move onto one.
Alternate lines in middles, and why most still lose
A middle backs both sides of one game at numbers that leave a gap, so both bets win if the margin lands inside it. An alternate line can open a gap, but you pay its extra margin on every result. Using the illustrative ladder prices above, say Bookmaker A has Team A -18.5 at $1.90 and Bookmaker B's list has Team B +24.5 at $1.68, with $100 on each:
| Team A's margin | Team A -18.5 at $1.90 | Team B +24.5 at $1.68 | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 or more | Wins $90 | Loses $100 | -$10 |
| 19 to 24 | Wins $90 | Wins $68 | +$158 |
| 18 or fewer, a draw or a Team B win | Loses $100 | Wins $68 | -$32 |
On the ladder model's rounded chances, 43.9% for 25 or more, 6.1% for 19 to 24 and 50.0% for 18 or fewer, the pair averages 0.061 x 158 - 0.439 x 10 - 0.500 x 32 = -$10.75 per $200 staked. Middle betting in Australia shows how to work out the hit rate a middle needs from its two prices.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A middle loses on most results by design, and a middle is not an arbitrage. An arbitrage or a middle only works if every bet is accepted at the price shown, and a bookmaker can cap your stake, void a bet or close an account under its terms. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Where alternate lines are offered, and the mistakes they invite
Availability varies by bookmaker and by sport: one bookmaker may list a long ladder on a game while another shows only the main line. The idea also goes by other names from sport to sport, such as alternative Asian handicaps in soccer and game handicaps at several numbers in tennis. Online, the whole list shuts at the start of play: the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 permits an online sports bet only before an event begins (s 8A(3) and s 10B).
| Mistake | What it costs, on this page's illustrative numbers | Fix |
|---|---|---|
| Treating a shorter line as safer value | -6.5 at $1.51 returns 100 x 1.51 x 0.621 = $93.77 per $100 on average, against $95.00 at the main line | Compare expected return, not strike rate |
| Paying an NFL-style price for an AFL half point | -$7.80 per $100 instead of -$4.50 | Price the margin you are buying across |
| Building a middle from an alternate line | About -$10.75 per $200 staked in the example | Check the hit rate the gap needs first |
Skip the alternate when your only view is that a team wins: the head to head prices that directly, as sports betting explained sets out.
Checking the main line before you move off it
Before paying for an alternate, check whether another bookmaker already offers your number as its main line, where it may carry less margin.
B337's Terminal shows prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports. On its sports board, bookmakers sit in columns on head to head, line and total markets, with the best available price on each selection highlighted, and not every bookmaker prices every game. Prices are refreshed in cycles and can trail the bookmaker's, so confirm in your account. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Finding a better number lifts the payout on a winning bet but cannot make a losing one win, and the chances worked on this page are rough estimates. See responsible gambling for limits and support.