Tote approximates are the dividends the tote would pay on each runner if betting closed at that moment. Each one is the pool so far, less the operator's commission, divided by the money on that runner, shown per $1. Approx is short for approximate dividend. They are estimates, not prices, because the pool keeps growing until betting closes and your bet is paid the dividend declared after the result.
That gap can be large. With illustrative figures, a runner showing $6.20 five minutes before the jump can be declared at $5.10, which turns a $40 winning bet from the $248 the screen suggested into $204.
How an approximate is worked out
For the final dividend, Queensland's Wagering Rule takes refunds and commission out of the pool (s 100) and divides what is left by the units on the winner (s 106). That rule is in effect from 22 September 2026. An approximate runs the same division on every runner, using the pool as it stands:
approximate = pool so far x (1 - commission) / bets on the runner so far
With an illustrative 15% commission, an input for the arithmetic rather than any operator's rate, five minutes before the jump:
| Step | Working | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Win pool so far | Every win bet placed | $31,000 |
| Less an illustrative 15% commission | $31,000 x 0.85 | $26,350 |
| Bets on Runner 5 so far | From the pool | $4,250 |
| Approximate for Runner 5 | $26,350 / $4,250 | $6.20 |
The same figure can be read from Runner 5's share of the pool. It holds $4,250 / $31,000 = 13.7% of the bets, and approximate = (1 - commission) / share = 0.85 / 0.1371 = $6.20. The size of the pool drops out of that sum. What sets an approximate is the runner's share of the money, so the figure only moves when the share does.
Place pools can have approximates too. The dividend they estimate is the runner's part of the net place pool, a third when three places are paid and a half when two are, divided by the place money on that runner (Queensland's Wagering Rule, ss 110 and 112), so late place money moves a place figure just as late win money moves a win one.
The final dividend also goes through rounding down, and a heavily backed winner can be paid a minimum dividend instead, as how tote dividends are calculated shows.
Why approximates drift as late money arrives
Every bet after you look changes the shares. Money for other runners lifts your runner's approximate, because the pool grows while its money stays put. Money for your runner cuts it. In the worked example, Runner 5 goes on to win, and $11,000 more arrives before betting closes, $2,750 of it for Runner 5:
| Five minutes out | When betting closes | |
|---|---|---|
| Win pool | $31,000 | $42,000 |
| Pool after the 15% input | $26,350 | $35,700 |
| Bets on Runner 5 | $4,250 | $7,000 |
| Runner 5's share of the bets | 13.7% | 16.7% |
| Runner 5's figure | Approximate $6.20 | Dividend $35,700 / $7,000 = $5.10 |
| A $40 bet if Runner 5 wins | $248 on screen | $204 paid |
The two kinds of late money pulled against each other. Had only the $8,250 for other runners arrived, Runner 5 would have paid $39,250 x 0.85 / $4,250 = $7.85. Had only its own $2,750 arrived, it would have paid $33,750 x 0.85 / $7,000 = $4.098, declared $4.05 after rounding down.
A quarter of the late money backed Runner 5, against the 13.7% of the pool it held five minutes out, so its share rose and the dividend fell. Late money keeps arriving until betting closes. Some of it reacts to what happens near the jump, such as a late scratching or a move in fixed or exchange prices. A single large bet can land at any moment.
A late scratching moves every approximate at once
When a runner is scratched, the bets on it are refunded and leave the pool, while the bets on every other runner stay. The tote rules gazetted in WA in 2010 refund a bet on a scratched selection (rule 9.1), while a double, quaddie or BIG6 moves it to a substitute instead (rule 9.2(a)). Each remaining runner's share rises, so every approximate falls together.
Say the scratched runner held 10% of the pool five minutes out. Runner 5's figure would drop by the same 10% before any new money arrived: $31,000 x 0.90 x 0.85 / $4,250 = $5.58. A tote bet takes no cents-in-the-dollar deduction; the smaller pool lowers the dividends instead.
Reading an approximate against a fixed price and the exchange
An approximate, a fixed price and an exchange price answer different questions. The approximate is what the pool would pay if it closed now. The fixed price is what a bookmaker will pay on a bet struck at that moment, and the exchange price shows where the wider market puts the runner's chance. With illustrative prices for Runner 5 at the same moment:
| Price | What it tells you | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Tote approximate | What the pool would pay if it closed now | $6.20 |
| Fixed price at Bookmaker A | What a bet struck now returns per $1, deductions aside | $5.50 |
| Exchange back $5.70, lay $5.90 | The market's view of the chance: a midpoint of $5.80, so 1 / 5.80 = 17.2% | 17.2% |
| Tote figure if the pool ends up agreeing with the exchange | (1 - commission) x midpoint = 0.85 x 5.80 | $4.93 |
On an exchange, the back price is the best price available to back the runner and the lay price the best available to bet against it; the exchange price as fair odds explains why the midpoint between them is used as a fair price, and its limits.
The last row is the useful one. If the pool's money finishes in line with the exchange's 17.2%, the dividend lands near $4.93, so a $6.20 approximate can mean money still to come rather than a bargain. Here the final $5.10 landed much nearer that figure than the $6.20 approximate, and the fixed $5.50 would have paid $40 x 5.50 = $220 against the tote's $204.
Whether pools settle near the exchange-implied figure on the races you bet is something only your own records can show. Fixed odds vs tote sets out a test you can run on winners.
Risk: Betting involves risk. An exchange price is the market's estimate of a chance, not the runner's real chance, and a price that beats the final dividend still loses whenever the runner does. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Exotic approximates
Exotic pools have approximates too, worked the same way for each combination: the net exotic pool divided by the money on that combination. Three things make them harder to read:
- There are many more combinations. A 9-runner race has 9 x 8 / 2 = 36 quinellas, 9 x 8 = 72 exactas and 9 x 8 x 7 = 504 trifectas, so each one holds a sliver of its pool.
- Thin money moves further. With illustrative figures, a quinella combination carrying $80 of an $8,000 pool, $6,800 after the 15% input, shows $6,800 / $80 = $85.00. One more $40 ticket on it takes the net pool to $8,040 x 0.85 = $6,834 and the figure to $6,834 / $120 = $56.95.
- Multi-leg pools change as legs are run. Before the last leg of a double or quaddie, only tickets that landed the earlier legs are still alive, so any figure for the last leg can only describe the money on those tickets.
Which exotic approximates you can see, if any, depends on the operator's display. A flexi ticket is paid its percentage of the declared dividend, so it inherits every move the combination's figure makes before the close.
When to trust an approximate
How far an approximate can still move depends on how much money is still to come and where it goes. Give it more weight when:
- the race is close to the jump, so less betting time is left;
- the pool is large next to any single bet that could still arrive;
- it sits close to the exchange-implied figure and the best fixed price;
- no scratching is pending.
Give it less weight when it is early, the pool is small, the figure is far above the other markets, or the pool is an exotic. Your own bet counts as late money too, so a stake that is a large share of the money on the runner moves the figure against you. Timing a tote bet around all this is covered in tote betting strategy.
Mistakes people make with approximates
- Treating the approximate as the price. In the worked example, $40 on Runner 5 looked like $248 and paid $204, which is $44 less.
- Comparing an early approximate with a fixed price you can take now. The $6.20 approximate beat the fixed $5.50 by 70c five minutes out, but the final dividend finished 40c below the fixed price, so the tote bet paid $40 x (5.50 - 5.10) = $16 less than the fixed bet would have.
- Forgetting a pending scratching. A scratched runner holding 10% of the pool cut Runner 5's figure from $6.20 to $5.58 before any new money arrived.
- Reading a thin exotic approximate as firm. One $40 ticket moved the quinella combination from $85.00 to $56.95.
- Ignoring your own bet. Your stake joins the money on your runner and lowers its dividend, and tote betting works an example on a $100,000 pool.
The prices you can line up beside an approximate
The exchange-implied figure in that comparison starts from prices you can see before the jump. B337's Terminal carries fixed racing and sports prices from 40+ bookmakers, one column per bookmaker, with exchange back and lay prices beside them, so the fixed price and the back and lay you take a midpoint from sit on one screen. The final dividend is the one figure no board can show early: a tote dividend cannot be compared in advance, because it does not exist until it is declared.
The Terminal's prices are read on a repeating cycle, not tick by tick, so one can trail the bookmaker's own; the price in your bookmaker account is the one you bet at. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds. Bookmaker names are trade marks of their owners. B337 is not affiliated with them. Horse racing betting covers every other way a race can be priced.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Lining up prices tells you which one is highest at that moment, not which runner will win, and prices keep moving after you look. See responsible gambling for limits and support.