The martingale betting system is a staking rule: double the stake after every loss, and go back to the first stake after a win. At $2.00 any win leaves the run one first stake ahead. With a $10 first stake, eight losses in a row cost $2,550, and the ninth bet needs $2,560 to finish $10 ahead.
Martingale does not work as a way to beat the odds. Doubling up after a loss changes neither the chance of a win nor the price, so at bookmaker prices the average result stays negative. It swaps a steady run of $10 wins for a rare loss in the thousands, and a bankroll, a bookmaker's stake cap or a deposit limit ends the run before the win it is waiting for.
How martingale works at $2.00
The martingale strategy needs two choices: a first stake and a price. After a loss, double the stake; after a win, go back to the first stake. At $2.00 a winning bet returns twice its stake, so its profit equals everything lost since the last win plus the first stake. With an illustrative $10 first stake:
| Bet in the run | Stake | Lost so far if this bet loses | Run profit if this bet wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10 | $10 | +$10 |
| 2 | $20 | $30 | +$10 |
| 3 | $40 | $70 | +$10 |
| 4 | $80 | $150 | +$10 |
| 5 | $160 | $310 | +$10 |
| 6 | $320 | $630 | +$10 |
| 7 | $640 | $1,270 | +$10 |
| 8 | $1,280 | $2,550 | +$10 |
| 9 | $2,560 | $5,110 | +$10 |
Two formulas give any row. The stake on bet n = first stake x 2 to the power (n - 1), so bet 5 is $10 x 16 = $160. The loss after k straight losses = first stake x (2 to the power k - 1), so five losses cost $10 x 31 = $310.
The stake after 8 losses and the bankroll it needs
After eight straight losses the run is $10 x 255 = $2,550 down, and the ninth stake is $10 x 256 = $2,560. Placing it takes $2,550 + $2,560 = $5,110 behind the run, all to finish $10 ahead. A bankroll of $2,550 survives exactly eight losses and cannot place the ninth bet.
How often does that happen? A $2.00 bookmaker price usually carries a margin, so suppose the true chance of each bet is 48% (illustrative). A run reaches eight straight losses with chance 0.52 to the power 8 = 0.535%, about 1 run in 187. That looks rare, but runs are short, about 2.07 bets on average, so they pile up quickly:
| Runs played | About this many bets | Chance of at least one 8-loss run |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 104 | 23.5% |
| 100 | 207 | 41.5% |
| 200 | 414 | 65.8% |
| 500 | 1,036 | 93.1% |
The working for 200 runs: 1 - (1 - 0.00535) to the power 200 = 1 - 0.342 = 0.658. Each finished run wins $10, so it takes 255 winning runs to pay for one 8-loss run, and at 1 in 187 the bust usually comes first.
Does martingale work? What the average run is worth
Take the same 48% chance and a bankroll that covers eight losses. The stake on the next bet in a run doubles while the chance of reaching it falls to 0.52 of the last, so the average run stakes $10 x (1 + 1.04 + 1.04 to the power 2 + ... + 1.04 to the power 7) = $10 x 9.214 = $92.14. Each bet's edge is 0.48 x 2.00 - 1 = -4%, so the average run loses 0.04 x $92.14 = $3.69.
Checked the other way: 99.47% of runs win $10, worth 0.99465 x $10 = $9.9465 on average, and 0.5346% lose $2,550, worth 0.00534597 x $2,550 = $13.6322. The difference is -$3.6857, about -$3.69 a run.
With a fair 50% chance and no margin at all, the same sum gives 255/256 x $10 - 1/256 x $2,550 = $9.96 - $9.96 = $0, exactly what a single $10 bet is worth. Doubling creates nothing. It moves the loss into one rare, large result and multiplies the money put through: the average run stakes $80 at a fair 50% chance and $92.14 at 48%, eight to nine times its $10 target.
Doubling after wins instead, the reverse martingale or Paroli, fails the same way, as betting systems that don't work shows alongside Fibonacci, D'Alembert and Labouchere.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Most martingale runs end in a small win, which makes the system feel safe until the run that costs hundreds of wins arrives. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Lines at $1.90 and racing at longer prices
Plain doubling only wins back a run plus the first stake at $2.00 or longer. At $1.90 a win's profit is 0.90 times the stake, so the run itself goes backwards once it is four losses deep: lose $10, $20, $40 and $80 ($150), and a $160 winner makes $160 x 0.90 = $144 profit, a $6 loss on the run.
To recover the run plus $10, each stake must be (lost so far + $10) / (odds - 1), so at $1.90 the run opens at $10 / 0.90 = $11.11. From there the stake multiplies by about 2.1 after every loss: the ninth stake is $4,383.75, and placing it takes $8,319.13 in all.
Longer prices slow the climb but lengthen the runs. At $4.00 the run opens at $10 / 3 = $3.33 and the recovery stake grows by a third after each loss, so the 16th bet in a run is $249.44, with $987.75 staked in all to win $10. But if the true chance is 23.75% (illustrative, below the 25% that $4.00 implies, because of the margin), a run of eight losses turns up about 1 run in 9 and a run of 15 about 1 run in 58. Losing streaks in betting shows how long runs get at each price.
Bet limits, table limits and account restrictions end the run
Martingale assumes nothing stops the doubling. Several things do, and each one ends the run with its losses locked in:
- Table limits: on a casino table, where the system is best known, the table maximum caps the stake.
- Bookmaker stake caps: a bookmaker decides how much it will accept on each bet, which can differ by market and by account, so a $2,560 ninth stake may be cut back or refused.
- Account restrictions: bookmakers can limit an account's stakes or close it under their terms, as why bookmakers restrict accounts explains.
- The price: the $2.00 you started at may be $1.85 by the time the doubled stake goes on.
- Deposit limits: under the National Consumer Protection Framework, Australian online bookmakers must offer them, and a decrease applies at once while an increase waits 7 days. A deposit limit set before you start is the cap a losing run cannot argue with, and it is never something to work around.
- Credit: credit cards, credit-linked wallets and digital currency have been banned for online and phone wagering since 11 June 2024. Never borrow to fund a doubled stake, because that turns a betting loss into a debt.
Settlements that are neither a clean win nor a loss break the arithmetic too. A refunded bet, such as one on a runner scratched on race day, returns the stake and leaves the run where it was, and how an abandoned game settles depends on your bookmaker's terms. A draw in a three-way soccer market loses a bet on either team. A late scratching in your race can bring a deduction, declared by the stewards, on your winner, so the win falls short of the run.
A dead heat cuts the win short. Under the Racing NSW Rules of Betting for NSW on-course bookmakers (BR 16), a dead heat for first pays half the ticket's face value. On the fourth bet of a run, $80 at $2.00, that is $160 / 2 = $80: your stake back, with the run still $70 down. Online bookmakers set their own dead heat rules, so check your bookmaker's terms.
Martingale is chasing losses with a formula
Chasing losses means raising stakes, or betting more often, to win back money already lost. Martingale is that habit written as a rule: every stake is set by how much the run has lost, so it bets the most exactly when you are furthest behind. Eight $10 losses at level stakes cost $80; the same eight losses under martingale cost $2,550. A betting strategy can size stakes from the price and the bankroll instead.
The belief that keeps a run going is that a win is due. It is not: at a true 48% chance, the ninth bet wins 48% of the time however many losses came before, which is the gambler's fallacy. Chasing losses explains why the urge is strong and how to step away from it.
Chasing is also one of the clearest signs that betting is costing more than it should. The Problem Gambling Severity Index, the nine-question self-check Gambling Help Online offers, asks how often you have gone back another day to try to win back money you lost.
Help if betting is no longer fun
Betting more than you planned, chasing losses, hiding your betting or borrowing to keep going are signs of a gambling problem. Help is free:
- Gambling Help Online offers free, confidential counselling by phone on 1800 858 858 and online, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, for you or for family and friends.
- BetStop, the National Self-Exclusion Register, is a free Australian Government service launched on 21 August 2023. One registration covers every online and phone wagering provider licensed in Australia, for 3 months up to a lifetime, and it can be extended but not shortened. BetStop explained covers how it works.
- Australian online bookmakers must offer deposit limits and a simple way to close your account.
- The National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007 (weekdays) helps with money worries, and Lifeline on 13 11 14 offers crisis support. Call 000 in an emergency.
For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Risk: Betting involves risk. No staking pattern turns bets with a negative edge into winning ones, and doubling after losses makes each losing run more expensive than the last. See responsible gambling for limits and support.