An each way betting strategy rests on one test: each way is worth more than the same outlay on the win only if its place half is better value than its win half. Set chance of placing x place price against chance of winning x win price: each way needs the first to be bigger. When neither half is value, each way pays out more often in smaller amounts and still loses on average.
Each way betting covers how the bet is settled, and horse racing betting the other racing bets.
The break-even place price
A place price is value only when its implied probability, 1 / place price, is below the runner's chance of a placing: an illustrative $3.80 implies 1 / 3.80 = 26.3%, so it needs a top-three chance above 26.3%. Turned round, that gives the break-even price:
break-even place price = 1 / chance of placing
| Chance of placing (illustrative) | Break-even place price | $10 each way, placing without a win |
|---|---|---|
| 40% | 1 / 0.40 = $2.50 | $10 x 2.50 = $25.00 back on $20 |
| 25% | 1 / 0.25 = $4.00 | $10 x 4.00 = $40.00 back on $20 |
Two thresholds are at work. At $2.00 a placing pays back both stakes; at the break-even price the place half stops losing on average. A price can clear one and miss the other: at a 25% chance, $3.00 returns $30 on $20 when the runner places, yet sits below the $4.00 that chance deserves.
Against the same $20 on the win, over many races:
average gain of $10 each way over $20 to win = $10 x (chance of placing x place price - chance of winning x win price)
So the place half's edge, offered price / fair price - 1, must beat the win half's. The chances can come from your own estimate, an exchange place market, or the win prices through a model such as Harville, which how place odds are calculated works through.
Each way against a $20 win bet over 100 races
Take an illustrative runner at $11.00 to win with true chances of 8% to win and 25% to finish in the first three. Over 100 hypothetical races it wins 8 times, runs second or third 17 times and misses the places 75 times; the place half pays on all 25 top-three finishes.
| $2,000 staked over 100 races | Win half returns | Place half returns | Total back | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20 win only at $11.00 | 8 x $220 = $1,760 | None | $1,760 | -$240 |
| $10 each way, $3.20 to place | 8 x $110 = $880 | 25 x $32 = $800 | $1,680 | -$320 |
| $10 each way, $3.80 to place | 8 x $110 = $880 | 25 x $38 = $950 | $1,830 | -$170 |
| $10 each way, $4.00 to place | 8 x $110 = $880 | 25 x $40 = $1,000 | $1,880 | -$120 |
Each way matches the win bet when 25 x $10 x place price = 8 x $110, a place price of $880 / $250 = $3.52: below it each way does worse, above it better. The place half breaks even on its own at $4.00, where the whole loss is the win half's $120, because $11.00 is below the 1 / 0.08 = $12.50 an 8% chance deserves.
Each way also spreads the money: the win bet pays in 8 races of 100, while each way at $3.80 shows a profit in 25. Real runs wander: the win count's standard deviation is sqrt(100 x 0.08 x 0.92), about 2.7, and three wins either way moves the win bet by 3 x $220 = $660.
The each way calculator works out one bet's returns beside the same money on the win. Its Break even place price figure is the first threshold above, where a placing pays back both stakes ($2.00 with no dead heat), not 1 / chance of placing.
Risk: Betting involves risk. These races are hypothetical, and even at a value place price this runner misses the places three times in four. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Why longer prices in bigger fields suit each way
A runner's chance of placing is at least its chance of winning, so its place price sits below its win price: at $2.00 or shorter, the place price is under $2.00 and a placing without a win loses money. With illustrative chances:
| Runner | Win | First three | Placings that are wins | Fair place price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short favourite | 50% | 80% | 50 / 80 = 62.5% | 1 / 0.80 = $1.25 |
| The $11.00 runner | 8% | 25% | 8 / 25 = 32.0% | 1 / 0.25 = $4.00 |
| Long shot | 3% | 11% | 3 / 11 = 27.3% | 1 / 0.11 = $9.09 |
Even at a fair $1.25, the favourite returns $12.50 on $20 when it places without winning, and most of its placings are wins the win half already pays for. At longer prices more placings come without a win, so the place half pays in races the win bet loses.
Field size sets the room. Under the tote rules Racing and Wagering Western Australia adopted (WA Government Gazette No. 149, 3 August 2010), 8 or more runners at final scratchings pays three places and 5 to 7 pays two. Racing NSW's Rules of Betting give NSW on-course each way bets the same split, counted when the bet is made (BR 17); online bookmakers set their own.
Three places among 14 runners leave the average runner a 3 / 14 = 21.4% chance of placing, against 3 / 8 = 37.5% among 8, so fair place prices run longer in big fields; value still turns on the break-even test.
| Your fair prices show | Bet to consider |
|---|---|
| Both halves above break-even | Each way, or two singles sized to each edge |
| Only one half above | That half on its own |
| Neither above | No bet: each way only spreads the loss |
Risk: Betting involves risk. A long shot with a value place price still misses the places 89 times in 100 at an illustrative 11% chance, so losing runs can be long. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Checking a bookmaker place price against the exchange
An exchange place market is a second opinion on your estimate, with no bookmaker margin built in. Use the one paying the same number of places as your bookmaker's terms, and close to the jump take the midpoint between the chances the back and lay prices imply as the fair estimate. With illustrative prices:
| Prices | Win | Place |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange back and lay | $12.00 and $13.00 | $3.90 and $4.10 |
| Exchange midpoint of the chances | $12.48 | $3.9975 |
| Bookmaker A | $11.00 | $3.80 |
| Bookmaker B | $10.00 | $4.40 |
Averaging the chances rather than the prices is what gives those midpoints: (1 / 12.00 + 1 / 13.00) / 2 = 8.0128%, a fair price of $12.48, and (1 / 3.90 + 1 / 4.10) / 2 = 25.0156%, a fair price of $3.9975.
With edge = offered price / fair price - 1, Bookmaker A is 11.00 / 12.48 - 1 = -11.9% to win and 3.80 / 3.9975 - 1 = -4.9% to place. Bookmaker B is 10.00 / 12.48 - 1 = -19.9% and 4.40 / 3.9975 - 1 = +10.1%. An each way bet's edge is the average of its two halves:
| $20 spent as | Working | Estimated average |
|---|---|---|
| Win only at A | $20 x (11.00 / 12.48 - 1) | -$2.37 |
| Each way at A | $10 x (11.00 / 12.48 - 1) + $10 x (3.80 / 3.9975 - 1) | -$1.68 |
| Each way at B | $10 x (10.00 / 12.48 - 1) + $10 x (4.40 / 3.9975 - 1) | -$0.98 |
| Win at A, place at B | $10 x (11.00 / 12.48 - 1) + $10 x (4.40 / 3.9975 - 1) | -$0.18 |
| Place only at B | $20 x (4.40 / 3.9975 - 1) | +$2.01 |
Two single bets take each half where it is priced best, and only the place bet alone beats the estimate, because the win price is below fair everywhere.
Exchange commission on net winnings trims what a back price is worth, and a wide or thin market makes the midpoint a weaker guide. Exchange place markets covers how those markets work.
Risk: Betting involves risk. The midpoint estimates a fair price; it does not forecast the race, so a place bet 10% above it still loses whenever the runner misses the places. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Dead heats and scratchings on the place half
At Bookmaker B's illustrative $4.40, a $10 place half that places outright returns $44. Four events change that:
| What happens | How the place half settles | $10 at $4.40 |
|---|---|---|
| Your runner is scratched | Refunded with the win half | $20 back |
| Two-way dead heat for the last paid place | Half the face value (Racing NSW BR 16); the return divided by 2 (WA Rules of Wagering 2005, r 58) | $44 / 2 = $22.00 |
| Late scratching of another runner after your bet | Less a place deduction on the face value (BR 14(4)) | $44 x (1 - 0.09) = $40.04 at an illustrative 9c |
| Tote field falls from 8 to 7 before final scratchings | Two places paid | A third place returns nothing |
The dead heat cuts a $24 profit on the $20 bet to $2; online bookmakers publish their own rules, and dead heat rules compares the rule books.
If your bookmaker takes the deduction off the winnings only, the payout is $10 + $34 x (1 - 0.09) = $40.94 instead; scratchings and deductions compares the two readings. Check your bookmaker's terms, then compare the effective price with the exchange place market after the scratching, since your runner's chance has changed too. A scratching after final scratchings leaves the tote's places unchanged.
Mistakes that make each way cost more
- Judging on the win price alone: Bookmaker A had the longer win price, yet its each way bet has an estimated average of -$1.68 against -$0.98 at Bookmaker B, whose place price is above fair.
- Counting a profitable placing as a good bet: at $3.20 to place a placing returns $32 on $20, yet over 100 races that bet lost $80 more than the win bet.
- Using a three-place chance in a two-place race: if an illustrative 25% top-three chance is 16% for the top two, break-even moves from $4.00 to 1 / 0.16 = $6.25.
- Using the exchange back price as fair: $4.40 against the $3.90 back price looks 4.40 / 3.90 - 1 = 12.8% over, while against the $3.9975 midpoint of the two chances it is 10.1%.
Risk: Betting involves risk. These are estimates at illustrative prices, and each way still loses both halves whenever the runner misses the places. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Comparing win and place prices before you bet
The Terminal shows prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports, with Betfair back and lay beside them. Prices are read on a repeating cycle and can trail the bookmaker's own, so confirm yours in your bookmaker account before you bet.
A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds. B337 does not take bets or rate runners. Betfair is a trade mark of its owner, and B337 is not affiliated with it.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Comparing prices does not change how often a runner places, and there is no guarantee of profit from each way bets at any price. See responsible gambling for limits and support.