ATS means against the spread: a team's results counted against the line, which US coverage calls the spread, instead of as wins and losses. A team covers when its score, after the line is applied, beats its opponent's, so a 9-7-1 ATS record is nine covers, seven misses and one push (the margin landed exactly on the line).
In Australian terms it is a team's record at the line, and US terms such as the spread are translated in the US sports betting guide.
How an ATS record is counted
With illustrative NFL-style lines and scores for one team over six games:
| Game | Team A's line | Score, Team A first | Head to head | Against the line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -6.5 | 27-20 | Won | Covered: 27 - 6.5 = 20.5 beats 20 |
| 2 | -3.5 | 24-21 | Won | Missed: 24 - 3.5 = 20.5 trails 21 |
| 3 | +2.5 | 17-20 | Lost | Missed: 17 + 2.5 = 19.5 trails 20 |
| 4 | -9.5 | 31-24 | Won | Missed: 31 - 9.5 = 21.5 trails 24 |
| 5 | +4.5 | 20-23 | Lost | Covered: 20 + 4.5 = 24.5 beats 23 |
| 6 | -3 | 23-20 | Won | Push: 23 - 3 = 20, level |
Team A won four games but went 2-3-1 against the line. The push needs a whole-number line, which the NSW rule book for authorised sports bookmakers allows only by agreement: its default points start is a half point (clause 5.1.3). The same count works for NFL line betting, NBA line betting and a pick'em line of 0. Check which line a quoted record uses, opening or closing: a 7-point win covers -6.5 but not -7.5.
ATS records against head to head records
A head to head record (straight up, or SU, in US coverage) counts wins. An ATS record counts results against what the line expected, and the line has already priced each team's strength. So a strong team can win by 7 laying 9.5 and miss (game 4), while a team getting 4.5 can lose by 3 and cover (game 5).
Betting a team ATS is line betting, so an ATS record also shows what backing that team on the line every week would have paid. At $1.90 a bet the break-even strike rate is 1 / 1.90 = 52.6%. Team A's six games at $10 each lost $12: two covers won $9 each, three misses lost $10 each and the push returned its stake under a refund rule (a dead heat rule returns half of $19, $9.50).
Why ATS records are noisy
A line is set where the market expects each side to cover about half the time, so each game is close to a coin toss. Over a 17-game NFL season (the 2026 schedule, released 14 May 2026), a team with a true 50% chance each week finishes with 5 to 12 covers about 95% of the time. It goes 11-6 or better 16.6% of the time, so about five of the 32 teams can get there on luck alone.
Example: Of the 2 to the power 17 = 131,072 equally likely cover-or-miss sequences, 21,778 hold 11 or more covers: 21,778 / 131,072 = 16.6%, and 32 x 16.6% = 5.3 teams. With 3,214 holding 4 or fewer covers and 3,214 holding 13 or more, 5 to 12 covers take 1 - 6,428 / 131,072 = 95.1%. The 50% chance per game is an illustrative assumption.
An 82-game NBA season narrows the range without closing it: a coin-flip team still lands between 32 and 50 covers in 96.5% of seasons (in a spreadsheet, BINOM.DIST(50, 82, 0.5, TRUE) - BINOM.DIST(31, 82, 0.5, TRUE)). Splits such as "home underdog after a loss" shrink the sample further, and lines move once a team's form is known, so last season's covers are often priced into this season's numbers. Sample size in betting shows how many results it takes before a record says more than luck.
Comparing lines on the Terminal
An ATS record depends on which line you count, so note the line you took and the last line your bookmaker offered before the start. B337's sports board on the Terminal, the NBA included, puts each bookmaker's head to head, line and total prices in its own column, with price history (flucs). Prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports are read on a repeating cycle, and not every bookmaker prices every game, so confirm a line with your bookmaker before betting. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Past covers say little about the next game, and a long run of line bets can finish behind even at fair prices. See responsible gambling for limits and support.