A rated price is the price you put on a runner from your own ratings: rated price = 1 / the win chance your ratings give it, with no bookmaker margin added. Rate a horse a 19% chance and its rated price is 1 / 0.19 = $5.26. A bookmaker's $6.40 (illustrative prices) is then 6.40 / 5.2632 - 1 = 21.6% longer than your rating, which Australian punters call overs, or an overlay.
Rated odds means the same thing. It is the fair price a betting strategy judges each bet against, and only as good as the ratings behind it: a number to test, not a fact.
How a rated price is built
- Rate every runner on one scale, from form, class, weight, barrier and the likely pace.
- Turn the ratings into raw win chances.
- Scale the chances so the field adds up to exactly 100%, by dividing each by the total.
- Price each runner at 1 / its chance.
Horse racing ratings compares kinds of rating and ways to convert them, and how to frame a betting market prices a whole field step by step. A rated price only makes sense inside a full 100% frame, because a runner's chance depends on the rest of the field.
An example frame
Example: An illustrative six-runner race, not a real one, with your chances already scaled to 100% and one bookmaker's prices beside them.
| Runner | Your chance | Rated price: 1 / chance | Bookmaker price | Overs or unders: price x your chance - 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Runner 1 | 30% | $3.33 | $2.60 | -22.0% |
| Runner 2 | 24% | $4.17 | $4.40 | +5.6% |
| Runner 3 | 19% | $5.26 | $6.40 | +21.6% |
| Runner 4 | 11% | $9.09 | $7.50 | -17.5% |
| Runner 5 | 10% | $10.00 | $11.00 | +10.0% |
| Runner 6 | 6% | $16.67 | $12.00 | -28.0% |
The bookmaker's prices add up to 107.6% (1 / 2.60 + 1 / 4.40 and so on), the margin your frame leaves out.
Rated price vs market price
| Rated price | Market price | |
|---|---|---|
| Who sets it | You, or the ratings service you use | Each bookmaker, or backers and layers on the exchange |
| Margin | None: the frame adds up to 100% | Built in, so the market adds up to more than 100% |
| When it changes | When you re-rate, such as after a scratching | With bets, news and other bookmakers' moves |
| What it answers | What the runner is worth on your numbers | What you can bet at now |
Three runners are overs. Set a minimum overs before you bet, big enough to cover rating error: at 15%, Runner 2 needs 1.15 / 0.24 = about $4.79 (so $4.80 or longer) and Runner 5 needs 1.15 / 0.10 = $11.50, so only Runner 3 qualifies. A runner that is overs on your frame but longer still on the exchange suggests your rating has missed something. A tissue price is the whole-market version: a draft set of prices for the field, made before betting opens.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Runner 3 is overs on your ratings and, at a 19% chance, still loses about 81 races in 100. See responsible gambling for limits and support.
Mistakes with rated prices
- Rating after seeing the market, which drags your numbers towards the prices you meant to test.
- Pricing raw chances that add up to more than 100%, which makes every rated price too short.
- Treating a rated price as exact: if Runner 3 is really a 17% chance, not 19%, its rated price is $5.88 and $6.40 is only 8.8% overs.
- Never testing: compare your rated chances with results, and your prices with the closing prices, over a few hundred races.
Rated prices beside the Terminal
The numbers in your frame stay your own work, since B337 has no ratings engine, no model and no selections. The Terminal supplies the prices to hold them against, from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports, with the best available price on each runner picked out, Betfair back and lay, and the price history (flucs) of each price. For racing, its EV overlays measure each price against Betfair's market, a separate estimate that can disagree with your frame.
The board reads prices on a repeating cycle, so a figure on screen may lag: confirm it in your account before betting. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds. Betfair is a trade mark of its owner, and B337 is not affiliated with it.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Rated prices that have never been tested are guesses, and the market can know things your ratings miss. See responsible gambling for limits and support.