Ashes betting is betting on the Test series between Australia and England: who wins the series, its exact score, each Test, and who makes the most runs or takes the most wickets across it. If the series finishes level, the side that already holds the Ashes keeps them, so a bet on the series result and a bet on who holds the Ashes afterwards are not the same bet.
Australia hold the men's Ashes after winning the 2025-26 series 4-1, and the next men's series is five Tests in England from 18 June to 2 August 2027. The worked examples below use a made-up holder and challenger, rated level, with illustrative chances and prices that describe neither Australia nor England. Every bet is placed before the first ball of the Test or series it covers.
How an Ashes series is decided
The series goes to the side that wins more Tests. Drawn Tests count for neither side, so a five-Test series can finish level at 2-2 with one draw, 1-1 with three, or 0-0.
Level series are a live outcome. The 2019 series in England, the first drawn Ashes since 1972, and the 2023 series there both finished 2-2. Australia kept the Ashes each time as holders, according to Cricket Australia's reports of the 2019 series and the 2023 series.
Weather decided who kept the Ashes in 2023 with a Test to spare. Rain washed out the whole fifth day at Old Trafford on 23 July 2023, so the fourth Test was drawn with Australia 2-1 up and one to play (Cricket Australia, 24 July 2023). The best England could then manage was 2-2, which would leave the Ashes with the holders.
Ashes series betting: pricing the result and the drawn series
A series result market has three outcomes: the holder wins it, the challenger wins it, or it is drawn. You can price all three from your own chances for each Test.
Example: you estimate each Test at 41% holder win, 41% challenger win and 18% draw, and treat the five Tests as independent. Illustrative chances, not a forecast for 2027 or a view on either team: in a real series, form, injuries and conditions carry from one Test to the next.
A scoreline's chance is the number of orders it can happen in, times the chance of each Test result. A 2-2 series with one draw can happen in 5! / (2! x 2! x 1!) = 30 orders, so its chance is 30 x 0.41 x 0.41 x 0.41 x 0.41 x 0.18 = 0.1526, about 15.26%. Adding up all 21 scorelines:
| Series outcome | Chance | Fair price (1 / chance) |
|---|---|---|
| Holder wins the series | 41.38% | $2.42 |
| Challenger wins the series | 41.38% | $2.42 |
| Drawn series | 17.24% | $5.80 |
| Holder keeps the Ashes (a series win or a draw) | 58.62% | $1.71 |
A bet on the challenger loses on every level finish. A market on who holds the Ashes afterwards is a different bet again: the holder's side covers a series win and a drawn series together, so its fair price is $1.71 against $2.42 to win the series.
A three-way market pays the draw selection on a level series. A two-way market with no draw price must say what a level series does. It can refund the stakes, or apply a clause like the NSW betting rules' one for a draw with no price offered, which pays face value divided by the number tied (clause 5.1.8). A series bet also ties up your stake for weeks, which futures betting covers.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A fair price built from your own per-Test chances is only as good as those chances, and a series bet can lose after weeks of cricket. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Series correct score: 21 ways five Tests can finish
A correct score market prices the final score. With all five Tests played there are 21 possible scores: nine where the holder wins more Tests, nine where the challenger does, and three level ones, 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2. On the same per-Test chances, the five most likely are:
| Series score (holder first) | Chance | Fair price (1 / chance) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | 15.26% | $6.55 |
| 3-2 | 11.59% | $8.63 |
| 2-3 | 11.59% | $8.63 |
| 3-1 | 10.17% | $9.83 |
| 1-3 | 10.17% | $9.83 |
On these chances the single most likely score is 2-2, even though a drawn series is the least likely of the three results. If a Test is abandoned or cancelled, terms can settle on the series as completed or void the market, so read the series clause.
Ashes markets for each Test
Each Test also has its own three-way market, with the draw a result in its own right, bet before that Test's first ball. A drawn Test takes away a result either side needed, which is how wet weather reaches every series market. In the example, lifting the draw in every Test from 18% to 28%, with each win cut from 41% to 36%, moves the drawn series from 17.24% to 19.97%. The holder's chance of keeping the Ashes rises from 58.62% to 59.99%. Test cricket betting covers pricing the draw, first-innings markets and the follow-on.
Top series batter and top series bowler
These markets run across the whole series: the most runs, or the most wickets, from every Test. A batter can bat up to 10 times in five Tests, so fitness and selection matter as much as form. Under the NSW rules:
- Bets are all-in unless the bookmaker agrees otherwise (clause 5.1.1), so a bet on a player who misses the series stands and loses. Other terms refund a player who takes no part.
- Runs and wickets from a Test later abandoned still count towards the series tallies (clause 5.2.2.1(g)).
- A tie at the top is a dead heat, paid at face value divided by the number tied (clause 5.1.8).
Example: you rate a batter at 14% to top the series if they play every Test, a fair price of 1 / 0.14 = $7.14, but see a 20% chance they miss enough cricket to have no real chance. Under an all-in rule their chance is about 0.80 x 14% = 11.2%, a fair price of 1 / 0.112 = $8.93. Illustrative figures, not a real player.
A dead heat cuts the return too: $12 at $11.00 has a face value of $132, and level with one other batter it returns $132 / 2 = $66. Top series bowler works the same way, though terms can add a tie-break first, and top batter betting covers the single-match rules.
Weather, venues and scheduling
The ECB's fixtures for the 2027 men's series, announced on 23 July 2026:
| Test | Dates | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| First | 18 to 22 June 2027 | Trent Bridge, Nottingham |
| Second | 30 June to 4 July | Lord's, London |
| Third | 8 to 12 July | Edgbaston, Birmingham |
| Fourth | 21 to 25 July | Southampton |
| Fifth | 29 July to 2 August | The Oval, London |
Four things in a schedule like this move prices:
- The clock. England is nine hours behind the Australian east coast from June to August, so a Test that starts at 11 am in England starts at 8 pm AEST, or 6 pm in Perth. Your bet has to be accepted before then.
- Short gaps. Lord's ends on 4 July and Edgbaston starts on 8 July, and the Oval starts four days after Southampton ends, leaving three clear days each time. Back-to-back Tests can force changes to a bowling attack, which reaches top series bowler bets.
- New venues. Southampton hosts its first men's Ashes Test, so there is no Ashes record there to anchor a draw price on.
- The forecast. Rain and bad light take time out of a Test, so each Test's forecast moves its draw price and the series markets with it.
Australia and England also meet in a one-off day-night Test at the MCG from 11 March 2027 to mark 150 years of Test cricket. A one-off Test is not automatically part of an Ashes series, so check what a market on it covers.
The women's Ashes: decided on points
The women's Ashes is played across all three formats and decided on points. In 2027 it opens with a four-day Test at Headingley from 24 June, worth 4 points, followed by three T20 internationals and three ODIs worth 2 points each, 16 in all, ending on 20 July (Cricket Australia, 23 July 2026). The holder keeps the trophy on level points: the 2023 series finished 8-8 and Australia retained it. Australia hold it after a 16-0 sweep in 2024-25.
So a women's Ashes market settles on points: check what a drawn Test or a no result earns, and how your market treats a level total.
How to bet on the Ashes
- Check the bookmaker first: its trading name and website should both appear on ACMA's register of licensed wagering providers.
- Choose the market, then read its series clause: a level series, a Test abandoned or cancelled, a player who misses Tests, and ties at the top. Skip any market whose clause is silent on a level series.
- Price it before you look at the odds, as above, and use the fair odds calculator to take the margin out of a bookmaker's prices.
- Place a series bet before the first ball of the first Test, and each Test bet before that Test's first ball, allowing for the time difference.
- Set one stake limit for the whole series before it starts, and never bet to win back a loss.
Mistakes with Ashes bets
| Mistake | How much it costs here | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Backing the challenger without pricing the draw | It loses on every level series, 17.24% of outcomes | Price all three results |
| Ignoring selection risk in top series bets | Under an all-in rule a fair $7.14 becomes $8.93 | Price the chance the player plays, or wait until the squad is named |
| Expecting full payment on a tie at the top | $12 at $11.00 tied two ways returns $66, not $132 | Allow for dead heats |
Comparing Ashes Test prices
Compare like with like: a three-way Test price is not a draw no bet price. Where an Ashes Test appears on the sports board of B337's Terminal, bookmakers sit side by side in their own columns and the best available price on each selection is picked out. The price history (flucs) shows whether a price has firmed or drifted. Some bookmakers will not price a given Test, and the board collects prices on a cycle, so check the live price in your account before you place anything. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds, and the cricket betting guide covers the rest of the cricket calendar.
Risk: Betting involves risk. A five-Test series ties up a stake for weeks, a drawn series or a dead heat can cut a return, and there is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.