A horse is caught wide when it races away from the fence, outside other runners, with no horse in front of it to give it cover. It covers more ground on every turn, so a wide run can hide a better effort than the margin shows.
Caught three wide means two horses sit between it and the fence. Wide no cover, or without cover, adds that nothing is in front of it either.
Why racing wide costs ground
On a bend, each horse-width out adds that width times the angle turned, measured in radians (degrees x 3.1416 / 180). With a horse-width taken as 1.2 metres and a length as 2.5 metres, the assumptions barrier draw also uses, in illustrative runs:
| Run | Widths out | Turn covered | Extra ground | In lengths |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three wide for a quarter circle, then cover | 2 | 90 degrees, 1.5708 | 2 x 1.2 x 1.5708 = 3.77m | about 1.5 |
| Four wide for a quarter circle | 3 | 90 degrees, 1.5708 | 3 x 1.2 x 1.5708 = 5.65m | about 2.3 |
| Three wide for 270 degrees of turns | 2 | 270 degrees, 4.7124 | 2 x 1.2 x 4.7124 = 11.31m | about 4.5 |
The straights cost nothing extra, so the turns covered matter more than the race distance. Ground is not the only cost: with no runner in front, the horse also has nothing to break the wind.
Reading it in replays and stewards' reports
A form line gives a horse's positions at the 800m and the 400m, not how far it was from the fence, so a wide run is invisible in the figures. Two places show it. The stewards' report: Racing Queensland's report for Eagle Farm on 21 September 2019 records two runners that raced three wide without cover throughout, and others that raced wide from the 600m or 500m. And the replay, where you can count the horses between your runner and the fence on each turn.
Harness form uses codes. Harness Racing Australia's key to Victorian stewards' comments lists CW for caught wide, CWE for caught wide early and 3W for 3 wide throughout.
Adjusting the next start's price
Say a runner was beaten 1.8 lengths into 4th after racing four wide for a quarter circle, about 2.3 lengths of extra ground (illustrative). Credit it some of that, not all, say 1 length, and it finishes within a length of the winner on your corrected figure.
If that lifts your chance next start from 10% (a fair $10.00) to 13% (a fair 1 / 0.13 = $7.69), an illustrative $9.00 is 9.00 x 0.13 - 1 = 17% over your price. Its expected value is 10 x (0.13 x 9.00 - 1) = +$1.70 per $10, an average over many such bets. Give no credit, because it races wide by habit, and the same $9.00 has an expected value of 10 x (0.10 x 9.00 - 1) = -$1.00.
Credit a wide run when the draw or the race shape caused it, and give none when the horse puts itself there, such as one that lugs out on turns. Then check today's map in speed maps: a runner drawn wide again may be caught wide again, while a run in the box seat would be a different race.
Risk: Betting involves risk. The credit you give a wide run is a judgement, a horse can be unlucky twice, and a +EV bet can still lose, and often does. See responsible gambling.
Where B337 fits
B337 does not watch replays or rate runs. Its Terminal's flucs show whether a runner coming off a wide run firmed or drifted, beside prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports. How to read a form guide covers the rest of the card. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. The price may already allow for the wide run. See responsible gambling.