A harness racing speed map forecasts the first lap of a race: which horse leads, which one is left parked outside it, and which ones find cover behind them. The forecast rests on each horse's draw behind the mobile and the gate speed it has shown in recent runs. Getting it right matters because the leader controls the tempo, while the parked horse travels wider than the horses inside it on every turn with nothing to sit behind.
Treat the result as a few possible shapes with a weight on each rather than one picture of the race. How starts, draws and positions fit together across the code is mapped in harness racing betting.
The two inputs: the draw and gate speed
Reading the draw on a mobile start
In a mobile start the field lines up in rows behind the mobile barrier, and the form guide shows each spot as Fr (front row) or Sr (second row) with a number. Under the Australian Harness Racing Rules, the Chief Steward decides how many start abreast in a line. Draws that do not fit go as close as practicable behind the front line (AHRR 130). Harness Racing Australia's track pages show how much that varies (checked October 2026):
| Track | Circumference | Front line, mobile start | Field limit, mobile start | Second row in a full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloucester Park (WA) | 804.5 m | 9 | 12 | 12 - 9 = 3 |
| Melton (VIC) | 1,040 m | 7 | 12 | 12 - 7 = 5 |
| Menangle (NSW) | 1,400 m | 10 | 12 | 12 - 10 = 2 |
A second-row horse's early spot depends on the horse in front of it: towed into a good position behind a leader, or locked away behind a slow beginner. What each barrier is worth at each track is covered in harness racing barrier draws.
Judging gate speed from past runs
Gate speed is how quickly a horse reaches racing pace and position once the mobile releases the field. Finishing places do not show it, because a horse can lead and still run last. The evidence is where it sat after the first 400 m or so, and from which draw: leading from barrier 6 says far more than leading from barrier 1. Replays, stewards' comments and individual sectional data, where a controlling body publishes it, supply that.
One way to score it, run by run over the last five:
| What the horse did early | Score |
|---|---|
| Led, or pushed forward to sit outside the leader, from barrier 4 or wider | 2 |
| Held a spot in the first three on the inside (any draw, not scored 2) | 1 |
| Anything else, such as midfield or the back half, from any draw | 0 |
Add the five scores for a total out of 10. Nobody publishes this scale: it is a home-made yardstick, and it only works if you score every race the same way.
The spots a speed map fills
A map has two lines: the inside line along the pegs, and the line one horse off the pegs.
| Spot | Where it is | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Leader | In front on the pegs | Sets the tempo, does its own work |
| Behind the leader on the pegs | Sheltered, but can be held in | |
| Death seat | Outside the leader | No cover, extra ground on every turn |
| One-out one-back | Behind the death-seat horse | Cover, and a run when the horse in front tires |
| Three back on the pegs | Behind the pocket horse | Sheltered, needs gaps to open |
The death seat and one-out one-back have their own entries, and what each spot costs in a race is set out in harness racing positions.
Worked speed map for a 10-horse mobile start
Example: Illustrative field, not a real race: 10 horses at a track with a seven-horse front line, so Fr1 to Fr7 and Sr1 to Sr3. Each second-row horse starts behind the front-row horse with the same number, and scores use the scale above.
| Draw | Score | Last five runs, early | Likely plan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fr1 | 6 | Inside first three four times; led once from barrier 5 | Leads if nothing crosses, else the pocket |
| Fr2 | 1 | First three once from barrier 2 | Drops in behind |
| Fr3 | 4 | Inside first three four times; never tried wide | Cover one off the pegs |
| Fr4 | 9 | Led from barriers 4, 5 and 6; parked from 7; third from 2 | Main lead contender |
| Fr5 | 1 | First three once from barrier 1 | Back of the one-out line |
| Fr6 | 7 | Forward from wide draws three times; third from barrier 3 | Burns forward or takes cover |
| Fr7 | 2 | First three twice, from barriers 1 and 2 | Near the back |
| Sr1 | 0 | Back half in all five | Follows Fr1 |
| Sr2 | 3 | First three three times from front-row draws | Stuck behind Fr2 |
| Sr3 | 0 | Back half in all five | Follows Fr3 |
Step 1: settle the lead
Fr4 has the most gate speed but must get past Fr1, Fr2 and Fr3. Fr2 should drop back and Fr3 lacks the speed to hold its line, so Fr1 is the one inside horse able to fight.
If Fr1 holds the lead, Fr4 is parked outside it. If Fr1 hands up, letting Fr4 cross and taking the sit behind it, Fr4 leads and Fr1 has the pocket. Fr6, drawn wider, burns forward into the death seat or is eased back for cover.
Step 2: fill in behind
Filled in, the likeliest order reads like this, leaders on the left:
| Line | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On the pegs | Fr4, leader | Fr1, pocket | Sr1 | Fr2 | Sr2 |
| One off the pegs | Fr6, death seat | Fr3, one-out one-back | Sr3 | Fr5 | Fr7 |
Step 3: weigh the alternatives
| Shape | What happens | Your weight (illustrative) |
|---|---|---|
| A | Fr4 crosses, Fr1 takes the pocket, Fr6 is parked | 55% |
| B | Fr1 holds the lead, Fr4 is parked, Fr6 goes back | 25% |
| C | Fr4 and Fr6 both push hard; one leads, the other is parked after a fast start | 20% |
Count Fr4 as leading in shape A and half of shape C, and as parked in shape B and the other half of C:
- chance Fr4 leads = 55% + 20% / 2 = 65%
- chance Fr4 sits in the death seat = 25% + 20% / 2 = 35%
The same horse has about a two-in-three chance of the easiest spot and about a one-in-three chance of the hardest. Carry that range into your price, not one map.
Who leads: reading the crossing contest
Three checks help settle a lead contest:
- List every horse scoring 6 or more. If there is none, expect the inside horse with the top score to find the front.
- Work outwards from barrier 1 to the strongest early horse. It leads if every inside horse either lacks the speed to hold it out or hands up; otherwise it sits parked outside the inside horse that holds.
- A wide horse with speed must get past every inside horse that also pushes. Each one that holds its line costs it ground on the first turn, and its driver may take cover instead. A second-row horse would have to come out and around the front row, which costs even more.
How the map forecasts the tempo and the finish
Lead time is the time from the start to the beginning of the last mile, so it only exists in races longer than a mile. A 1,609 m race has none to report (Harness Racing NSW's sheets show 0.00 s), so the opening quarter becomes the early-pace measure.
The map tells you which start to expect. With one clear leader (shape A), the rest settle, the leader can slow the middle of the race, and the finish becomes a sprint that suits the leader and the pocket. With a fight for the front (shape C), the lead time is fast and the leaders tend to come back to the field.
Illustrative figures for a 2,240 m race, where the lead time covers the first 631 m (2,240 - 1,609):
| Illustrative 2,240 m race | Shape A: one clear leader | Shape C: a fight for the front |
|---|---|---|
| Lead time | 46.8 s | 44.1 s |
| Average speed to the last mile | 631 / 46.8 = 13.5 m a second, about 48.5 km/h | 631 / 44.1 = 14.3 m a second, about 51.5 km/h |
| Last half, the final 800 m | 56.9 s | 60.4 s |
| Spots it tends to help | Leader and pocket | One-out one-back, the trail, horses with a run from behind |
To test the pattern on tracks you bet, take a dated set of results with lead times and split each track and distance at its middle lead time. Then count how often the horse leading with a lap to go won in each half. A handful of races proves nothing. How the lead time, quarters and last half fit together is covered in harness racing sectional times.
When the map is wrong on the day
| What changes | Effect on the map | Your response |
|---|---|---|
| A late scratching | Moves who starts where; each controlling body decides how barrier positions are filled (AHRR 131) | Redraw from the final field |
| A slow beginning or a break | A horse that gallops early loses ground until its driver restores its gait | Check its record for breaking stride |
| A horse drawn outside by order | Stewards can exclude a horse that misbehaves in the score-up from the draw, so it starts outside (AHRR 134) | Judge its speed from earlier runs |
| A driver change | The new driver may push forward or sit back | Map it both ways |
| A standing start | Handicap marks and no mobile make early spots far less predictable | Widen your alternatives; see mobile vs standing starts |
Checking your map after the race
Harness Racing NSW's sectional reports show each runner's distance from the leader, and how many wide it was, at the 800 m and 400 m marks, which is enough to grade a map. From race 8 at Menangle on 3 October 2026, a 1,609 m race with a 26.80 s first quarter:
| At the 800 m, per the report | The spot that describes | Finished |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 m, on the pegs | Leader | 7th |
| 3.8 m, one wide | Death seat | 5th |
| 4.0 m, on the pegs | 2nd, beaten 0.8 m | |
| 8.2 m, one wide | One-out line, behind the death-seat horse | 1st |
One race says nothing about a spot in general; the habit is the point. Write down your predicted leader and death-seat horse before each race, check them against the report, and over many maps you will start to see which inputs you rate too highly. The map also covers only the first lap: a leader can hand up later, and a three-wide move can give the death-seat horse cover.
Using a speed map when you bet
The map feeds your view of each horse's chance; it is not a bet in itself. Turning it into a price is worked through in harness racing betting strategy. The market sees the same draws and form, so the question is whether the price already assumes your map. Three mistakes spoil a harness map:
- Mapping from the barrier number alone, so a quick beginner drawn wide goes to the back and a slow horse drawn inside is handed a lead it will give up.
- Placing a second-row horse on its own speed, when its early spot depends on the front-row horse it follows.
- Pricing only shape A: in the worked example, Fr4 still had a 35% chance of the death seat.
B337 does not draw speed maps, rate horses or pick runners: it compares prices, and harness meetings sit on the Terminal's racing board beside thoroughbreds and greyhounds. The Terminal shows prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports, with exchange back and lay prices and price history (flucs) beside them.
Not every bookmaker prices every race, and prices are read on a repeating cycle, so confirm the price in your bookmaker account before you bet. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A speed map is a forecast that is often wrong, a horse mapped to lead can still be beaten, and a price that looks generous against your map can still lose. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au, and see responsible gambling for limits and support.