The favourite is the selection with the shortest price in a betting market: the runner, team or player the market rates most likely to win. In a race priced at illustrative odds of $3.25, $4.00, $5.50 and longer, the $3.25 runner is the favourite, and its price implies a chance of 1 / 3.25 = 30.8%. Being favourite means likelier than any single rival, not likely to win: this one is priced to lose about seven races in 10.
At the other end of the market sit the roughies, or long shots, the runners rated least likely to win.
Joint favourites and the starting price favourite
When two or more selections share the shortest price, they are equal favourites: two runners at $3.80 each imply 1 / 3.80 = 26.3% apiece, and neither is the favourite outright. British racing calls two of them joint favourites and three or more co-favourites.
A market has a favourite at every moment, but results usually name the starting price (SP) favourite, the shortest price when betting closes. At NSW TAB race meetings, Racing NSW takes the official price fluctuations and SP from the NSW Official Price, worked out from the prices of the larger wagering operators (checked October 2026). Bookmaker names are trade marks of their owners. B337 is not affiliated with them.
The favourite can also differ by bookmaker: with illustrative prices, Runner 2 at $3.60 and Runner 6 at $3.80 at one bookmaker, and $3.90 and $3.70 at another, gives each bookmaker a different favourite.
Favourite vs best chance
The favourite is the market's opinion, built from money and the margin that how betting odds work explains, and the market is not always right. Three things can separate it from the true best chance:
- The margin is not always spread evenly, and a bookmaker can shade a popular runner shorter than its chance alone would justify.
- One bookmaker's market is one opinion; other bookmakers, and the exchange, can disagree.
- Prices can lag news, such as a scratching, a track change or a late team change.
Whether favourites as a group return more or less per dollar than longer prices is the favourite-longshot bias, and it is something to measure, not assume: return per $1 = total returned / total staked. With illustrative numbers, favourites that won 74 of 250 races at an average winning price of $2.90 returned 74 x 2.90 / 250 = 85.8 cents per $1.
How favourites move with money
Money and news move prices, so the favourite can change hands before the jump. With illustrative prices:
| Time | Runner 2 | Runner 6 | Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market opens | $3.30 (30.3%) | $4.40 (22.7%) | Runner 2 |
| 30 minutes out | $3.60 (27.8%) | $3.70 (27.0%) | Runner 2 |
| 10 minutes out | $3.80 (26.3%) | $3.80 (26.3%) | Joint |
| The jump | $4.00 (25.0%) | $3.00 (33.3%) | Runner 6 |
Runner 6 firmed from 22.7% to 33.3%, which is 10.6 percentage points, while Runner 2 drifted. A firm price shows money arriving, not that the money is right.
A late scratching moves favourites too: the market is re-framed, and the stewards declare deductions in cents in the dollar on winning fixed-odds bets struck before it (Racing NSW Rules of Betting, BR 14), and your bookmaker's terms say how it applies them. If the scratched runner was the favourite, the deduction can be large; scratchings and deductions shows the sums.
The short-priced favourite
A short-priced favourite, often odds-on, is one the market rates a strong chance; Australian racing calls a heavily backed one a hot pot, listed in horse racing terms. At an illustrative $1.35, a $20 bet wins $7, so one loss costs as much as 20 / 7 = about 2.9 wins. Odds-on prices work the same way in every market.
Watching favourites on the Terminal
B337's Terminal shows prices from 40+ bookmakers across racing and sports, each bookmaker in its own column, so a favourite at one bookmaker and not another shows on one row. Price history (flucs) shows a favourite firm or drift and when the market changed its mind, and closing lines show the last prices before the jump.
Prices are collected on a repeating cycle, so a late move can reach the screen after it reaches the bookmaker; confirm the price before you bet. A free account opens a limited view of the Terminal with live odds.
Risk: Betting involves risk. Favourites lose often, a short price means each loss can cost several wins, and following market moves is no guarantee of profit. See responsible gambling for limits and support.