An NRL same game multi (SGM) is one ticket of legs from a single match, and every leg has to win. In rugby league those legs share the same tries, so a winger's try also moves his team's margin and the total, and bookmakers price the ticket as a whole instead of multiplying the legs.
Every rate and count below is measured from the NRL's match centre records on nrl.com, covering all 426 Telstra Premiership matches of the 2025 and 2026 seasons, finals included. The general maths is in how same game multi odds are calculated, and the other rugby league markets are in NRL betting.
Why NRL legs move together: tries are shared out
A team scored 4.1 tries a match on average across the 426 matches, and its wingers' chances of scoring climbed with that count:
| Team's tries in the match | Team games | Winger scored 1+ | Winger scored 2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 2 | 204 | 22.1% | 1.5% |
| 3 or 4 | 320 | 46.7% | 10.6% |
| 5 or 6 | 221 | 54.8% | 22.9% |
| 7 or more | 107 | 71.5% | 38.3% |
A big winning margin needs tries, and so does a high total, so the line, the total and the try scorer legs are three views of one thing: how many tries each team scores.
Try scorer base rates by position, in wins and losses
Each try scorer leg starts from a base rate for the player's starting position, counting players who took the field:
| Position | Scored, all games | In team wins | In team losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winger | 46.0% | 55.4% | 36.7% |
| Centre | 31.5% | 37.8% | 25.2% |
| Fullback | 31.0% | 39.3% | 22.8% |
| Second row | 21.0% | 26.8% | 14.9% |
| Prop | 7.9% | 10.7% | 5.1% |
Wingers and centres finish about half of all tries (49.9%), so theirs are the short-priced legs, while a prop scores in fewer than one game in 12.
The result moves all of them. A winger was 1.5 times as likely to score in a win as in a loss (55.4 / 36.7 = 1.51). A prop was about twice as likely, from a much lower base: 91 of 850 games in wins against 43 of 850 in losses, 91 / 43 = 2.12.
Two or more tries is where the result bites hardest: wingers managed it in 22.5% of wins and 7.8% of losses. NRL try scorer betting has the table for every position, with first try shares.
NRL pairs that move together
Two legs landed together this often in the 426 matches, set against their separate rates multiplied. A ratio above 1 means more often than independent legs, and each ratio is worked from the unrounded counts:
| Pair in one match | Landed together | Separate rates multiplied | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| A winger scores and his team wins by 7 or more | 20.4% | 46.0% x 34.2% = 15.7% | 1.30 |
| A centre scores and his team wins by 7 or more | 14.2% | 31.5% x 34.2% = 10.8% | 1.32 |
| Two opposing wingers both score and the total goes over 46.5 | 13.1% | 46.0% x 46.0% x 47.9% = 10.1% | 1.30 |
Winning by 7 or more covers a -6.5 line, so the first two rows are a winger or a centre with his team's line. Each pair won together about 30% more often than multiplying suggests, and a bookmaker pricing the SGM builds that in.
NRL pairs that pull against each other
Worked the same way, these pairs landed together less often than independent legs:
| Pair in one match | Landed together | Separate rates multiplied | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| A team loses and its winger scores 2+ | 3.9% | 49.9% x 15.1% = 7.5% | 0.51 |
| Two opposing wingers both score and the total stays under 40.5 | 4.9% | 46.0% x 46.0% x 36.2% = 7.7% | 0.64 |
The first row is the shape of an underdog's win with the favourite's 2+ try scorer: if the underdog wins, the favourite has lost, and its wingers' doubles become far rarer. The second is a low total with several try scorers: under 40.5 points caps how many tries the match can hold.
For these pairs the combination's fair price sits above the legs multiplied, but only because the chance of every leg landing has fallen: 3.9% instead of 7.5% in the first row.
Worked example: a winger's try with his team's line
Example: Illustrative prices, not a current market. Team A is -6.5 at $1.90 and its winger is $2.10 to score at any time. Multiplied, the two legs pay 1.90 x 2.10 = $3.99. The bookmaker offers the pair as an SGM at $3.40.
To judge $3.40 you need the chance that both legs win. Say that after taking the margin out you rate Team A at 50% to cover -6.5 and the winger at 45% to score. Multiplying those as if they were independent gives 0.50 x 0.45 = 22.5%, a fair $4.44.
The data says they are not independent. Wingers scored in 59.6% of games their team won by 7 or more and in 38.9% of the rest, a gap of 20.7 percentage points.
Spread that gap either side of this winger's 45%, and he scores 45% + 10.35% = 55.35% of the time if Team A covers and 45% - 10.35% = 34.65% if it does not. So the joint chance = 0.50 x 0.5535 = 0.27675, about 27.7%, and the fair SGM price is 1 / 0.27675 = $3.61.
| Price for the pair | Where it comes from | Average return per $1 at a 27.7% chance |
|---|---|---|
| $3.99 | The bookmaker's legs multiplied | 0.27675 x 3.99 = $1.10 |
| $3.61 | Fair SGM price on these estimates | 0.27675 x 3.61 = $1.00 |
| $3.40 | The bookmaker's SGM price | 0.27675 x 3.40 = $0.94 |
The SGM price is about 15% below the multiplied legs (3.40 / 3.99 = 0.852) and about 6% below the fair $3.61: that 6% is the margin you pay. Priced as the legs multiplied, the pair would be worth about $1.10 per $1 staked on average over many such bets, which is why SGMs are priced for correlation.
Treat the 20.7-point gap as an upper guide. It mixes two effects: within one game, a bigger winning margin needs more tries, and across games, stronger teams both cover more often and score more tries. A bookmaker pricing one game cares about the first, so the true joint chance for a single match can sit below 27.7%.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Your joint chance is an estimate, an SGM loses if any single leg fails, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
How an NRL SGM is priced
Bookmakers do not publish how they price same game multis, but the outcome is visible: legs that move together are priced below their product. NRL betting strategy turns a line and total into each team's expected tries and a winger's chance of scoring, one way to estimate a try scorer leg from the same two markets.
Each extra leg also brings its own margin, which same game multi strategy costs for short and long tickets. Bookmakers can refuse or limit combinations whose legs are too closely tied, and each models the links its own way, so one SGM can be priced differently at different bookmakers.
Golden point legs
When an NRL match is level at 80 minutes, the NRL's premiership interpretations send it to extra time. In the regular season that is golden point for up to 10 minutes and then a draw; in the finals, 10 minutes of full extra time and then golden point. Each SGM leg follows its own market's rule on extra time, so one golden point score can settle legs in opposite directions.
Illustrative case: Team A and Team B are 16-16 after 80 minutes, and Team A's winger scores in golden point to win 20-16. Take a four-leg SGM of Team A to win, Team A -1.5, over 34.5 and the winger to score:
| Leg | Extra time counts | Settled at 80 minutes |
|---|---|---|
| Team A head to head | Wins | Turns on the draw rule in the terms |
| Team A -1.5 | Wins: margin 4 | Loses: margin 0 |
| Total over 34.5 | Wins: 36 points | Loses: 32 points |
| Winger to score | Wins | Loses: his try came in extra time |
If every leg counts extra time the SGM pays in full; if they settle at 80 minutes it loses. A draw after golden point is rare, one of the 426 matches in 2025 and 2026, and a head to head leg then follows the draw rule in the terms: void, a dead heat or a loss.
Void legs: the 18th man, late changes and unused bench players
Three NRL situations put player legs on the void rules:
- The 18th man. In 2025 each team named a replacement, the 18th man, alongside its 17. He could come on only in limited cases set by the NRL, and took the field in 5 of the 426 team games that season.
- Late changes between the team list and the final 19. Each club names an extended squad in match week. In 2026 two players were dropped from it 24 hours before kick-off and the 19 was locked in 90 minutes out, so a leg added early in the week can sit on a player who is cut.
- Bench players who never take the field. Since the 2026 rule change a bench holds six players, of whom four can be used, so in a normal game two named bench players per team sit out. About one in three named bench players never got on that season.
Terms take different approaches when the player takes no part. In one, the leg is removed and the multi is re-priced on the legs that remain. In another, the whole multi is void and the stake returned. In a third, the bet is all-in: the leg stands and loses, and the multi with it. That is the starting rule for bookmakers licensed and authorised in NSW, under clause 5.1.1 of the state's Bookmaker Declared Betting Events Betting Rules.
Once a player takes the field, even briefly, check whether the terms count that as having played, because then the leg settles on what he did. Same game multi rules works a re-priced multi through, and NRL team lists covers the selection timetable.
Mistakes in NRL same game multis
- Judging an SGM against its legs multiplied. In the worked example $3.40 is about 15% under the $3.99 product but only about 6% under the fair $3.61.
- Adding a low total to several try scorers. Two opposing wingers scoring with the total under 40.5 happened 4.9% of the time, against 7.7% if independent.
- Adding a bench player without reading the void rule. About one named bench player in three never got on in 2026, and under an all-in rule that leg loses the multi.
- Mixing a small line with a try scorer without reading the extra time rule. In the 16-16 example, one golden point try decides whether the four-leg SGM pays in full or loses.
Skip the SGM when its price implies a higher chance than your own estimate: $3.40 implies 1 / 3.40 = 29.4%, against the 27.7% in the worked example.
SGM Saver and NRL same game multis
B337's SGM Saver covers NRL, one of its four sports with AFL, NBA and soccer, at seven bookmakers. When a saver or stake-back offer is already on one of your own bookmaker accounts, it can place an NRL same game multi for that offer on a game you choose. It skips the game unless the bookmaker confirms the offer covers the multi, never creates or claims an offer, and bets only before the game starts.
SGM Saver comes with Full Automation, which is set up with the team, and the price, including any charges on top of the plan price, is confirmed before you pay. Bets placed through B337 use credits. The bot runs on your own computer and places nothing while that computer is off, asleep or offline.
Many bookmakers restrict or prohibit automated betting and third-party access to accounts in their terms, and a bookmaker can limit stakes, void bets or close an account; that risk is yours. Same game multi automation has the details.
For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A saver offer does not stop a same game multi from losing, automation can bet far more, far faster, than by hand, and there is no guarantee of profit. Set a deposit limit with each bookmaker and see responsible gambling for support.