Betfair trading strategies are sets of rules for when to back, when to lay and when to get out, and the three common ones differ in how far they need a price to move. Scalping aims for a tick or two, swing trading waits for several ticks, and back-to-lay queues its exit in advance. In the worked examples, a scalp that loses two ticks when wrong needs about 67% winners after an illustrative 6% commission, while an eight-tick swing with a four-tick stop needs about 30% (hypothetical prices).
Every trade here is closed before the start. Online, a bet on a sporting event has to be placed before it begins (Interactive Gambling Act s 10B and s 8A(3)), and every racing trade on this page is closed before the jump too. Betfair trading explained covers the basic two-bet trade and the law behind it.
Ticks: the unit every strategy is counted in
Exchange prices sit on a fixed ladder, and a tick is the gap between one rung and the next. The rungs spread further apart as the price gets longer. The table shows a typical exchange price ladder, for illustration: each exchange sets its own increments, and some market types use others, so check the ladder you trade on.
| Price range | One tick | Example close, one tick lower | Profit from one tick on a $100 back |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.01 to $2.00 | 0.01 | $1.80 to $1.79 | 100 x 0.01 / 1.79 = $0.56 |
| $2.00 to $3.00 | 0.02 | $2.40 to $2.38 | 100 x 0.02 / 2.38 = $0.84 |
| $3.00 to $4.00 | 0.05 | $3.60 to $3.55 | 100 x 0.05 / 3.55 = $1.41 |
| $4.00 to $6.00 | 0.10 | $4.60 to $4.50 | 100 x 0.10 / 4.50 = $2.22 |
| $6.00 to $10.00 | 0.20 | $7.20 to $7.00 | 100 x 0.20 / 7.00 = $2.86 |
| $10.00 to $20.00 | 0.50 | $13.00 to $12.50 | 100 x 0.50 / 12.50 = $4.00 |
| $20.00 to $30.00 | 1.00 | $24.00 to $23.00 | 100 x 1.00 / 23.00 = $4.35 |
Above $30.00 the steps on that ladder are 2.00, then 5.00 from $50.00 and 10.00 from $100.00 up to $1,000. The last column is back stake x tick / closing price: what a one-tick move locks in when you close for an equal result whichever runner wins.
- A tick is worth more at longer prices, but the position behind it grows faster: until the lay is matched, a $100 back at $13.00 is a $1,200 win or a $100 loss if the race starts with it open.
- Count ticks band by band: $3.80 to $4.40 is four ticks of 0.05 plus four of 0.10, and one tick either side of $2.00 is $1.99 or $2.02.
Scalping: one or two ticks in a busy market
Scalping is taking a tick or two of profit many times over, in markets with plenty of money near the price. You offer to back at the higher of the two best prices and to lay one tick lower, or the reverse, and wait in the queue behind money already offered at those prices until someone takes yours.
Example: hypothetical prices, not a real race. A favourite shows $3.00 to back and $3.05 to lay, one tick apart, with thousands of dollars waiting at each. Your offer to back $252 at $3.05 is matched.
| How the trade closes | Closing lay | Working | Result whichever runner wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| One tick your way | $256.20 at $3.00 | 252 x 3.05 / 3.00 = 256.20 | 256.20 - 252 = +$4.20 |
| Two ticks against you, at your stop | $244.00 at $3.15 | 252 x 3.05 / 3.15 = 244.00 | 244.00 - 252 = -$8.00 |
After an illustrative 6% commission the winner keeps 4.20 x 0.94 = $3.948, about $3.95, and the loser pays none. With each scalp in a different market, each winner pays its own commission. The break-even win rate is loss / (win + loss) = 8.00 / (3.948 + 8.00) = 67.0%, about two winners in every three. Scalps repeated in one market pay commission once, on that market's net result.
It is harder than the table looks: the price often moves before the queue reaches your closing offer, leaving you holding the whole $252 back.
Scalp only where the spread is one tick, the money at the best prices is many times your stake, and you can take a fixed loss without hesitating.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A scalp's wins are small and its losses larger, the queue can leave you holding one side of a trade, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Swing trading: holding for a bigger move
Swing trading means opening a position because you expect the price to move several ticks, then holding it until it reaches your target or your stop. The move needs a reason you can name, such as late money for the runner or bookmakers shortening a price the exchange has not yet moved. Pre-race trading covers when Australian race markets carry enough money for it.
Example: hypothetical prices. You back a runner for $30 at $5.60, with a target of $4.80 (eight ticks shorter) and a stop at $6.00 (four ticks longer).
| How the trade closes | Closing lay | Working | Result whichever runner wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target reached | $35.00 at $4.80 | 30 x 5.60 / 4.80 = 35.00 | +$5.00 |
| Stop hit | $28.00 at $6.00 | 30 x 5.60 / 6.00 = 28.00 | -$2.00 |
| Stop slips two ticks | $26.25 at $6.40 | 30 x 5.60 / 6.40 = 26.25 | -$3.75 |
After an illustrative 6% commission the target keeps 5.00 x 0.94 = $4.70. The break-even win rate is 2.00 / (4.70 + 2.00) = 29.9%, or 3.75 / (4.70 + 3.75) = 44.4% if the stop slips. The slip costs more than it looks because the price crossed $6.00, where each tick widens from 0.10 to 0.20.
Swing trading needs fewer winners than scalping, but each trade stays open for longer. While the trade is open, that $30 back is a 30 x 4.60 = $138 win or a $30 loss if the race starts before you close it.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A swing trade can sit at a loss for its whole life, a stop does not fix the price you get, and a position still open at the jump is a full-sized bet. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Back-to-lay and lay-to-back setups
Back-to-lay means backing first and queuing the lay at a lower price straight away, so the exit is in the market before the price moves. Lay-to-back is the mirror: lay first, then queue a back at a longer price to catch a drift. Both are swing trades with the closing order already placed, which settles the target in advance but leaves the stop to you.
You also choose how to size the closing bet. The same stake as the opening bet puts all the profit on one result, while the equal-result stake spreads it evenly. With hypothetical prices:
| Setup | Opening bet | Closing order | If the runner wins | If it loses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back-to-lay, same stake | Back $20 at $11.00 | Lay $20 at $8.00 | 20 x 10.00 - 20 x 7.00 = +$60.00 | -20 + 20 = $0.00 |
| Back-to-lay, equal result | Back $20 at $11.00 | Lay 20 x 11.00 / 8.00 = $27.50 at $8.00 | 200 - 27.50 x 7.00 = +$7.50 | -20 + 27.50 = +$7.50 |
| Lay-to-back, equal result | Lay $45 at $2.40 | Back 45 x 2.40 / 2.50 = $43.20 at $2.50 | -63 + 43.20 x 1.50 = +$1.80 | 45 - 43.20 = +$1.80 |
From $11.00 to $8.00 is 12 ticks (two of 0.50, then 10 of 0.20), and from $2.40 to $2.50 is five ticks of 0.02.
Decide in advance to close at the market price by a set time before the jump. If the $11.00 runner has only firmed to $10.00 by then, an equal-result close is 20 x 11.00 / 10.00 = $22.00 laid, +$2.00 either way. How to green up has the closing formula for any position, including a part-matched one.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A queued closing order may never be matched, and without it the opening bet stands at its full size at the jump. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Stop losses and stake limits
A stop is a price, chosen before the opening bet, at which you close a losing trade. Trading software can place that closing bet when the price is reached; on an ordinary exchange screen you place it yourself. Read your exchange's terms on automated access before you connect any software; many bookmakers restrict automated betting in their terms.
Either way, the stop does not fix the price you get. In a fast market the closing bet is matched at the next prices with money on them, which is slippage: the swing trade's $6.00 stop, filled at $6.40, cost $3.75 instead of $2.00.
Size each trade from what its stop costs, not from the stake that feels right. With an illustrative limit of $20 lost on any one trade:
| Stake rule | Working | Largest back stake |
|---|---|---|
| Stop filled at $6.00 | the stop costs $2.00 per $30 staked: 30 x 20 / 2.00 | $300 |
| Stop slips two ticks to $6.40 | it costs $3.75 per $30 staked: 30 x 20 / 3.75 | $160 |
Set these before the first bet too:
- A cap on any one stake as a share of the money waiting at your price, for example a quarter, so your own bet does not push the price.
- A daily loss limit, after which you stop for the day. Never add to a losing trade to improve its average price.
- A deposit limit on your exchange account. The National Consumer Protection Framework requires every Australian online wagering provider to offer deposit limits: cutting yours takes effect immediately, and raising it takes effect only after 7 days.
Choosing a strategy for the market in front of you
| Scalping | Swing trading | Back-to-lay or lay-to-back | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target | One or two ticks | Several ticks | A price queued in advance |
| What the market needs | A one-tick spread and deep money | Enough money to close at your stop | A reason for the move before the jump |
| Main risk | One side matched, the other not | A stop filled well past its price | The queued order never matching |
Use scalping only in the busiest minutes of the busiest markets, a swing trade when you can say why the price should move, and a queued exit when you will not be watching as the target trades. In a thin market none of these exchange trading strategies works well, because a wide spread puts every trade several ticks behind before it starts. Every one of them rests on laying, liability and commission, which the lay betting hub explains.
Mistakes that cost traders money
With hypothetical prices:
- Scalping a wide spread. With $3.00 to back and $3.15 to lay, three ticks apart, backing $252 at $3.00 and laying straight back at $3.15 costs 252 - 252 x 3.00 / 3.15 = 252 - 240 = $12.00 before the price has moved.
- Moving the stop. Letting the swing's $6.00 stop run to $7.00 turns a $2.00 loss into 30 - 30 x 5.60 / 7.00 = 30 - 24 = $6.00.
- Counting results before commission. Two winning scalps and one loser, each in a different market, make 2 x 4.20 - 8.00 = +$0.40 before commission and 2 x 3.948 - 8.00 = -$0.10 after it.
- Raising stakes after a loss. A losing run is a reason to stop and check the method, never to bet bigger to win it back.
What B337 shows a trader, and what it does not do
Nothing in B337 places a back or a lay on the exchange: you place every bet in these strategies yourself, in your own exchange account. Its Terminal puts Betfair back and lay beside prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports, with flucs, so you can see how bookmaker prices have moved against the exchange price before you decide on a swing trade.
Because those prices are collected in cycles rather than tick by tick, use the board for context and take every price you trade from the exchange's own ladder. Bookmaker names are trade marks of their owners. B337 is not affiliated with them.
Risk: Betting involves risk. The Terminal's prices can lag the exchange's, a bookmaker move need not reach the exchange before the jump, and past results are no guarantee of future results. See responsible gambling for limits and support.