An opening price is the first price a bookmaker posts for a runner when it opens its market on a race. It is the first point on the runner's flucs, often marked as the open, and it is the bookmaker's own estimate, made before much money has been bet, which is why it is the price most likely to move.
When a market opens depends on what it is a market on. A market on the declared field of a race opens after that field is known; anything earlier is a futures market, which on a feature race can open weeks or months ahead. Western Australia's Rules of Wagering 2005 draw the same lines for RWWA's own fixed-odds betting: a futures wager is one placed before the final field is declared, and a before noms wager one placed before the first round of official nominations (r 62A). Futures betting on horse racing covers the all-in rules for those early markets.
Opening price vs starting price
| Opening price | Starting price (SP) | |
|---|---|---|
| Set by | Each bookmaker, for its own market | The official process for the meeting; Racing NSW's Rules of Betting define it as the odds the club declares as the starting odds (BR 1) |
| When | When that bookmaker's market opens | At the jump |
| Based on | The bookmaker's own estimate, before much money | The market after the money and the news |
| Bets paid at it | Bets struck at that price, at that bookmaker | Bets struck at SP |
For NSW TAB race meetings, Racing NSW says the SP has come from the NSW Official Price service since May 2017, built from the prices of the larger wagering operators. Starting price betting covers SP in full, and horse racing betting sets SP beside the tote and fixed odds.
What the opening price can tell you
Set beside the SP, the open shows where the market went. With illustrative prices for four runners in one race:
| Runner | Opening price | SP | Implied chance (1 / price), open to SP | Open against SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Runner 1 | $3.50 | $2.60 | 28.6% to 38.5% | 3.50 / 2.60 - 1 = 34.6% better |
| Runner 2 | $4.20 | $5.50 | 23.8% to 18.2% | 4.20 / 5.50 - 1 = 23.6% worse |
| Runner 3 | $9.00 | $8.50 | 11.1% to 11.8% | 9.00 / 8.50 - 1 = 5.9% better |
| Runner 4 | $15.00 | $26.00 | 6.7% to 3.8% | 15.00 / 26.00 - 1 = 42.3% worse |
Taking the open beat the SP on Runners 1 and 3 and cost a lot of price on Runners 2 and 4. Over many bets, how your prices compare with the final ones, closing line value, is a fairer test than any one race.
What the open cannot tell you is who was right. Runner 1 firming from $3.50 to $2.60 is money and opinion arriving, and even a plunge, the sharpest kind of firming, is not proof the runner will win.
Why early prices move most
- Thin money. The first bets on a runner are the first real information a bookmaker gets, so the price reacts to amounts that would barely register near the jump.
- News arrives later. Scratchings, track ratings, rider and gear changes often land after a market opens, and each one re-prices the field.
- The estimate gets tested. An opening price is one bookmaker's view of the race, and the rest of the market corrects it.
- Each bet can move the price. Under Queensland's Wagering Rule, an operator that accepts a bet at particular odds need not accept another at the same or similar odds (s 12(3)), which matters most while the money is thin.
Horse racing flucs shows how to read the whole line from the open to the jump.
Setting your price against the closing line
Closing lines on the Terminal record the last prices before the jump, and each runner's price history (flucs) shows how it got there, so you can set the price you took against where the market finished. The board lines up prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports beside Betfair back and lay. It reads them on a repeating cycle rather than tick by tick, so check the live price at your bookmaker before betting. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds. Bookmaker names are trade marks of their owners. B337 is not affiliated with them. Betfair is a trade mark of its owner, and B337 is not affiliated with it.
Risk: Betting involves risk. An opening price that beats the SP can still lose the race, and a runner backed early can drift, leaving you on a shorter price than it starts at. See responsible gambling for limits and support.