How to read a speed map in horse racing and price the pace

A speed map in horse racing is a forecast of each runner's early position, from the leader back to the last horse, and of the pace that order will produce. A lone leader tends to get a slow or muddling race that suits it; two or more pushing for the front tend to make a genuine pace that suits runners from behind.

You draw one from today's barriers and the 800m positions in each runner's recent past-start lines, which how to read a form guide teaches you to find. A map can be wrong, so the worked race below puts a chance on each pace shape and prices the runners under both.

The four early positions on a speed map

The spot on the rail just behind the leader is the box seat. It saves ground and gets cover, but a runner there needs room to get out when the speed lifts, and a leader that holds the rail can keep it in.

Reading settling positions from the form guide

Each past-start line in Racing Australia's form prints where the horse was at the 800m and the 400m, such as 3rd@800m, 2nd@400m. The 800m position is the earliest marker it gives, and it means different things at different trips:

Use runs at similar trips, and read each position against its field: divide the position by the number of runners. 3rd of 12 is 3 / 12 = 0.25, but 3rd of 6 is 3 / 6 = 0.50. Average the last three such runs into one figure, and set aside a run with a clear excuse, such as a slow start in the stewards' report. These bands keep your maps consistent from race to race; they are a working tool, not an official measure:

The figure says how a horse likes to race, and the barrier says how hard that will be today. A leader drawn wide has to cross the field before the first turn, spending energy if anything inside it has speed, while an on-pace type drawn inside can take the box seat cheaply. The barrier draw covers how to measure what a draw costs at each track.

Worked speed map for a hypothetical 10-runner race

Runner 2's working: (1/11 + 1/10 + 2/12) / 3 = (0.091 + 0.100 + 0.167) / 3 = 0.12. The other rows follow the same sum.

The two leaders, Runners 2 and 8, are drawn side by side out wide, so both have to cross Runner 5, on pace from barrier 2, and Runner 1, on pace from barrier 4. The most likely shape, front to back:

Genuine or muddling: forecasting the pace

The pace call is the map's main output. A genuine pace means the early sections are run quickly and evenly, the field strings out, and runners that saved energy behind the leaders get their chance late. A muddling pace means a slow, stop-start early section, a bunched field and a sprint home that suits whoever is in front.

This race has two leaders that must both cross runners with early speed, so you might give a genuine pace a 65% chance and a muddling one 35% (illustrative judgements). Test calls like this after the race. For a 1200m race, race time minus the last 600m gives the first 600m, and sectional times shows how to judge it against other races at the same track.

How pace changes on-pace and off-pace chances

A pace call changes prices only once you put chances on each shape. Give a runner one chance if the pace is genuine and another if it is muddling, then blend them:

blended chance = chance of a genuine pace x chance if genuine + chance of a muddling pace x chance if muddling

With illustrative judgements for three runners from the map (the other seven runners take the rest of each column):

Now say Runner 8 is scratched on race morning. Runner 2 can cross without a fight, so you cut the chance of a genuine pace to 25%:

This ignores the small lift every runner gets from having one fewer rival; scale the field back to 100% if you want it exact. The leader's chance moves most in percentage points, up 4.8 against 3.2 down for the backmarker, because its two chances (10% and 22%) are furthest apart. The box-seat runner barely moves because it suits either shape. Compare the market's prices after the scratching with your new figures, not your old ones.

Speed maps versus bias on the day

A bias changes what each spot on your map is worth, not where the runners go. If the early races go to leaders on the rail, the on-pace runners on your map deserve a little more; if winners come wide and late, the backmarkers do. In the worked race, a slow strip nearest the rail would turn the box seat, which suited Runner 5 under either pace, into a place to be stuck on the worst ground. Runner 10, one or two wide in midfield, would move up your list.

Before you move any price, test whether the day's results are a pattern at all with the count in track bias.

Where speed maps go wrong

Lean on a map least when its inputs are thin: debutants with no past positions, horses back from a spell or changing trip sharply, or a field where nobody has led lately.

Build the final map once the field is settled, because one leader scratched can change the whole shape. Under Racing NSW's Local Rule 36A, notice of a scratching is due before 7:30 am on race morning for a day meeting, or 10:00 am for a night meeting, unless the Stewards allow a later one.

Before you price from a map, run two checks. First, has any runner been placed by its barrier alone? Runner 8, drawn 9, would sit near the back of a barrier-only map, yet it was first at the 800m in two of its last three starts. Second, have you priced every shape, not just the likeliest? In the worked race a genuine pace was only 65% likely, and one scratching moved Runner 2's fair price from $7.04 to $5.26.

After the race, grade the map. Racing Australia's form adds each runner's 800m and 400m positions to its past-start lines, and Racing Queensland publishes position maps built from GPS data for each horse at Queensland meetings (checked 7 October 2026). Keep a tally of how often your mapped leader actually led: if it falls well short of what you expected, your figures are overrating early speed.

Where B337 fits

Mapping a race is your job: B337 compares prices rather than reading form, and it has no ratings engine, no model and no selections. What the Terminal adds is the market side. Each bookmaker gets its own column, 40+ across racing and sports, next to Betfair back and lay, and the flucs (price history) beside each price show how a race was repriced after a leader was scratched.

Prices on the board are captured in cycles rather than continuously, and some bookmakers skip some races, so check the live price with your bookmaker before you bet.

A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds. Betfair is a trade mark of its owner, and B337 is not affiliated with it. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.